Climate change is an extreme shift in the global weather system caused by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrialization. This activity emits green gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, that trap heat in the atmosphere and lead to a rise in the planet’s temperature, commonly referred to as global warming. Despite Pakistan contributing less than 1 percent of the world’s greenhouse emissions, the country has consistently been ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world regarding climate change. The global effects are already extreme, and climatic changes, such as increased temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and radical weather conditions, are leading to social and financial upheaval. To understand why Pakistan suffers so much, it is necessary to examine the country’s peculiarities, the extent of the damage that can be observed, and the need for effective and practical solutions.

The greenhouse effect is a natural process that causes certain gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide and methane, to trap the sun’s heat, ensuring the Earth remains warm enough to support life. However, the fact that humans emit too much greenhouse gas, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels, clearing and destroying forests, and employing unwisely farming practices, has exacerbated this process to an unprecedented level and is causing the world to heat up faster than ever before. Pakistan’s contributions to global emissions are minimal, accounting for a share of less than one percent, or approximately 0.88 percent, of the world’s total emissions. However, due to the high level of deforestation, rapid urbanization, and traditional modes of farming activities in the country, local emissions and environmental stress are on the rise. The connection between global warming and Pakistan’s limited contribution to the problem has serious local impacts on the country, exacerbating already-existing weaknesses, including issues of scarce water, unpredictable weather, and unreliable agricultural systems.

Factors Making Pakistan Highly Vulnerable

Climate change issues are part of Pakistan’s peculiar position, being prone to environmental changes due to geographic, socioeconomic, institutional, and geopolitical factors. Physically, the nation is situated near the Himalayan mountains, which provide over 7,000 glaciers that offer essential water for most agricultural activities and everyday life. There is a rapid glacier melting, coupled with Pakistan having huge arid and semi-arid areas, thus making the country flood-prone as well as prone to droughts. According to socio-economic factors, the poverty level in Pakistan is very high. The primary sector of the economy is agriculture, which still employs approximately 40 percent of the population. It is highly susceptible to temperature fluctuations, rainfall changes, and weather catastrophes. Rapid growth in urban settings places even more pressure on limited resources, resulting in air pollution, overcrowding, and the proliferation of informal settlements. Institutionally, Pakistan’s ability to be adaptable is constrained by its inadequate infrastructure. This complicates the formulation of an adequate response to climate disasters. Water security is always a geopolitical threat, as India has a treaty on water, the Indus Waters Treaty. Water scarcity can be exacerbated by the disturbance or diversion of water flows, especially during times of regional tension, creating an impact on food security. All these linked weaknesses make Pakistan one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change exposures, despite its low emissions.

Impacts of Climate Change in Pakistan

• Pakistan has already warmed up extensively, with the average annual temperature increasing by about 0.5 °C since the 1960s. Estimations show that it will rise further by 1.31.5 C till 2050, which will aggravate heatwaves and put pressure on ecological systems
• Severe weather cases are creating extreme situations that are catastrophic. The 2022 floods displaced more than 33 million people, killed 1,700+ people, and caused USD 30,140 billion in damages. On the contrary, the Karachi and Sindh heatwave in 2015 took the lives of approximately 2,000 people, and high temperatures were up to 49 °C.
• The shortage of water has become a burning issue. The availability of water per head of the population plummeted to about 1,000 m³ in the present day, compared to 5,000 m³ in 1951, drawing Pakistan into the realm of water stress forever.
• There are over 7,000 glaciers in the country that melt at a high rate. This poses a greater risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), especially in northern regions such as Gilgit-Baltistan.
• Punjab also witnessed a close to 20 per cent decline in wheat harvest in 2018, posing a threat to food security, which is stewarded mainly through agriculture, which employs a proportion of the workforce (about 40 per cent).
• Warming, intense weather, shrinking water resources, melting glaciers, and broken agriculture are grim trends that constitute a harsh reality. Pakistan, despite its minor contribution to greenhouse gases, is experiencing severe and interconnected climate effects that endanger the country, its population, and its future.

The effects of climate change are not evenly distributed in Pakistan, as certain areas are particularly hard hit. The regions of Sindh and Balochistan experience major flooding during intense monsoons and persistent droughts, endangering livelihoods in rural areas. In the Northern regions, excessive melting of glaciers has led to a high occurrence of hazardous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which isolate communities and destroy infrastructure in the Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral regions. The Thar Desert is caught in a loop of malnutrition and chronic drought, where there is minimal provision of safe water. In the meantime, more extended periods of intense heat and air pollution are experienced in cities such as Karachi and Lahore, due to the destruction of vegetation and overpopulation. These geographical differences display that climate change in Pakistan is not only an environmental problem, but a truly social and geographical one.

Response So Far: Policies and Projects

Pakistan has made significant contributions to climate change, both through ambitious projects and policy restructuring. The Billion Tree Tsunami initiative effectively planted more than two billion trees, becoming internationally recognized, but also faced criticism related to oversight and transparency. The National Climate Change Policy (2012, revised 2021) and the Pakistan Climate Change Act (2017) were in place to mainstream the element of climate resilience in planning and the establishment of specific climate-related bodies, but they are underfunded and semi-active. At the international level, Pakistan is a member of the Paris Agreement and is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, provided it receives financial and technological assistance from foreign countries. Notwithstanding these measures, the distance between the policy and good practice remains significant.

What Needs to Change?

The climate crisis confronting Pakistan should involve the reinforcement of its climate governance, including sufficient funding and the authority of its climate institutions, as well as coordination at all levels of government. There should be an escalation of renewable energy (particularly, solar and wind) to minimize the reliance on fossil energy. There is an urgent need for effective water management, which involves the construction of small dams, modernization of irrigation systems, and watershed protection. Early warning systems and disaster preparedness should be increased, particularly in high-risk areas. Grassroots adaptation can be achieved by increasing climate education and awareness. Finally, Pakistan must take advantage of international climate finance, which involves accessing sources such as the Green Climate Fund, the IMF, and the World Bank, as a facilitating tool towards its development. Real progress can only be achieved via an integrated, well-funded, and science-led action.

Pakistan occupies a prominent position in the climate crisis, which is being disproportionately impacted by such emissions. The menace is not merely environmental, but also serious in social, economic, and political aspects. Development of resilience entails transitioning to action through effective policy, institutions, at the community level, and across borders. Sustainable planning must be based on science, and more funding, as well as quick and combined action, is required to protect Pakistan’s future. Without these, the country is at risk of further entrenching itself in a vicious cycle of disasters and poverty caused by climate change. It is high time to act and act together.

The Institute of Regional Studies (IRS) in collaboration with Pakistan House hosted the launch of the book titled, ‘The Lost War: Why the Taliban Re-emerged to Claim Victory in Afghanistan’, authored by Brigadier Ishaq Ahmed Khattak (Retd) at its premises.

Speaking at the event, the author reflected on his challenging yet rewarding journey as an author. He noted that capturing the memories of the tumultuous years during the US invasion posed significant complexities, especially in addressing the book’s central question: why the Taliban re-emerged to claim victory in Afghanistan. The author also described how his passion for writing about Afghan affairs began in 1998 during his posting in Peshawar, where frequent interactions with Afghans and the Taliban sparked his interest in the Afghan culture, history, and the struggle.

Addressing the gathering, Amb Jauhar Saleem, President of IRS, emphasized that while the global war on terrorism has concluded, achieving peace and stability in Afghanistan remains a significant challenge in the post-US withdrawal era, continuing to threaten regional and global security, particularly for Pakistan. He noted that Ishaq Khattak’s book, “The Lost War,” is not just a historical narrative but provides vital lessons for promoting lasting peace in Afghanistan.

Speaking on the occasion, Muhammad Athar Javed, DG Pakistan House, lamented that despite Pakistan’s fight in the global war against terrorism being the frontline state, its contributions and sacrifices had largely been unrecognized. Reflecting on the book subject, he said that the author while avoiding oversimplification, and undermining any country presented a natural flow of the events and major occurring during the peak of NATO mission.

Ambassador Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan, stated that ‘Ishaq Khattak’s book offers a realistic assessment of the events that enabled the Taliban’s resurgence and triumph after two decades of conflict’. ‘His analysis correctly highlights the governance issues under the Karzai and Ashraf Ghani administrations and the US’s failure to promote reconciliation as key factors in lingering the Afghan crisis’, he remarked.

Lt. Gen (r) Asif Yasin Malik, former Secretary Defence, praised the author for effectively leveraging his extensive experience with the land and its people to analyze events and their repercussions for Pakistan and the region. Lt. Gen Malik noted that the author’s greatest strength lies in guiding readers through historical events, linking them to present-day issues. ‘The book offers valuable insights for a diverse audience, from the general public to policymakers and historians’, he remarked.

Abdullah Gul, Chairman TJP, while describing the past occurring presented useful suggestions for future course of actions with regard to ongoing Afghan security problems. Hassan Khan, Journalist, Khyber News, stated that the book was a great contribution to the literature on the Afghan wars and conflicts, accurately depicting the events during the US invasion and realistically addressing the shortcomings of the NATO mission.

The event attracted a diverse audience of diplomats, researchers, students, and journalists.

Islamabad : Pakistan House, under the leadership of Director General Muhammad Athar Javed, and the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences at Bahria University Islamabad, represented by Principal and Dean Dr. Adam Saud, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to formalize a strategic partnership aimed at advancing research and development in critical areas. The signing ceremony took place at Bahria University Islamabad, marking the beginning of a collaborative journey between the two esteemed institutions.

This MoU outlines a framework for cooperation, with a focus on holding joint conferences and seminars, and embarking on collaborative projects that address pressing global and regional issues. Among the key topics of collaboration are climate change initiatives, strategic communication, geopolitical shifts, and psychological warfare. Recognizing the urgent need for comprehensive research and action on climate change, this partnership aims to develop innovative solutions and strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This includes interdisciplinary research, policy recommendations, and community engagement projects.

Both institutions will work together to explore the dynamics of strategic communication, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts, studying the methods and impacts of information dissemination in various geopolitical landscapes. The collaboration will focus on analyzing the evolving geopolitical environment, with an emphasis on understanding the implications of these changes for national and international security. Additionally, the partnership will delve into the complexities of psychological warfare, examining how psychological tactics are employed in conflicts and the effects on populations.
During the signing ceremony, Muhammad Athar Javed emphasized the importance of academic and research collaborations in addressing global challenges.

Introduction

Tech has played an indispensable role in forming relationships among nations, and the role of technology in international relations (IR) is no exception. The origins of technology can be traced back to the rudimentary tools of the Paleolithic era, and nowadays, it has reached the sophisticated digital technologies of the 21st century. It has always been a determining factor in states’ social, economic, and political dynamics. The development of technology not only improves the capacities of states and nations but also creates intricate issues that affect foreign relations on a global scale. While technological developments are basically restructuring international politics scales, they impact everything from diplomacy and warfare to economic development and international communication. As nations are navigating these changes, technology has become the central issue in the international arena today, dictating the new order of nations concerning the power and strategies of states.

Digital Diplomacy:

Digital tools have become essential in how states manage their external presence and relations. These media, from social media to virtual summits, are the tools that connect people who are geographically separated and offer a platform for real-time communication and diplomacy. This real-time lack of privacy can enhance the transparency level. Still, on the other hand, it may pose difficulties for diplomacy, as messages and policies are broadcasted and scrutinized worldwide simultaneously.

Cybersecurity:

As countries increasingly depend on digital platforms for governance and communication, cybersecurity becomes the core element in international relations. From cyber espionage and stealing national security secrets to attacks on critical infrastructure that can escalate international tension, a wide range of risks exist. This complex cybersecurity environment consists of state actors – governments -, non-state actors like hacker groups, and even private sector agents. An urgent need for strong cybersecurity and international collaboration among states to solve cyber threats has become unavoidable. The advent of technology, especially in information and communication, has brought forth a new era with technological advancements as pivotal factors in determining the distribution of power among nations. States that have developed the most advanced tech have very powerful means at their disposal in both economic and military sectors, thus changing the way power works worldwide and introducing a new hierarchy of digital power in international relations.

Artificial Intelligence (AI):

AI impacts global trade and economics by automating complex tasks automatically, optimizing logistics, and refining forecasting. AI trade systems expedite customs processes and trade documents; hence, cross-border dealings have no delays or costs. Economically, AI brings about substantial productivity improvements resulting from applying AI technology to optimize supply chains and manufacturing processes, as well as more precise demand forecasting and resource allocation. In addition, AI-assisted data mining assists nations and companies in finding economic trends. It helps them make strategic decisions more efficiently, affecting economic policies and trade agreements between states.

Blockchain Technology:

Blockchain’s effect on international economics is powerful, mainly because it gives more visibility and minimizes fraud in trade finance. Blockchain, as a distributed ledger technology, has an immutable and transparent mechanism for tracking the products from the point of making to its entry into the market. This technology is the basis for cryptocurrency currently fighting against traditional banking and monetary systems. It may force the people to have less faith in the central banks and fiat currencies. Additionally, blockchain gives smart contracts that run by themselves and veil the need for intermediaries while reducing transaction costs and increasing trade efficiency.

Economic Security and Policy:

Both AI and the blockchain interact with national security policies and economic operations. Countries are now realizing the crucial role of technological sovereignty for which they are pouring strategic investments in developing their technologies and reducing their reliance on alien AI and blockchain technologies. This change is also reflected in international talks, where technical skills are used as a main negotiation tool and become the key element of trade agreements and economic partnerships.

Global Shifts in Economic Power:

The use of these technologies is not the same for everyone, thus leading to a change in the economic power holders. Nations that are fast to adopt AI and blockchain into their economic system are gaining an advantage over others, which might gradually change the world economy map. Emerging states, specifically, can benefit from this leapfrogging by encompassing these technologies in their industrialization, where they restructure their positions in the global economy and challenge status quo developed states.

Conclusion

Technology has increasingly been seen as a mighty force that is changing the web of global interactions, redefining the dynamics of diplomacy, security and economic development. The birth of digital diplomacy and the rise of cybersecurity measures demonstrate that nations are increasingly using technology to strengthen international relations while, in turn, becoming vulnerable to cyber threats that can disrupt those partnerships. AI and blockchain-related developments in the economy are the engines of global trade and business transformation, which creates new feasibilities and at the same time puts a deal of responsibility on the countries as well as risks related to technological dependence and inequalities. The advancement of technology is fostering a new possibility of addressing global issues, from environmental to social issues. While it is an enabler, it should also be an incentive to re-establish international cooperation and to stay ethical in governing the world so that technology does not become a bridge but a barrier in international relations.

Podcast | https://youtu.be/W4AOEM09Ksw

Scheduled for 9Pm tonight

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4AOEM09Ksw[/embedyt]

Press Release: Seminar on the Impact of Fake News Hosted by Pakistan House at Bahria University Islamabad

Islamabad, December 7, 2023 , An enlightening seminar on “Fake News: Negative Influences of Social and Digital Media on Human Behaviour,” was put together by Pakistan House and Bahria University Islamabad, experts from different fields talked about how fake news is becoming a bigger problem in the digital age. The speakers gave thought-provoking talks at the event. Each one brought a different view to the important topic of fake news and how it affects society.

Dr. Adam, who is the Principal Dean of the Humanities and Social Sciences Department, started the conversation by talking about how false information has been spread in the past. He said that fake news has always been a problem, but it has changed with the times to become even more dangerous in the digital age. After him, the well-known psychologist Ms. Semra Salik, discussed the psychological impact of fake news on individuals. She explained how false information could lead to fear, anxiety, and even detrimental actions among the public, stressing the need for awareness and education to combat these effects.

The talk by Muhammad Athar Javed, Director General of Pakistan House, was one of the most important parts of the seminar. Mr. Javed stressed that fake news is not a new thing; it has been a part of human history for hundreds of years. He used examples from different times, like the Roman Empire’s use of false information campaigns, to show how fake news has been used to control and influence people. Mr. Javed strongly argued that Pakistan, like many other countries, has to deal with a constant stream of false information that often taints the country’s image in other countries. He said that Pakistan is often shown in a bad light in foreign media, especially by some Indian outlets. This made it clear that there is a need of a strong system to counter these lies. Mr. Javed wanted a comprehensive plan to fight fake news that included teaching people how to use the media better, enforcing journalistic ethics, and encouraging countries to work together to stop cross-border misinformation.

Along with these ideas, Dr. Djezair Ziberi, a German expert on fake news, Dr. Mohsin Hassan Khan, Senior Assistant Professor at the Media Studies Department, and Dr. Saima Kulsum, Principal of Psychology, talked about the effects of fake news on a society as a whole. They talked about how constant exposure to false information leads to broken patterns of behavior, which results in lack of trust in institutions and the media.

The seminar, which was praised for being in-depth and useful, showed that Pakistan House is dedicated to tackling modern societal problems. Today, false information can spread very quickly. Projects like these are very important for giving people the tools and information required to differentiate between truth and falsehood, which will ultimately make society stronger.

From left to right, Ms. Semra Salik, Dr. Saima Kulsoom, Muhammad Athar Javed, Dr. Adam Saud

Ms. Semra Salik receiving the token of appreciation on behalf of Pakistan House

Muhammad Athar Javed receiving the token of appreciation from Dr. Adam Saud

Moderator Zarka Khan, Research Associate at Pakistan House commencing the session open.

FAISALABAD. Young but dynamic bureaucrats must make policy decisions with open heart and mind without any influence of the past and obsolete and redundant strategies, said Dr. Khurram Tariq, President Faisalabad Chamber of Commerce & Industry (FCCI). Addressing the participants of the 37thMid-Career course of the National Institute of Management (NIM) Lahore, he said that evolution has made it compulsory to synchronize new ideas and out of box solutions with futuristic vision to facilitate the public at large. He said that the ground realities are changing at a much faster pace and hence under training young officers must start budgeting from zero without any consideration of prevailing perceptions and notions. He said that what happened last year would become irrelevant and hence we must exploit our own inherent capabilities to make appropriate decisions regarding policy making. About CSR, he said that we are not competing with any other chamber but we have our own priorities to serve the deprived segments of the society.

He said that FCCI has taken the responsibility to provide missing facilities in labour welfare schools in addition to their up gradation. He said that currently three different ministries are involved in labour related issues. “Sindh has brought all these facilities under one ministry”, he said and added that we must replicate this model in Punjab to avoid duplication and get better results. He said that we are patronizing “Agosh” (Orphanage) at the national level. He said that the drop out of students after matric is very alarming and we have suggested introducing technical and IT skills in the syllabus of matriculation so that the dropped-out students could start their own businesses. He said that Faisalabad is the only city where children’s dialysis has been started. Similarly, mentally challenged children are also being patronized to become a productive member of the civil society. Dr. Khurram Tariq said that he had announced plans to transform Faisalabad into Cyberabad and in this connection a slogan of “Tech & Style” was given to provide a conducive climate for the promotion of IT. He said that Faisalabad is the second largest educational city after Lahore and we invited the Vice chancellors to educate and train the human resource with a futuristic vision. He lamented that they had no “skill mapping” and the courses currently introduced in different universities would become irrelevant as the students would complete their degree program. Hence, we must adopt a futuristic vision to train our precious asset of human resource.

Dr. Khurram Tariq said that he has plans to transform Faisalabad into a city of “Brotherhood (Sher-e-Akhwa). Under this strategy the haves would extend interest free loans to have-nots enabling them to start respectable businesses and earn their own livelihood. He said that it would be a city focused program. About the problems of FCCI, he said that Karachi and Lahore are included in different national level committees as they are seated in provincial headquarters. On the contrary Faisalabad has been included in these committees purely due to its competence and merit. “We are now representing the business community of Faisalabad in standing committees of NA & Senate”, he said and added that for the first time President FCCI has been picked as chairman of the anomaly committee to redress the budget related grievances. Responding to a question about FIEDMC, he said that it is a 15 years old project but only 10% colonization and 20% development works have been completed so far. He said that it is a clear and typical example of our bureaucratic attitude. He said that being a board member, he had proposed projects of Rs.87bn along with its recovery schedule but one fine morning the board was dissolved and all the proposed projects were abandoned. About differences between chambers and associations, Dr. Khurram Tariq clarified that chambers have territorial jurisdiction representing all sectors of the economy. “On the other side the associations are sector specific trade organizations fighting for their sector specific problems”, he said and added that in addition to chambers, we also have women and small chambers which represent women entrepreneurs and traders & cottage industry respectively. About the revival of the textile sector, President FCCI said that the government should not create hurdles and recover the actual cost of the electricity. “We are not demanding any subsidy”, he said and added that it would be unjustified to charge us the power pilferage of other Discos.

He said that the recovery rate of FESCO is 99.2% but we are subjected to unfair uniform tariffs on the pretext of a political economy. Giving a brief introduction of FCCI, he said that this city was established by colonial rulers in 1898 to strengthen its grip on this area and develop it as a Mandi Town to cater to the food requirements of the British army. He said that the city was designed on the pattern of “Union Jack” which has now become an important industrial and business hub of the country. He said that Faisalabad is located in the heart of Pakistan which is linked with the reliable road and rail network. “Two state-of-the-art motorways pass from its east and west linking it with north and south”, he said and added that it could become a potential hub of logistics as distribution from this city up to Sukkur is possible in just only a few hours. He further said that FCCI has state of the art industrial estates sprawling over 10,000 acres. He said that the textile sector made tremendous progress as raw material was available in the form of cotton in abundance. He termed it as one of the largest organic cities of Pakistan as it made unprecedented growth in the absence of a garrison. He said that the total population of district Faisalabad is 9 million including five million urban inhabitants. About FCCI, he said that it is the third premier and most effective chamber of the country. “It has 8300 members hailing from more than 118 sectors and subsectors of the economy”, he said and added that sector specific standing committees are constituted to identify and redress their problems. About the advocacy of the business community, he said that we are not only highlighting the problems confronted by our members but also bridging the gap between the government and businesses. He said that core responsibilities of the FCCI is to resolve problems and issue visa recommendation letters with due diligence. He said that FCCI also presented pre-budget proposals with a focused approach to enhance tax revenue without creating harassment among the business community. Senior Vice President Dr. Sajjad Arshad also responded to the questions and queries of the delegates and said that our FCCI R&D sector could not give tangible results like other departments of the government. Muhammad Azhar Director General Pakistan House also addressed the meeting while Dr. Sajjad Arshad presented FCCI memento to Mr. Muhammad Farooq, Directing Staff NIM Lahore. Earlier the participants also introduced themselves.

His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, praised the solid ties between the Kingdom of Bahrain and Pakistan, highlighting the strength of bilateral cooperation in various sectors, including military and defence.
This came as HM the King received General Ehsan ul Hag, former Chairman of Pakistan’s Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. The National Guard President, General His Highness Shaikh Mohammed bin Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa, was present

His Majesty welcomed General Ehsan and conferred the Order of Bahrain medal on him in recognition of his efforts in promoting military and defence cooperation with Bahrain.
General Ehsan expressed his thanks and appreciation to HIV1 King Hamad, commending his significant role in developing Bahrain-Pakistani relations.

By Shaista Riaz, Research Associate at Pakistan House

There are major decisions that need to be made especially when we are witnessing a massive humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. The Afghani citizens and world leaders share one common dilemma, will the Taliban go back to its old ways or is it safe to trust the Taliban? Either way, the main goal should be to avert the current humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and gradually build a peaceful bridge between the Taliban and the rest of the world. This article aims to present an analysis of the current diplomatic setting affecting Afghanistan and provide brief recommendations.

Afghanistan in the last two decades built itself on an American model with no efforts to sustain it after the US left. According to more than 2000 pages of documents obtained by the Washington post, military commanders, diplomats, and aid workers revealed privately and in blunt terms, the US presence in Afghanistan to be an unclear mission, a failed strategy, and an effort to sway public opinion. For example, the Afghan government relied on foreign grants that financed around 75 percent of the public spending. This means that under the Taliban control that money will presumably dry up and the economy is poised to collapse. But it is not just about the foreign grants, the economy is danger from a major brain drain. Since the doctors, lawyers, and other skilled workers are fleeing the country, leaving Afghanistan with limited gains achieved in the past two decades. This is because the gains made under the US presence were not secured and the Afghan citizens are suddenly presented with a dilemma.
So, after twenty years of war in Afghanistan, many Afghans are left traumatized or have been killed by the Taliban, all while the overall sentiment is of deep betrayal. This sense of betrayal has emerged from the un-sustained efforts made by the US administration and by the US servicemen who executed those efforts, who are left questioning what it was all for. Hence, the US does have a clear obligation to take in the Afghan citizens who do not feel safe and grant them humanitarian parole.

Besides, China and Pakistan can play a major role by helping Afghanistan in its humanitarian crisis. Which could lead to stronger ties with the Afghan government. As Beijing is expected to recognise the Taliban regime, it may be futile to believe that the Central Asian states will not eventually recognize the Afghan government. One of the reasons for this possibility is because the Central Asian states have been an active part of China’s Belt and Road initiative. Although the debt burden is increasing in Central Asia, the countries have become dependent on the vested interests of Russia and China. Regardless of the prospect, Beijing has created an economic dependency of Central Asian states on China. This raises a question as to what extent would the economic dependency of Central Asian states can affect their diplomatic decisions? The general idea does dictate that the economic leverage can dictate the political decisions of a country.

Since the discovery of valuable minerals in Afghanistan, the bordering countries can envision a greater outcome of BRI’s presence in Asia. Russia has maintained security presence in Central Asia. However, Russian officials are now downplaying the Taliban’s threats, this could be because a Taliban government would be simpler to work with than the UN-backed government that has now departed. There is no doubt that the Taliban will be a difficult partner for China. Significant uncertainty surrounds the Taliban leadership’s idea of Islamic beliefs, as well as how this may affect the group’s foreign policy, particularly toward its Central Asian neighbours.

Another dimension focuses on the trade relations of Afghanistan that could stabilise the country to some extent and serve as a bridge between Afghanistan and the rest of the world. This can be seen with regards to trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan that might result in revenue benefits on both sides. After prolonged uncertainty in Kabul, exporters from Pakistan have resumed supplying goods to Afghanistan. In particular, the rise in fruit export from Afghanistan has been noticeable. Hundreds of trucks lined the Khyber Pass, the key road that connects Pakistan and Afghanistan across the Torkham border. They are loaded with food and are ready to cross the border into Afghanistan’s eastern Jalalabad. Trucks usually carry cement, sugar, flour, cooking oil, salt, bananas, pomegranates and other food items to Afghanistan. Moreover, Pakistan’s Finance and Revenue Minister, Shaukat Tarin, told the Senate Standing Committee on Finance that trade with Afghanistan would now be in rupees in order for the government to save its dollar revenues. Thus, recognising the need for bilateral trade with Afghanistan would not only benefit Afghanistan’s stability but also allow countries to construct sustainable markets with the new Taliban regime.

The least we could do is help alleviate the humanitarian crisis which is only achievable once the countries recognise their priorities, that is to support the people of Afghanistan. The Taliban regime also needs to understand that its actions in Afghanistan will be the determining factor for achieving the trust of its Afghan citizens and of the world leaders. One of the ways to achieve stability in Afghanistan is through establishing bilateral trade and allowing the market forces to engage Afghanis in economic participation. Moreover, in order to settle the fear of Afghan citizens, the US, Pakistan, and China can encourage soft power diplomacy towards the Taliban for long-term gains from economic and security aspects. As for Central Asian states, it is advisable for them to work alongside the Taliban to ensure the progress of BRI investments in their countries.

By: Saddam Tahir

Climate change is not only an environmental challenge; rather it has evolved into a security and developmental challenge over the years for countries across the globe. With changing climate scenarios, Pakistan’s development model needs to go through a paradigm shift, creating a second climate science arm. All economic planning and investments, out of necessity, need to be an exercise in planning and investment of climate adaptation, duly informed by institutions generating climate knowledge and providing climate services. Climate services can help the country pursue three tracks:

• Climate adaptation
• Disaster-risk reduction
• Sustainable development

In the annual report for 2020, Global Climate Risk Index has placed Pakistan in the fifth position on the list of countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. According to the report from 1999 to 2018, Pakistan has experienced 152 extreme weather hazards, faced economic loss worth $3.8 billion, and 9,989 people have died. Based on the statistics recorded by the think tank, the report concluded that Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change is intensifying. The report points out that Pakistan is “recurrently affected by catastrophes and continuously rank among the most affected countries both in the long-term index and in the index for the respective year”. Due to the geographical location, Pakistan has become most vulnerable to climate change and hence placed on the long-term index of the report. One of the co-authors of the report David Eckstein registers in the report that “the entire region where Pakistan is located is prone to extreme weather events, in particular, heavy rainfalls e.g. during monsoon season, and floodings as a result.”

This year’s report is particularly relevant for Pakistan as climate change is fast “increasing variability in the water cycle, inducing a greater number of extreme weather events, reducing the predictability of water availability, and adversely affecting water quality”. Three water-related issues are central to climate adaptation in Pakistan:

1. a) Water stress, reflected in increasing uncertainty and scarcity.
2. b) Hazards and disasters reflected in floods, droughts, storms surges, and glacier lake outbursts.
3. c) Water quality is reflected in the deteriorating quality of ground and surface water used for drinking, irrigation, and industry.

As the early warning systems continue to be underdeveloped and underutilized, the national meteorological and hydrological services remain weak. National public institutions mandated to provide hydrological information, therefore, lack the necessary capacities needed to provide climate services for water. The results are perilous: human, social, and economic losses are continuously soaring as floods have globally increased by 134 percent and droughts by 20pc in the last two decades. This gives Pakistan all the more reason to augment climate services.

Despite international support and growing climate vulnerabilities, Pakistan has not developed its National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS). The presence of an NFCS will provide an institutional mechanism to coordinate, facilitate and enhance collaboration among national institutions to improve, jointly produce, deliver and use science-based climate projections and services. Some regional countries like China and India who developed robust national frameworks have successfully accessed global science and technology, as the GFCS seeks to build on continued improvements in climate forecasting to increase access to the best climate data. Planners, investors, and vulnerable communities have the right to benefit from easy-to-use information so that they can plan and cope with projected trends and scenarios.

Since Pakistan’s datasets on temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, snowfall in glacial areas, ocean conditions, and winds are absent or inaccessible, policymakers are not always informed about long-term historical averages of these parameters or their risks. Development planners end up shooting in the dark by taking decisions without knowing long-term projections and trends. However, Pakistan’s leadership remains fully committed to addressing the concerns and threats of climate change. As multiple projects of reforestation took place in the last few years to tackle natural disasters.