Climate change is not only an environmental challenge, rather it has evolved into a security and developmental challenge over the years for countries across the globe. In the annual report for 2020, Global Climate Risk Index has placed Pakistan in the fifth position on the list of countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. According to the report from 1999 to 2018, Pakistan has experienced 152 extreme weather hazards, faced economic loss worth $3.8 billion, and 9,989 people have died. Based on the statistics recorded by the think tank, the report concluded that Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change is intensifying. The report points out that Pakistan is “recurrently affected by catastrophes [and] continuously rank among the most affected countries both in the long-term index and in the index for the respective year”. Due to the geographical location, Pakistan has become most vulnerable to climate change and hence placed on the long-term index of the report. One of the co-authors of the report David Eckstein registers in the report that “the entire region where Pakistan is located is prone to extreme weather events, in particular, heavy rainfalls e.g. during monsoon season and floodings as a result.

Regardless of the vulnerable status of Pakistan, the Biden administration did not invite leadership from Islamabad to participate in the climate change summit. Washington invited leaders from Russia, France, India, Indonesia, Germany, China, Italy, Bangladesh Kenya, Mexico, Denmark, Colombia, Congo, Chile, Jamaica, Argentina, Australia, Israel, Canada, Japan, Bhutan, and other countries to participate in the virtual climate change summit. Climate change activists and experts from Pakistan were surprised and annoyed on exclusion from the climate change conference, particularly when the country is not only the most affected one from the ever-intensifying repercussions posed by climate change but also when the key focus area of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government has been to combat this challenge. Prime Minister Imran Khan initiated the “Billion Tree Tsunami,” project as a step towards environmental protection.

According to Michael Kugelman, the U.S. based South Asian affairs expert explained the three conditions for being invited to the summit as “(1) close partner of the US or (2) a major polluter or (3) highly vulnerable to climate change or (4) some combo of 1,2,3. Pakistan certainly qualifies for (3). The second-largest emitter of carbon dioxide U.S. during the tenure of Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement but Biden kept his election campaign promise and rejoined the agreement as soon as he entered the White House. Prime Minister Imran Khan in a tweet expressed that they “puzzled at the cacophony over Pak not being invited to a climate change conf! My govt’s environment policies are driven solely by our commitment to our future generations of a clean & green Pakistan to mitigate the impact of climate change.” However, countries from the same region as Pakistan such as Bangladesh, Russia, and India have been invited to the summit.

Pakistan’s leadership remains fully committed to addressing the concerns and threats of climate change. The initiatives taken to counter the grave consequences have been accepted and appreciated around the world by organizations such as WWF, World Economic Forum, and many other countries. The present government allocated Rs10 billion for facilitating the climate change programs that include sponsoring nature-based solutions, 10 billion tree projects, and cleaning of rivers. The exclusion of Pakistan from the virtual summit hardly makes sense and has been a source of constant debate as most other Asian countries have been invited. According to a survey held in 2019, 21 out of 30 most polluted cities in the world were in India. Air pollution is so grim in India that it has taken the lives of nearly 2 million people. An analysis published in Nature Climate Change Indias percentage of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose slower in 2016-19 than in 2011-15 but was much above the world average of 0.7%. Union of Concerned Scientists published a report of 20 countries that emitted the most carbon dioxide in 2018, and India was placed third on the list. The irony is despite these reasons and Indias poor performance to meet the terms of the Paris Climate Agreement, the country was invited to the climate change summit.

Washington invited leaders of the Major Economic Forum on Energy and Climate that include 17 countries responsible for 80% of global emissions and GDP. The invitation was also given to the heads of countries that are extremely vulnerable to the aggravating status of climate change and simultaneously their governments are demonstrating strong initiatives to combat climate change. If analyzed from these criteria it can be concluded that Pakistan should have been invited to the summit but was deliberately ignored for different reasons. Kamran Yousaf, a senior Pakistani journalist stated that the elimination of Pakistan from attending the summit was not surprising considering the statements of the former US Ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, who remarked that “Pakistan has lost a great deal of importance in the minds of the leadership in Washington.” Many analysts perceived that this was a deliberate humiliation of Pakistan by the new administration in the U.S. and as a move to pressurize Pakistan to cooperate more with Washington in the Afghan Peace Process. This step taken by the leadership in the White House is also a manifestation of they view Pakistan and how it will frame future relations with the country, once the most important strategically. The surprising development has been deciphered by many other analysts also as a move to sideline Pakistan, especially during the time when new alliances in the region are forming that can challenge the superpower status of the United States.

Introduction

For many decades, Arab and Muslim states have remained hostile towards Israel and supported the Palestinian cause. The 21^st century has seen many developments that Israel has established with the world, especially the Arab countries. The Middle East has tried to modernise with time, including its foreign policy that has sparked debate on sensitive issues such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the new peace deal. While Israel’s peace deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain provides opportunities for trade, cybersecurity cooperation and lessens Israel’s isolation, it questions the chances of Palestinian independence.

The new peace-deal

Many experts and authors have tried to assess the significance of the peace deal in regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Different narratives emerge from the literature and media as the challenge to resolve the conflict increases. The ancient normative approach that has been applied to this issue was to isolate Israel, by countries closing their borders and restricting any economic exchange. This has resulted in assuring Palestinians that they have support from around the world. The emerging consensus among some scholars is that if Arab/Muslim countries establish peace with Israel, a better policy solution can be formed to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. However, the question is to what extent can the Muslim countries benefit from Israel’s growing economy and innovation by establishing trade relations?

As experts and authors continue to reflect on the advantages of the peace deal, it is important to reflect on the intention of the countries recognizing Israel. The true nature of the peace deal seems to be based off on economic and trade relations, rather than to encourage a two-state solution regarding Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The initial statement issued by the UAE for the peace deal was to obstruct Israel’s plan of annexing the West Bank. However, as proclaimed by the Israeli officials, the UAE statement is invalid.  The DAWN news published the reality of the “peace treaty” illusions developed by the UAE, that may cost the Palestinians their land and their rights. As per Turkey and Iran, the anti-Israel states, claim that the former US President Trump influenced the motive of establishing the peace deal, in order to promote US’ Gulf state allies’ bilateral relations. So, when the idea of reforming the methods to resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict is concerned, the real intentions of the states must be acknowledged. This is because the ideology of a state has a great impact on its politics. If a capitalist country decides to recognise Israel to better trade relations, then the threat to Palestinians is significant. The new approach towards Israel may still put the Arab/Muslim countries in a difficult situation.

Cybersecurity perspective

The cyber security cooperation between Israel and the UAE has been established in the recent years. According to Al Jazeera, the UAE has poured hundreds of millions of dollars to purchase the Pegasus spyware from Israel based on the conditions set by Israeli Intelligence service. A Palestinian analyst, Issa uncovers that “the Palestinians are at the weakest point ever in history”.

The NSO group is an Israeli company that sells the product called Pegasus, which is a spyware for mobiles. The company was founded in 2010 and has over 500 cyber security experts. Pegasus is the company’s essential product, used for offensive hacking. According to Cooper Quintin, a cyber security specialist, Israel is one of the most sophisticated cyber actors in the world. This is because the Israeli forces are training its military officials to use such offensive hacking in their Defence department. The NSO company claimed that it was launched to detect and prevent terrorism but the people it has targeted is questionable, as human right activists, politicians, and the elites are usually the ones targeted. So, the question arises, who are the NSO clients? Although the company is supposed to work for the government and is legally advised to not sell its services, it extends it services to other countries. The spyware service has been sold to Mexico, Saudi Arabia, UAE and even Colombia.

A possible analysis of UAE-Israel cybersecurity cooperation clearly indicates Israel’s ability to exploit confidential information of countries top officials with an advanced spyware in use. Israel can easily attain a position where rather than asking the US, it can turn to Saudi Arabia or UAE to make Palestinians accept a deal favourable for Israelis.

Conclusion

To witness Israel’s strength in cybersecurity and innovation, an allied sentiment of the Muslim countries on Israel-Palestinian conflict may be difficult to achieve. To approach Israel with a proposal for Israel-Palestinian conflict is risky business, as Israel has better and advance technology that can cause serious damage politically and economically to other countries. Considering the imbalance of power between majority of the Muslim countries and Israel, a safe approach would be to get Israel to recognise its boundaries with Palestine’s agreement before more countries open its borders to Israel with the intention of trade.

U.S.-Russia: Blame Game

U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia for the poisoning of the opposition leader Alexey Navalny. Russia has claimed that the imposed sanctions are “hostile anti-Russian lunge”. Earlier, U.S. blamed Russia meddle in the presidential elections to ward former president Donald Trump.

The assessment was made in a 15-page report into election interference published by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Russia labeled the claims as “baseless”. U.S. intelligence report also stated that some of Trump’s top allies were involved in being a helping hand to Moscow to amplify the prerogatives against Biden. The report said Moscow sought to “push influence narratives” that included misleading or unsubstantiated claims against Biden “to US media organizations, US officials, and prominent US individuals, including some close to former President Trump and his administration.” It was said that Putin was “probably” fixed the campaign to boost Trump and emasculate Biden. U.S. officials claimed that they also noticed efforts made by Cuba, Venezuela and the Lebanese group Hezbollah to sway the election. The U.S. officials further added that “in general, we assess that they were smaller in scale than those conducted by Russia and Iran”. US intelligence agencies and former Special Counsel Robert Mueller formerly established the claim that “Russia also interfered in the 2016 US election to boost Trump’s candidacy with a campaign of propaganda aimed at harming his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton”. Biden recently made a statement that Putin will pay for what he tried to do with U.S. elections if the claims made in U.S. intelligence report confirmed. While giving and interview to George Stephanopoulos, Biden said, “He will pay a price. We had a long talk, he and I, when we – I know him relatively well. I know you and you know me. If I establish this occurred, then be prepared”.

The U.S. has imposed sanctions against four Russian senior official because it has made serious interventions in U.S. national affairs. The U.S. commerce department added that “it was also tightening sanctions on some exports to Russia in response to the March 2018 poisoning of former Russian military intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England with a military-grade nerve agent”. In an answer to the claims and sanctions made, the Kremlin extended their message to U.S. that the intelligence report has absolutely no foundation. No evidence has been provided to back those allegations. The Kremlin also warned the U.S. that any additional sanctions will be detrimental to the U.S. – Russia ties.

North Korea Disregards US Talks for Denuclearization

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicated that North Korea might be engaged in nuclear fuel reprocessing which raised concerns in Pentagon.

The Head of Intelligence of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Rear Admiral Michael Studeman, said that the nuclear activities of North Korea can be a way for the country to get attention of the new Biden Administration and use it as a means to bargain on sanctions relief. In a virtual conference about technology and security Studeman told the participants that, “We have our eye on this. And it is deeply concerning where North Korea wants to go.” The Director General of IAEA Rafael Mariano Grossi commented that North Korea has been active at Yongbyong and Kangson nuclear facilities. He indicated about operationalization of a steam plant which serves as a radiochemical laboratory. Previously North Korea used its Yongbyong radiochemical laboratory to reprocess plutonium from a reactor to develop a nuclear bomb. After the statements made by Grossi, the American Head of Intelligence Studeman said “If that is true, then that could put us into a different level of tension with Korea.”

The Biden Administration is currently reviewing the US-North Korea policy laid down by the former President Trump. All measures previously taken by former President Trump were futile in persuading Pyongyang to give up their nuclear weapons. Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State said that an approach to North Korea could involve either more sanctions or some unspecified diplomatic incentives. He further added that the nuclear program is “a threat to the region and to the world.” Blinken emphasized on multilateral engagement with South Korea, Japan and other regional and international allies to achieve denuclearization of North Korea. On the other hand, North Korean diplomat labelled US attempts to initiate contact as “cheap trick” and such calls would not be responded unless American administration did not drop its hostile policies. This statement by Choe Son Hui, the vice minister of North Korea Foreign Affairs was the first formal rejection of tentative measure taken by the US administration. According to Choe this is a cheap trick of US to gain some time and influence public opinion. In a statement given to news agency, he elaborated, “What has been heard from the U.S. since the emergence of the new regime is only lunatic theory of ‘threat from North Korea’ and groundless rhetoric about ‘complete denuclearization.”

The stance of North Korean administration is that no dialogue with US will be possible until they do not roll back their hostile tactics, and any attempts from US in future will be ignored/ U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits to South Korea alongside Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are expected to engage with Chinese officials to discuss standoff with North Korea. The peace talks with North Korea, especially to persuade it to give up nuclear arms have been stalled since 2019. Blinken has made it very clear that pressure and diplomatic options are both available to North Korea, and what approach US would adopt will depend on the policy review. Analysts have been debating about the possibility that if the United States and its allies should settle for a deal which would freeze North Korea’s nuclear activities in return for easing up sanctions to thwart its arsenal from mounting.

Israel had its fourth legislative election in a two-year period to establish a single dominating party rather than a coalition. Despite staying short of a clear parliamentary majority, Netanyahu’s Likud party has remained popular. The recent election results on 23rd March 2021 signified the possibility of another election in the summer to end the political deadlock. While Netanyahu remains popular, protests have erupted in Israel against Netanyahu’s policies and leadership. Critics have also accused Netanyahu of seeking new elections solely for the purpose of gaining enough support in parliament to pass legislation to end the legal proceedings against him. Netanyahu has refuted the charge, as well as any personal involvement in any potential criminal immunity moves.

The candidates who ran in the elections are as follows.

Benjamin Netanyahu – Likud party leader and runs his campaign on hopes to vaccinate the population and normalise ties with some Arab countries. But he is the first sitting prime minister to be indicted and is facing three corruption trials, earning him the title of “Crime Minister”. In his campaign, he has used his vaccination success and is offering one state solution and peace with the Arabs. Then is Naftali Bennet who belongs to the right-wing Yemina party and has criticised Netanyahu’s approach towards the pandemic but is likely to join Netanyahu’s coalition. Another right-wing candidate is Gideon Saar, the leader of New Hope party which supports settlement construction in the occupied west bank and opposes the Iran Nuclear deal. His campaign agenda is similar to Netanyahu’s. Then there is the TV host turn politician, Yair Lapid, the leader of opposition Yesh Atid party. He is considered the main challenger candidate to Netanyahu, even though he has served as a coalition partner in Netanyahu led government in 2013.

Exit polls showed the country remained divided, according to Mr Yohanan Plesner, President of the Israel Democracy Institute, a non-partisan think tank, and a fifth national election remained a viable choice. “At the same time, if Bennett joins his alliance, Netanyahu would be closer than ever to forming a narrow government comprised of the most radical elements of Israeli society,” Mr Plesner said.

On Twitter, Netanyahu remained cautious with his words to declare victory, he said, “It is clear that a clear majority of Israeli citizens are right wing”, expressing the country’s ideological preference. This allows for further analysis on why the citizens are maintaining the stable right-wing government in Israel.

Likud is expected to be the largest party with 30 seats, down from its existing 36 seats. Yesh Atid, the centrist opposition party led by Mr. Yair Lapid, came in second place with 18 seats. Mr. Lapid, 57, had hoped that the anti-Netanyahu bloc would be big enough to depose the veteran leader, who has been in power since 2009. Although, the results appeared in favour of Netanyahu, he would have to stitch together an unlikely coalition that might include Yemina party, Jewish ultra-Orthodox, ultra-nationalist and Arab parties to secure another term.

United Arab List (UAL) leader Mansour Abbas has proposed collaborating with Netanyahu to resolve the needs of Israel’s 21 per cent Arab minority – a stance opposed by most Arabs, and which forced Abbas’ faction to break from a coalition of Arab parties ahead of the vote. However, it seems unlikely that Mansour Abbas will be added to the Netanyahu led coalition. Netanyahu may provide Abbas some benefits under Socio-economic development and political representation but not a seat in the government. Although Bennett’s right wing Yemina party is yet to decide if he wants to join Netanyahu’s coalition, there is a good chance that it will. What he has said to the press is that he will do what is good for the state of Israel, which indicates that he will go with Netanyahu and extract a high price from him. Since analysts highlight that Bennett is interested to gain the position of Minister of Justice and to implement changes in the ministry of Justice, it is possible that Netanyahu negotiates a position in the ministry of justice for Bennett. Besides, for helping Netanyahu form a government, he may want a rotating prime ministership as well.

So, what does the new coalition mean for Israel? Since Israel has not had a budget for three years, they need a stable government to revise the 2018 budget. However, the new coalition could be less stable than anticipated, this is because the coalition parties can influence and raise demands from Netanyahu, resulting in a fairly unstable government. Despite Netanyahu being the Prime Minister for the past 2 years, he has not had majority in Knesset supporting his government, resulting in coalitions that have time and gain failed to bring political stability in the country.

Another aspect of Israel’s frequent election is because analysts believe that Netanyahu does not want to loose his power and revisit the corruption charges. He is scheduled to be back in court by the second week of April, possibly as the serving Prime Minister. But since he has not gained enough majority in the Knesset, his influence to revisit the charges may be low. It was anticipated that after winning majority, Netanyahu may replace the court judge who may work in his favour, however, with the new coalition he may feel the threat to be prosecuted on corruption charges.

Israel’s population faces the dilemma to vote for an alternative who is better than Netanyahu, however, the opposition fails to provide such a leader that the population could vote for. It is fair to say that Netanyahu has made great progress to vaccinate the population and end the lockdowns which affected many layers of the society. However, the critical masses of the opposition remined intact and even grew slightly in the past two years. The current polls indicates that Netanyahu has exhausted the electoral pool of which he has been living as Prime Minister.

Deadliest Protests in Myanmar

For over a month now the unarmed civilians have gathered in streets and markets to protest against the illegal grab of power by the new military rulers of Myanmar, who ousted the democratically elected government. The security forces continue the use of lethal force against the demonstrators protesting against the military coup and detention of the political leaders. Protestors in Myanmar are determined to take effective measures for restoring democracy which is an indication of their will to no more live under a dictatorial rule or isolated from rest of the world. The crowds have gathered across the country, sometimes including tens of thousands of protestors demanding the coup to be reversed which ended the decade long transition of the country to democracy.

At least 38 people have been killed as a result of clashes between the security forces and the demonstrators, which marks the highest death rate since the protests began. Despite the crackdown mounted on demonstrations, the number of protestors coming out on streets against the coup remains high. The security forces, including police have been using tear gas, rubber bullets and live rounds to disband the protestors. As a part of crackdown on the protest, the police has arrested hundreds of protestors and journalists. According to some reports nearly 1,500 people have been arrested by the police since the beginning of the protests. Members of media have been arrested on the charges of violating the public law and order. Another incident of police brutality was disclosed when a video shot by security camera showed local police brutally thwacking the crew of an ambulance after they were arrested. Security forces in Myanmar are singling out medical workers and subjecting them to physical abuse because people from medical profession were the ones who launched the movement of civil obedience in the country as a resistance against the junta.

Due to the grave human rights violations, United States, United Kingdom, Canada and European Union are considering to impose sanctions on Myanmar. On such reports, a military representative of Myanmar responded, “We are used to sanctions and we survived.” On being warned about isolation, the same military representative responded, “We have to learn to walk with only few friends.” The White House Press Secretary, Jen Psaki said that “the killings represent an escalation of the ongoing crackdown on pro-Democracy protesters.” He further added that the Biden administration is preparing to impose cost on those who are responsible for the outbreak of violence in Myanmar, which is likely to intensify in the coming days. Ten members of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which include Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam had virtual talks with the representatives of military to discuss the situation and suggested that all parties in Myanmar must refrain from instigating further violence.

The military on the other hand has been justifying its illegal take over with the claims of voter’s fraud in the general elections of November 2020 which resulted in the return of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) to power. The election commission office of Myanmar rejects such claims and has called the elections free and fair. The protestors are calling on the international community for help by imposing sanctions and an arms embargo. Earlier such calls to international community resulted in a brutal crackdown against the Rohingya’s in 2017.

Doha Peace Talks

Zalmay Khalilzad the US special envoy to Afghanistan had a discussion yesterday with senior Afghan official in Kabul over ways to accelerate the peace process discussion took place before heading to Qatar, where negotiations with Taliban representatives are going on. US-brokered peace talks between the Afghan government and the militant group began in September but progress has slowed down and violence has risen, while there is also uncertainty over whether international forces will pull out troops by May as originally planned or it will face further delay.

The U.S State Department said that Khalilzad and his team were visiting Kabul and Qatar. It said the US diplomats would also visit other regional capitals as part of a mission aimed at working towards “a just and durable political settlement and permanent and comprehensive ceasefire”. The U.S had no choice other than political solution, she had tried each and every way to counter militants and unfortunately the U.S had failed to do so.

Khalilzad discussed the peace process with Abdullah Abdullah, the chairman of Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation, and he was also expected to meet other Afghan officials to process the peace talks that is beneficiary not only for the region but also for the U.S and for the better future of Afghanistan. “Development of the peace process, accelerating the process and the assessment of the Doha peace agreement by the US new administration were the main topics of discussion”.

Now everything is in the hands of President Joe Biden’s administration conducting a review of a February 2020 deal struck between the Trump administration and the Taliban to determine whether to stick by a deadline to withdraw the remaining 2,500 US troops from Afghanistan, and end America’s longest war.

US and European officials have said the Taliban have not fulfilled commitments they made in an accord reached with the United States in Doha a year ago, that set up the move towards peace talks involving the Afghan government. The Taliban have largely denied responsibility for a rash of attacks in Afghanistan since beginning talks with the government in September.

But there has been a spike in violence during the past few months including targeted killings of officials, activists and journalists blamed by the Afghan government and the US on the Taliban. Both Taliban and government leaders have said that these talks are a “unique historic opportunity” for Afghans to solve their differences.

Afghanistan: Recent Killings

Afghanistan is witnessing a sharp surge in killings since the peace talks and negotiations have started between Afghan government and Taliban. In 2020, Afghanistan has witnessed about 8,820 causalities in total. Most of the killings were carried out during the last three months of 2020, since the peace talks and negotiations began. As per the UN mission to Afghanistan’s (UNAMA) annual report, the number is 15 % less than the causalities that took place in the 2019.  The head of UNAMA, Deborah Lyons, said that “last year could have been the year of peace in Afghanistan. Instead, thousands of Afghan civilians perished”. She further added that the Taliban and the U.S. must recognize the importance of a ceasefire, as soon as possible, to dodge the distressing and devastating consequences which can lead to a high magnitude of tensions and rigidities.

On March 4^th 2021, the coordinated attacks were carried out against four women as they made their way home from work in Jalalabad. The attacks were carried out separately. Three of the women were shot dead while one got critically injured. Three of the women that were shot dead had recently finished high school and aged between 18 to 20 years. The women worked as dubbing artists at the privately-owned Enikas TV station in Jalalabad. The women were identified as MursalWahidi, Sadia Sadat and Shahnaz. All three women were killed in separate attacks but in one night as they were coming back after finishing their work.MursalWahidi was shot dead at point-blank range and passed away instantly, while the other two women became victims of open-fire. They dubbed popular and often melodramatic dramas from Turkey and India into Afghanistan’s local languages of Dari and Pashtu. It has been reported that in December 2020, another female worker at the Enikas TV station in Jalalabad, Malala Maiwand, was shot dead in similar conditions. This has spread fear among people working for TV channels. Doorandish, a journalist who often covers corruption, violence, and human rights violations, was hit by a roadside bomb attack in May 2020. He survived the attack but lost two of his colleagues. He says that after the attack he is always scared to step out of the house.

Taliban are considered behind the attacks but Islamic State militants have said they shot dead three women who worked for a radio and TV station in eastern Afghanistan. Authorities have claimed that they have arrested the main suspect called Qari Baser for carrying out the shootings, insisting that he is a member of the Taliban, and said they are looking for accomplices. It has not been revealed that how one person carried out two separate shootings in one night at the same time.

Introduction

The new decade has welcomed many possibilities for China, as it emerges as the new superpower. Almost every Asian country is involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), despite India’s protest against it. The geopolitical dynamics between India and China have been rough and uncertain – without guaranteeing a cooperative future. China has promoted “peaceful co-existence” stance with India but its activities in South Asia interprets a growing influence and a threat for India. This paper provides a brief analysis of the reality of Sino-Indian relations by viewing South Asia’s influence.

Sino-Indian rapprochement: Relations with South Asia

China’s engagement with South Asian countries emphasizes bilateral rather than the multilateral dimension of interactions. Moreover, China’s regionalism foreign policy, a soft power approach has uplifted China’s image but has served as a detriment to India. This is because China has stepped in to help South Asian (SA) countries with their need to build infrastructure when India has struggled to provide resources to SA countries. For example, China signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Maldives and also helped the Maldives build an International airport. Nepal has also benefited by signing the BRI plan, as China has allowed Nepal to use its land as a getaway for trade, and has promoted Nepal’s tourism sector. Another significant gain for China in SA was the Hambanthota port in Sri Lanka. The port, built with China’s assistance was eventually leased to China for 99 years because Sri Lanka was unable to pay back the Chinese loans.

India and China’s relation has been affected by their diplomacy in SA, that has impacted the Sino-Indian rapprochement. Chinese foreign policy’s significant aspects are non-interference and its image projection. China’s non-interference policy is appreciated by many countries as they do not have to adhere to rules on climate protection or labour rights. As for its image projection, China’s “Wolf Warrier” diplomacy tries to appeal to its audience and advance its interests abroad. Whereas, PM Modi has taken policy changes, to promote Delhi’s ability to establish regional peace and economic integration. India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy helps India focus on reconnecting with its smaller neighbours. Therefore, regionalism may open opportunities for functional cooperation between the two countries in the region, but their pursuit of regional integration may also destabilise the region. Thus, China’s growing political and economic influence in South Asia is evident and inevitable. Moreover, the two countries have gone to war with each other, first over the Tibet region that China considers its domestic territory and second over the Ladakh border, which is also a cause of conflict and a more recent phenomenon.

Conclusion

It appears that India’s relations with the smaller neighbours have deteriorated and China has exerted its influence in the region which ultimately threatens India. The threat India faces is its lack of influence in the region and an ally of Pakistan becoming a superpower. The relation between the two may be played by China as “cooperative”, but viewing South Asian relations of the two countries, it reflects that mutual trust is lacking. Thus, diplomatic deception is evident between the two countries.

BY SHAISTA RIAZ

Pakistan House organized a one-day International Webinar on 3rd of November 2020 on “Dividends to Pakistan’s Economy from Afghan Peace: Challenges and Opportunities “. H.E. General Ehsan Ul Haq, HI (M) NI (M) (Retd), Chairman Pakistan House graced the occasion as the Chief Guest. Read More…

Myanmar: Military Coup

A protester holds a placard with an image of Myanmar military Commander-in-Chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and Justice For Myanmar as fellow protesters march around Mandalay, Myanmar on Monday, Feb. 8, 2021. A protest against Myanmar’s one-week-old military government swelled rapidly Monday morning as opposition to the coup grew increasingly bold. (AP Photo)

The military in Myanmar toppled the Aung San Suu Kyi’s frail democracy on February 1st, 2021. Myanmar military has arrested many civil leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi, President U Win Myint, along with cabinet ministers, the chief ministers of several regions, opposition politicians, writers and activists under the impression, without any evidence, that the elections won by Aung San Suu Kyi and her party are scam and fraud. Myanmar’s leading Democratic Party, National League for Democracy, won the elections by 83%. Military refused to accept the elections. Aung San Suu Kyi has been Myanmar’s de facto leader since the elections of 2015. The military argued that elections were fraudulent and threatened to take action. Not long after the threat was made, Myanmar’s houses of parliament were surrounded by the military soldiers. Military has also accused Aung San Suu Kyi of violating an obscure import law, many are viewing this accusation as a ploy to keep her incarcerated.

Military had been in power in Myanmar since 1962. In 2011, quasi-democracy began when military implemented parliamentary elections and other reforms. Unfortunately, the recent coup has brought back the full military rule just after nine years of quasi-democracy. The military coup in Myanmar was effectively declared on the military owned Myawaddy TV station. The presenter quoted the constitution of 2008 and described that it allows military to take control and declare national emergency. It was further added that the national emergency will stay in place for one year. Power has been handed over to Commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing. According to reports, two days from February 1st, military took control of the parliament and other State institutions and operations including country’s infrastructure, suspended most television broadcasts and cancelled all domestic and international flights. Telephone and internet access was suspended in major cities. The stock market and commercial banks were closed. The full military takeover has caused protests against the military regime. The protestors include teachers, lawyers, students, bank officers and government workers. It has also been reported that soldiers have used water cannon against the protestors. Strict restrictions have been imposed including curfew and gatherings. Many international States have condemned the military takeover including EU, Australia, UK and the U.S. Whereas, Cambodia, Thailand and the Philippines called it an internal matter. China urged all sides to resolve the differences.

Glacier collapse in India

A piece of Himalayan glacier in the Indian state of Uttarakhand broke off and fell into a river Sunday, causing flood that have killed at least 20 people so far, while nearly 200 remain missing. The wall of water barreled down a valley in the northern state of Uttarakhand on Sunday morning, destroying bridges, roads and two hydroelectric power plants this is not a small incident, it’s more alarming that the glaciers are melting more rapidly as compare to previous years. Environment protectionists are worried and call it a climate change event and the glaciers are melting due to global warming, however they also warned people to get ready for more disasters.

Asia is home to some of the world’s biggest waterways, from the Ganges and the Indus in India to the Yangtze and Mekong originating in China, that snake for thousands of kilometers. They support the livelihoods of vast numbers of farmers and fishermen, and supply drinking water to billions of people, but have come under unprecedented pressure in recent years.

Higher temperatures are causing glaciers that feed the rivers to shrink, threatening water supplies and also increasing the chances of landslides and floods, while critics blame dam building and pollution for damaging fragile ecosystems.

Rivers are really at risk from development projects, dumping of solid waste and liquid waste, sand mining and stone mining,   Himanshu Thakkar, from the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People are very much dependent on these rivers. In regions like the Himalaya, the problem of rising temperatures is three-fold:

• It leads to the melting of mountain glaciers, which can spark floods.
• It also decreases glacial coverage, which leads to a reduction in the long-term availability of water for people, agriculture, and hydropower.
• As glacier cover reduces and the area is replaced by water or land and hence the land Corrosion started.

Glaciers are often referred to as the “water towers” of the world, with half of humanity depending on mountains for their water needs. The Tibetan Plateau alone is the source of 10 of Asia’s biggest rivers and provides water to 1.35 billion people, or 20 per cent of the world’s population.

The incident raises questions about developing a region that is vulnerable to climate change. The IPPC’s Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere warned that glacier retreat could increase the risk of landslides, floods and cascading events in regions where these disasters were previously unheard.

In the Paris Agreement, Member States committed to limit global temperature increases to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Slowing global warming would help save glaciers, but countries must also prepare mountain ecosystems for an unavoidable increase in temperatures. Steps need to be taken otherwise there will be a regret at the end.

Artificial Intelligence vs National Security

Artificial Intelligence, or commonly known as AI, is a briskly emerging field of technology. The rapid growth of AI has substantial implications on national security. The potential international competitors include the USA, China, and Russia. Artificial intelligence is highly used in developing applications to cater to a range of military functions. Artificial intelligence has gained its place in the world of research on the grounds of intelligence collection and analysis, logistics, cyber operations, information operations, command and control, and in a variety of semiautonomous and autonomous vehicles. China is the most leading competitor against the USA in developing AI and aims to capture the worldwide leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.

China is primarily focused on using AI to make fast and well-informed decisions along with developing various autonomous military vehicles. Russia is more invested in using AI in the field of robotics. AI can acquaint the world with various challenges along with many advantages militarily. AI is capable of carrying out and facilitating autonomous military and combat operations which can introduce a unique form of influence, unpredictability, vulnerability, and manipulation. AI is also expected to bring social transformations of an extraordinary scale. AI’s capabilities may affect, directly or indirectly, the preconditions for peace, nature of conflicts, and insecurities that are often perceived by people and States.

Global Climate Change:

In a comprehensive report released by the “National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP)” of the Center for Climate and Security, experts warn of High-to-Catastrophic threats to security from plausible climate change trajectories – the avoidance of which will require “quickly reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions.” A near-term scenario of climate change, in which the world warms 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F over pre-industrial levels by mid-century, would pose ‘High’ to ‘Very High’ security threats. To alleviate the threats posed by global climate change scenarios, a quick reduction of net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions is required. To avoid future disasters and calamities, resilient and climate-proof infrastructure is needed. A warm climate will encourage wildfires and prolonged summers which will have a direct effect on people’s day-to-day life and economic activities. The developed and rapidly emerging countries are likely to suffer less because of their greater coping capacity in comparison to poorer States. The economic activities of poorer States will likely experience setbacks leading to political disruptions.

Indian Homegrown Covid-19 Vaccination Shots:

India gave the nod for emergency use of two vaccines, one developed by Oxford University and UK-based drugmaker AstraZeneca, and another by Indian company Bharat Biotech. It is the world’s largest vaccination campaigns, as part of efforts by the populous nation to bring the Covid-19 pandemic under control starting with two locally-manufactured shots in the 1st phase more than 300 million people will be vaccinated. Doctors, nurses, and old citizens will receive vaccines firstly. Recently on 4th January, Indian authorities sent 16.5 million vaccines to different parts of the country. Over a 35million doses of various Covid-19 vaccines have been administered around the world and the majority of the COVID-19 vaccines have been snapped by the wealthy states so India is totally dependent on its homegrown vaccine. Ministry of Health claims that Vaccine is safe and no-after effects have been recorded, but according to few news channels some people are allergic to the vaccine. Indian doctors are demanding Oxford-AstraZeneca “Covishield” vaccine to be supplied instead of Covaxin. The residents are dependent on Covishield and demanding to complete the Covaxin trail before injecting it. Around 69% of Indians are in no hurry to get vaccinated, they are waiting for the result on those who got the vaccine shots. People are hoping that homegrown vaccine will help to counter COVID-19 and save lives as India has the world’s second-largest known caseload with more than 10.5m coronavirus infections and over 152,000 deaths so far. Covaxin could be the game-changer for India if the results are satisfying.

Artificial Intelligence vs National Security

Artificial Intelligence, or commonly known as AI, is a briskly emerging field of technology. The rapid growth of AI has substantial implications on national security. The potential international competitors include the USA, China, and Russia. Artificial intelligence is highly used in developing applications to cater to a range of military functions. Artificial intelligence has gained its place in the world of research on the grounds of intelligence collection and analysis, logistics, cyber operations, information operations, command and control, and in a variety of semiautonomous and autonomous vehicles. China is the most leading competitor against the USA in developing AI and aims to capture the worldwide leader in artificial intelligence by 2030. China is primarily focused on using AI to make fast and well-informed decisions along with developing various autonomous military vehicles. Russia is more invested in using AI in the field of robotics. AI can acquaint the world with various challenges along with many advantages militarily. AI is capable of carrying out and facilitating autonomous military and combat operations which can introduce a unique form of influence, unpredictability, vulnerability, and manipulation. AI is also expected to bring social transformations of an extraordinary scale. AI’s capabilities may affect, directly or indirectly, the preconditions for peace, nature of conflicts, and insecurities that are often perceived by people and States.

Global Climate Change:

In a comprehensive report released by the “National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP)” of the Center for Climate and Security, experts warn of High-to-Catastrophic threats to security from plausible climate change trajectories – the avoidance of which will require “quickly reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions.” A near-term scenario of climate change, in which the world warms 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F over pre-industrial levels by mid-century, would pose High to Very High-security threats. To alleviate the threats posed by global climate change scenarios, a quick reduction of net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions is required. To avoid future disasters and calamities, resilient and climate-proof infrastructure is needed. A warm climate will encourage wildfires and prolonged summers which will have a direct effect on people’s day-to-day life and economic activities. The developed and rapidly emerging countries are likely to suffer less because of their greater coping capacity in comparison to poorer States. The economic activities of poorer States will likely experience setbacks leading to political disruptions.

Indian Homegrown Covid-19 Vaccination Shots:

India gave the nod for emergency use of two vaccines, one developed by Oxford University and UK-based drugmaker AstraZeneca, and another by Indian company Bharat Biotech. It is the world’s largest vaccination campaign, as part of efforts by the populous nation to bring the Covid-19 pandemic under control starting with two locally manufactured shots in the 1st phase more than 300 million people will be vaccinated. Doctors, nurses, and old citizens will receive vaccines firstly. Recently on 4th January, Indian authorities sent 16.5 million vaccines to different parts of the country. Over a 35million doses of various Covid-19 vaccines have been administered around the world and the majority of the COVID-19 vaccines have been snapped by the wealthy states so India is totally dependent on its homegrown vaccine. Ministry of Health claims that Vaccine is safe and no-after effects have been recorded, but according to few news channels some people are allergic to the vaccine. Indian doctors are demanding Oxford-AstraZeneca “Covishield” vaccine to be supplied instead of Covaxin. The residents are dependent on Covishield and demanding to complete the Covaxin trail before injecting it. Around 69% of Indians are in no hurry to get vaccinated, they are waiting for the result on those who got the vaccine shots. People are hoping that homegrown vaccine will help to counter COVID-19 and save lives as India has the world’s second-largest known caseload with more than 10.5m coronavirus infections and over 152,000 deaths so far. Covaxin could be the game-changer for India if the results are satisfying.