Making Sense of the CPEC Controversy

Rafiullah Kakar

The controversy around the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) seems far from subsiding. In recent developments, political parties from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Balochistan have upped the ante and have accused the ruling party of ignoring the smaller provinces in the multi-billion dollar project. In an attempt to make sense of the concerns advanced by representatives from Balochistan and K-P, I am going to examine the position taken by the federal government in a series of articles.

The CPEC is a multi-route corridor that will be completed in multiple phases over a period of 15 years. As per the decision of the May 28, 2015, APC, the western route of the corridor passing through the relatively lesser-developed provinces of Balochistan and K-P is being built on a priority basis. To judge whether the federal government has actually prioritized the building of the western route or not, let’s develop a simple test and check if its claims about having prioritized this route pass the test. According to the test, the western route shall be considered prioritized if it meets the following conditions:

1) The quality of infrastructure of the western route should be better or at least similar to that of the eastern route. For this to happen, the government must have allocated the required financial resources to the route.

2) Ideally, the western route should be constructed first so that it can become functional before the other two routes. If circumstances are not ideal, as is often the case, then it should become operational at least simultaneously with the other routes. Timing is central to economic planning and development. The question of ‘which-route-to-take-first’ is very important and is likely to play a key role in shaping the subsequent path of development.

3) At least half of the proposed industrial parks and economic zones and other supporting components of the corridor, including energy projects, railway tracks, and gas pipelines should be located along the western route.

Now let’s examine if the western route fulfills the criteria enumerated above.

The western route is a two-lane road whereas the eastern route is a high-speed six-lane modern motorway with controlled-access design. The pavement design of the eastern route is markedly superior to that of the western route. The latter can’t withstand loaded trucks. The superiority of the eastern route is not surprising given the government’s preferential funding for it. The allocation pattern of federal development funding clearly suggests that the eastern route is the government’s priority. In the 2015-16 federal PSDP, the government has allocated only Rs20 billion to the western route while earmarking a handsome Rs110 billion to the eastern alignment. Out of the Rs20 billion, approximately Rs5 billion have been allocated for the Gwadar-Turbat-Hoshab (M8) and Hoshab-Panjgur-Besima (N85) sections, which constitute the common route shared by all three alignments. In strictly technical terms, therefore, the funds earmarked for the western route in the 2015-16 federal PSDP are approximately Rs15 billion, of which not even a penny comes from the approximately $11 billion CPEC loans taken on for infrastructure development. As of December 31, 2015, only Rs1.6 billion of the Rs15 billion have been released.

Coming to the second pillar of the test, the two-lane road along the western alignment is likely to be completed by the end of 2018 whereas the six-lane motorway along the eastern alignment will be completed by the end of 2017. Lastly, the eastern route passes through the relatively developed parts of the country and is in geographical proximity of major urban centres, energy production sites and growth zones. Railway tracks and LNG pipelines will run parallel to it. As far as industrial parks are concerned, let’s hope they will be equally distributed among the three routes.

Given the huge contrast in the infrastructural quality and spatial proximity of the two routes, the eastern route is destined to effectively become the primary route, the government rhetoric about having prioritised the western route notwithstanding. The two-lane western route, if completed by 2018, will remain an auxiliary route at best. The reality is that the government had decided to change the corridor route in late 2013 or early 2014. This is proven by the 2014-15 federal PSDP in which the government had earmarked Rs49 billion for the CPEC, all of which was to be spent on the eastern route. When confronted with mounting political pressure in 2015, the federal government allocated a nominal amount for the western route in the 2015-16 PSDP.

Now let us come to the government’s claims that the revenue generated from the motorway on the eastern route will be used to upgrade the western route to become a four-lane and ultimately a six-lane motorway. Railway tracks will be laid from Gwadar to Peshawar passing through Quetta and DI Khan.

First, there are no credible guarantees that these commitments will be duly honored, especially given the long time horizon — 15 years — it involves. If history is any indication, complacency will creep in and the urgency and motivation, if any, to upgrade the western route will wane once the eastern route becomes functional. The federal government will keep fabricating excuses to delay the up gradation of the western route. Fiscal constraints and political crises of one or the other type will continue giving it plausible cover. Protesting voices from smaller provinces will be coerced into silence by appeals to ‘patriotism’ and ‘India’s malicious designs over the project’.

Secondly, even if the credible commitment problem is somehow resolved, the up-gradation of the western route at a later stage is unlikely to alter the position of the eastern route as the primary route of the corridor. The western route will at best play second fiddle to the eastern one. Once the eastern route with its superior infrastructure and geographical proximity to the developed and prosperous urban centers takes the lead as a result of the initial preferential treatment it has received from the federal government, it is likely to stay ahead of the competing routes because of positive feedbacks and increasing returns to scale. Over time, development choices will be constrained within a progressively narrower range of possibilities that will tend to preserve the status quo. This is known as path-dependence, which among other things, partially explains the persistence of regional disparities. Nevertheless, the concept does not rule out the possibility of breaking out and establishing new paths, especially in the beginning of a process. The CPEC offered the government the formative moment to break out and create new paths of economic development by prioritising its under-developed regions. Unfortunately, the ruling elite have not taken advantage of this opportunity.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 22^nd,  2016.

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Courtesy: The Express Tribune

Kashmir is termed as the ‘jugular vein’ of Pakistan as all major rivers originate from there. The agricultural prosperity and power generation of the country is dependent on the waters of these rivers. It is an unfinished agenda of partition. By 15 August 1947, all the 600 princely states except Junagarh, Hyderabad, and state of Jammu & Kashmir had acceded to either Pakistan or India on the principle underlying the partition of British India, that Muslim majority states to join Pakistan and non-Muslim majority states to join India. According to book of S.M. Bruke, Pakistan’s Foreign Policy (p 17-27) the state of Jammu & Kashmir, popularly known as Kashmir had overall 78% Muslims, but in the valley of Kashmir Muslims were 93%. The ruler was Maharaja Hari Singh a Hindu. He initially wanted Kashmir to become independent but it was not possible as per partition rules. India sent its troops to Kashmir and occupied in October 47. In accordance with partition rules the princely state of Jammu & Kashmir should have been part of Pakistan. The first war between India and Pakistan over Kashmir was fought 1947/48. India approached the United Nations asking to intervene. The United Nations recommended holding a plebiscite to settle the question of whether the state would join India or Pakistan which have not yet taken place. Indian occupied Kashmir (IOK) was given special status within the Indian constitution, which guaranteed that it would have independence over everything except communications, foreign affairs, and defense. This special status (article 370 of Indian constitution) was revoked by the Indian government on 5 August 2019. A meeting of the members of Security council was held in mid-August to discuss the Kashmir issue at the request of Pakistan. After the close door meeting, China’s Ambassador Jun Zhang told reporters that Council members feel that India and Pakistan should both stop from any unilateral action over Kashmir. The fact that Kashmir issue was discussed in the highest diplomatic forum of the world is testimony to Pakistan’s point of view that this is an international dispute. Since then India has imposed locked down in Kashmir and continuously committing atrocities on the residents. Pakistan government is highlighting these aspects at every forum. Pakistani citizens should also expose Indians by whatever means available about the illegal occupation of Kashmir and mayhems being committed on the inhabitants. In short Kashmir is a major dispute which has yet to be resolved between India and Pakistan. It is considered main hindrance for normalization of relations. Border skirmishes take place on the Line of Control(LOC) frequently.

In early January 1965, dispute of Rann of Kutch emerged. According to Abdul Sattar book, Pakistan’s Foreign Policy (p102-105), India contested 3,500 miles area north of 24 degrees parallel. Fighting flared up in April. British government persuaded both sides to agree to cease fire which took place on 1 May. later on the issue was resolved by a Tribunal. Keeping this in view, Pakistan Navy (PN) was ready for any more eventuality. In the next few months PN units remained extra alert and went to sea frequently. Had embarked fuel, ammunition and stores for war. In the meantime, operation Gibraltar was executed by the Army in early August 1965 calling for incursions by Kashmiri volunteers into IOK. It was assumed that large scale Indian offensive is not likely. But India launched an offensive on the international border on 6 Sep with the objective to capture Lahore which was countered effectively. Hence all-out war commenced, India as aggressor. According to Jane’s fighting Ships of 1965-66, PN had a cruiser, a submarine and 7 destroyers (DDs)/ frigates (FFs), whereas India had an Aircraft carrier, two cruisers, and 19 DDs/ FFs. Indian Navy (IN) had considerable numerical superiority. Correct ratio between the two navies cannot be determined because PN did not have Aircraft Carrier, it may be assessed as 1:5. According to the book Story of the Pakistan Navy (p216-20), role assigned to PN was Sea word defense of Pakistan, keep sea lines of communication open, interdiction of shipping, thwart amphibious landing and assist army in the riverine operations in former East Pakistan. India had deployed an Aircraft carrier, 2 cruises and 14 DDs/ FFs on the East coast and 5 DDs/ FFs on their West coast. PN Submarine Ghazi was deployed off Bombay area to sink heavy units of IN that is Aircraft Carrier Vikrant and two heavy cruisers, Delhi and Mysore. She sailed on 2 Sep and was in her patrol area off Bombay on 5 Sep. Vikrant and Delhi were refitting in Bombay. Mysore was operational in Cochin harbor. It was assessed that Mysore will move north towards Bombay but it never left Cochin area. PN received message about starting of hostilities by India at 0630 on 6 Sep. PN units were preparing to leave harbor at 0800 for weekly exercise program and left harbor before 0800 and moved towards their assigned patrol stations. Naval control of shipping organization was activated to effectively control merchant ships. An embargo was declared on all merchant ships carrying war like stores to India. The river routes used by Indian steamers transiting through former E Pak were sealed. Orders were issued to seize all such vessels and their cargo. All these action were taken swiftly in order to inflict severe losses to the enemy in terms of valuable cargo, ships and river craft. In the afternoon of 7 Sep while the Task force comprising cruiser Babur and six destroyers and frigates was on patrol, orders were issued to carry out bombardment of Dwarka from a distance as close as of 5.5 nautical miles. The main objective was to destroy radar station, to draw heavy IN units out of Bombay for Ghazi to attack, lower morale of Indians, and to divert Indian air effort away from northern area close to Karachi. The city of Dwarka was completely blacked out. Bombardment was started about 30 minutes past midnight and completed in five minutes. Each ship fired 50 rounds. The Task Group safely arrived on its patrol station at 0630 on 8 Sep after successfully completing the mission. IN ships did not come out even after bombardment therefore, Ghazi was assigned patrol off the Indian Kutch coast. On 22 Sep she managed to get an IN frigate as its target. She carried out attack with four torpedoes at 7: 11 pm. The commanding officer, commander K R Niazi (retired as CNS) and second in command Lt Commander Ahmad Tasnim (retired as Vice Admiral) got gallantry awards Sitara e Jurrat (SJ). Hardly any movement of IN unit was observed in the North Arabian Sea and in the Bay of Bengal during the entire 16 days war. The PN had achieved Sea Control (establishment of naval superiority in areas where operations were intended to be conducted) of North Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal in the classic sense. However, the government accepted the cease fire on 22 September. The PN task force remained at sea till 27 Sep to meet any contingency. The PN dominated the IN which was about 5 times more in strength by her superior training, planning, foresight, and courageous execution of operations.

*Cdre ( r ) Dr Anjum Sarfraz is former Director National Center for Maritime Policy Research and Senior Research Fellow at Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad

On 14th of March 2019, Pakistan House organized a one-day International Conference in Islamabad on ” Reconciliation and Peace in Afghanistan: Implication for Regional and International Stability

Ms Sana Maqbool, News Anchor at PTV World, was the Master of the Ceremony.

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Nobody will ever deprive the American people of the right to vote except the American people themselves and the only way they could do this is by not voting..

–Franklin D. Roosevelt

The result of the US General Election Campaign 2020 will have an impact all around the world. The race of being next in the White House has already begun in the United States of America. Unlike other countries, in United States there are only two parties that are considered by the voters, Republican a right wing party and the Democratic Party i.e. the party of the leftist and the liberals. Winning the 2018 midterm elections, many Democrats anticipated that they will be successful in unseating Donald Trump in the general elections in 2020. Among the top Democrats running for the election are Joe Biden, Obama’s VP, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg. While there are two main candidates that are representing the Republican Party. Donald Trump has started his campaign for a second term, while he is being challenged by a fellow Republican William Weld.

The numbers of Joe Biden have dropped and now he is being topped by Bernie Sanders. After the win in the New Hampshire, support for Sanders is likely to increase. On the other hand, the numbers of Elizabeth Warren are also on a decline. A controversy surrounded her after her year old tweet about running a DNA test for being Native American was surfaced in media. Accusations on Joe Biden by a former Nevada Lawmaker Lucy Flores have also being weighing him down publically. A response to this accusation was Biden’s statement that he will work for ending violence against women. Biden is relying heaving on the votes of African- American voters in South Carolina.

Michael Bloomberg was accused of paying the audience to cheer for him, despite his uninspiring and spiritless performance during the presidential debate. Bernie Sanders, although a first Jewish presidential nominee is accused of being anti-sematic, less Jewish. This is possibly happening because of the Sander’s conflicts with the American Jewish leadership and Israeli leadership. Bernie Sanders has strict views towards Israel and critiques got this golden opportunity to accuse Sanders after he got into a quarrel with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Sanders refused to attend the committee meeting because he believed that it was a platform where leaders “express bigotry and oppose basic Palestinian rights”. These statements by Sanders came after he won the Nevada caucuses, which make him a clear forerunner in the Democrats presidential race. The meeting of pro-Israel lobby was to be held in the beginning of March. AIPAC viewed these statements as an outrageous attack, especially for the US- Israel relationship. However, the bigger source of conflict other than not attending the meeting came after Sanders debate in December where he argued that Israel should only be given aid if the treat Palestinians better. He further said that America should not only be pro-Israel but also be pro-Palestine. Sanders earlier has called Netanyahu a racist and has been very critical of his policies.

Apart from this earnest controversies have come up against Donald Trump too. The American intelligence is said to warn the US lawmakers of the possible intervention by the Russians in 2020 General Elections to re-elect Donald Trump for the second term. Controversies have always remained a part of the election campaigns in the US, it is not something particular to these elections only. In this fight between Jews and Sanders, Donald Trump played his cards very well. Jews are voters of Democrats mostly. In order to secure Jewish vote bank in his favor, Trump moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem and proposed a peace plan for Middle East. The allies of Trump believe that the statements of Sanders will just make victory easier for them. The 59th US presidential elections are scheduled for 3rd November 2020. The winner will be inaugurated on January 20th 2021. The race of becoming the final presidential nominee will end in July at the Democratic National Convention.

The United States of America and India have come a long way from being crestfallen to being fully cooperative with each other on strategic concerns and matters. While the association between two States became sore amid India’s nuclear ambitions in 1998, Bill Clinton, former president of USA, revitalized the ties in 2000 and since then the strategic and economic ties have only gotten sturdier.  Fast forward to 2019, as per Indian Ministry of External Affairs, India was anticipated to acquire $18 billion worth of arsenal from USA along with bilateral military exercises. USA based Indian diaspora has also been very active in promoting India’s interests and popularity. Indians are also among the richest immigrant communities in the USA. Despite the fact that India is the US’s largest trading partner, they do business of about $142 billion a year. The USA filed a lawsuit in the World Trade Organization against India and called it a source for US’s trade deficit by subsidizing exports.

On February 24^th of 2020, US President Donald Trump addressed the Indian audience in Ahmedabad during visiting India to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While being on stage President Trump proclaimed to be all set to sell arsenal, energy and “best and most feared” military equipment of worth whopping $3 billion to India. While making all the statements that Indian media, political leadership and audience wanted to hear, President Trump made a comment that sent a chill down their spines. President Trump, while standing on Indian stage placed on Indian soil, said that the USA is now enjoying good relations with Pakistan and all the efforts made by Pakistan are paying off well in progressing towards a new beginning, harmony, stability and reduced tensions. President Trump did not just stop there, he went on and said that the Trump administration is working very closely and positively with Pakistan to decrease the risk of militancy along the border.

President Trump’s statements praising Pakistan for its efforts on Indian soil were not well received by Indian media and leadership. As Pakistani media, leadership and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi highlighted that the importance of these statements cannot be denied, Indian media went frenzy and kept bringing up the past references of terror attacks to keep the reputation of Modi government intact. The statements in favor of Pakistan made the Modi government concerned to the level where PM Modi refused to hold an unscripted press conference to avoid any more controversy which might have further killed the euphoria of Indian audience. The reference of having good relations with Pakistan at a public meeting with PM Modi cannot be accidental on part of American president and US’s soft policy towards Pakistan qualifies to be an irritant for India in pursuit of having great strategic partnership with the USA.

Among all the commendations for the Modi government, President Trump was unsuccessful in mentioning his remarks over the protest happening in India over its Citizenship Amendment Act and religious persecution of Muslims minority in India. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s media and political leadership is thrilled to have received an acknowledgment for their efforts, whereas Indian media has tried it best to curb the idea that Pakistan is a partner in bringing and maintaining. President Trump’s acknowledgment of Pakistan’s efforts is not only a manifestation of Pakistan’s successful foreign policy but also have given legitimacy to Pakistan’s and its citizens sacrifices worldwide. The praising statements have given a blow to India’s hoax narrative that Pakistan is the problem, rather Pakistan is a part of solution in peace process which is clearly reflected by Pakistan’s active participation in US-Taliban peace talks.

On December 30^th 2019, first case of Coronavirus was reported in China’s metropolis Wuhan. Since then the pneumonia like virus has spread to over two dozen countries around the world, with almost 40,000 patients being affected worldwide. The death toll continues to increase daily, and as of now more than 900 casualties have been reported globally. The new coronavirus is named as 2-19-nCoV, which has affected mostly the people of Wuhan, capital of Hubei province. With the mushrooming of Coronavirus, the flights to and from China have been cancelled and has drastically affected the Chinese economy. To stop the proliferation of the virus outside China, authorities have restricted the travel to and from China. More than 48 million people in China have been restricted from travelling, as the citizens were ordered to only leave their homes for essential reasons. The reports suggest that coronavirus initially affected those who worked or shopped in the Huanan meat market. The symptoms of the coronavirus include cough, fever and difficulty in breathing and in worst cases in leads to organ failure too. In this case of viral pneumonia antibiotics don’t work. Coronavirus is said to transmit through human to human contact.

The Chinese health crisis has put the entire global economic system to a test. A heavy disruption is expected in the production of goods of bigger international companies, which includes Apple Inc., Tesla and many others. Food chains like McDonalds and Starbucks have closed down their outlets on the request of the government to contain the spread of the disease. Companies operating in China, or those having production facilities located in China are relocating their staff. The coronavirus is not only a challenge to the Chinese citizens or the booming Chinese economy but many has also challenged the government. To overcome such predictions, the Chinese government responded with effective measures for containing the spread of Coronavirus.

Prevention Measures:

• House to house searches for screening of virus by teams of medical workers.
• Immediately placing the infected to the quarantine centers.
• Transportation lockdown: railways, buses etc.
• Travelling restrictions: to and from China.
• Government ensures food and medical supplies to the affected Chinese cities.
• New hospitals are constructed on a war-footing.
• Holidays for schools and businesses are extended after the Chinese Lunar Year celebrations.
• Screening at the airports.
• Temperature detection of passengers and motorists travelling on airport and highway respectively.
• Cleaning and disinfecting railways, buses and subways.
• Chinese government is using the country’s powerful surveillance apparatus to track down the journey of those infected by the coronavirus.
• The Chinese finance ministry has allocated $10.26 billion to fight coronavirus, which aims to ensure that the public can afford diagnosis and treatment.

For containing the new epidemic the Chinese government has beefed up the preventive measures nationwide and has declared first level public health emergency. Huge force of doctors and nurses are sent to Wuhan. The medical and food supplies are also rushed to the city to avoid any delays in the treatment. Despite the outbreak of the deadly virus, Chinese authorities have taken strong measures in this fight and the factories did not halt their production of masks and protective clothing. A strong coordination of civilian and military resources can be witnessed in China. According to the authorities more than half a million of medical staff has joined the fight for preventing the epidemic. A major policy banks in country, China Development Bank has offered a loan of $288 million for preventing and controlling the coronavirus. In Guandong Province, the factories have resumed the production of protective masks after the Festive Holidays.

Although the villages are the weakest link in the chain of prevention and control, but after the spread of coronavirus, the villages in China have taken the toughest and smartest steps to fight the new virus. Regular announcements are made by the village chiefs, alerting people to wear masks, wash their hands regularly and avoid meeting and greeting others on the occasion of Lunar New Year. The people are advised to keep in touch with their relatives through mobile phones, instead of travelling to other cities. All those travelling through public transport are advised to wear masks as a safety measure. The passengers are required to undergo temperature detection points when passing through entry-exit points. Passengers have to fill in the health declaration cards and those with symptoms are provided immediate help. As a public health measure, the motorists and labor force have to undergo temperature detection before they start journey on national highway. The public health authorities have ordered the regular cleaning and disinfecting of the railway stations and subways. The railway authorities have also provided masks, gloves, and protective suits to the railway police as a part of preventive measure.

Apart from these measures, the medical and vaccination centers in the country are taking measures to ensure a successful fight against the coronavirus. Two diagnostic kits have been developed to fight coronavirus by the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Furthermore, the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University has developed an optimized method of testing, which helps the infection to be diagnosed in just two hours. As a result of this, the treatment can start quicker than before and recoveries are faster. The mortality rate by coronavirus is 2% which is far less than that by the SARs, which plagued China almost two decades ago. Chinese doctors have also made progress in vaccine, whereby they have developed two chemical compounds that are effective in the treatment of coronavirus.

The Chinese public has full confidence in the leadership of their country for having the capability and capacity to fight the deadly virus. The Chinese government within 10 days built a new hospital for the treatment of infected patients in Hubei, China’s central province. The authorities spent five hours on designing and planning the new hospital. More than 800 construction equipment was rushed simultaneously for constructing the infrastructure of the hospital.  It was possible with the hard work of thousands of workers and with the joint efforts of Chinese experts, who worked round the clock. The new hospital, Huoshenshan, which means Fire God Mountain brought hope to many patients. Around 14,000 medical staff from the armed forces is working in the hospital treating the patients. The Huoshenshan Hospital has a capacity of 1000 beds for the patients.Many are suspicious about the mysterious spread of coronavirus, and label it as a biological warfare and propaganda against China. The virus has been a blow to the Chinese economy, and in coming days it can weaken China’s negotiating hands in the future trade deals, especially effecting those between Beijing and Washington. Around the world many view the Chinese health crisis due to coronavirus as a commercial-biological-psychological war against China to undermine her growth as a new strong player globally. The spread of Coronavirus has the power to change the rules of the game, where many will benefit while many will be at the losing end. The propaganda is merely creating a panic and fear against China amongst the masses. This is not the first time in history that people are dying from a disease. Ebola, SAR, swine flu and many other such diseases have killed people in the past. Those who suspect Coronavirus as an artificial crisis, implanted deliberately in China, question the coincidence of the disease being originating in Wuhan, which happens to be an industrial city, and eighth richest city in China.

The Chinese authorities have full confidence in successfully battling against the spread of the disease. The world has acknowledged their most rigorous and comprehensive measures. China has the capability to combat the new deadly virus and will be successful in eventually defeating it. Chinese authorities announced that a total of 3,281 patients were discharged from the hospital who recovered completely after being infected from the coronavirus. The rapid response of China serves as a model for the countries for tackling the future outbreaks. During these moment, Chinese public has been very hopeful and constantly helping in dedicating their efforts for preventing the outbreak of coronavirus that has infected many. China has appeared as a united nation, and fighting the battle optimistically.

Jawaharlal Nehru University named after India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru became a war zone when a mob with their faces covered having sticks and rods thrashed students causing damage to the property inside the campus. The situation around the campus for the past few days was tense because the students were protesting against the increase in the university fees. Initially before this protest minor fights were reported. Moreover, Teachers Association had organized a peace march in Jawaharlal Nehru University. This was the time when they got attacked by a group of people with their faces covered beating people with rods and sticks creating a chaos in the campus. The incident is the latest in the violent crises in India. The police men were present in numbers that day but when some of the teachers and students were under attack they took their time. Being one of the Elitist University to enter inside one must get the clearance from the security guard so the students and the teachers, who are beaten up are raising their concerns that were the security guards just careless or were the administration of the university complicit in the attack that took place.

On the eve of attack around 50 people including women wearing masks holding iron rods in their hands moved from one hostel to another beating and threating students and teachers. The students who became the victim of this mob target allege that the group that beat them up were not gangsters but were part of Akhil Bharatiya Vidhyarthi Parishad (ABVP) which is a student union affiliated with the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP). The home Minister of the Country who comes from that party has ordered an enquiry and several ministers who have studied in this university have condemned the violence. But the students don’t feel safe anymore as many of them have left their hostels and have gone back homes.

The question that people are now asking is, as there is a sense of disbelief and panic that how such an attack took place. The students are not safe inside their hostels. The students of Jawaharlal Nehru University have been protesting against the controversial citizenship law and also more recently against the proposed fee hike. Amid the violence, on 5^th January one picture stands out with a women in check shirt, blue mask on her face and stick in her hand she was seen standing with a section of mob in a corridor. As the videos of the incident went viral, social media exploded with claims that the girl was Komal Sharma.

The question still remains, who were the masked goons who were responsible for beating JNU students? The left blames the ABVP, the right blames the left. Moreover, JNU student Union President Aishe Ghosh, who got injured in violence alleged that “it was an organized attack as they were singling out people and attacking. There was a clear nexus of JNU security and vandals as they did not intervene to stop the violence.” Congress leader Sanjaya Nirupam also raised his concerns about this attack stating that, “What happened in JNU was like a terror attack. The teachers and students were beaten up by masked goons. The way the student power is being suppressed is not good for the country. Every person in Delhi is feeling unsafe.”

The teachers and students claim that there is no doubt that it was a planned and pre-meditated attack in which the private goons from RSS or ABVP attacked the students and police did nothing as if they provided mob the protection. This depicts that the enmity of Modi government to JNU is well known. There are concerns that youth and the students should not be prosecuted to the point where the entire nation stands against the government. The attack took place on live TV which shows that it was an attack of impunity as it can only happen with the support of the government.

BY AQSA MUNIR KHAN 

The threat of chemical weapons is back today. The difference however is that chemical weapons have now reached the violent non-state actors. The willingness of the state and non-state actors to use the chemical weapons keeps growing with the increasing threats surfacing from different corners of the world. In order to prevent the threat of chemical weapons and the predictable future of the proliferation of the deadly weapons international community took up the initiative to stop the spread of chemical weapons. The only international convention for the purpose of eliminating chemical weapons is the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) which was signed in 1993 and entered into force in 1997. It works against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and employs a strong verification system for its signatories, although only four countries in the world haven’t ratified it. CWC aims at eliminating the weapons by destroying the stockpiles and a set of binding is designed to which the signatory parties must adhere. In the present world with modern technology easily accessible, the threat of a chemical warfare remains undestroyed even after its first use almost 106 years ago in 1915 by the Germans and French. Today the leaders, especially those who are engaged in a war in Syria pay little regard to the consequences that the use of chemical weapons can result into. Killing of innocent civilians, unmindful of age and gender is abominable, yet leaders have made decisions to use chemical weapons on the humans, which after attack keeps intact the infrastructure in the surroundings but annihilates all the breathing creatures that are present in the radius of chemical weapon’s target. Such a brutal use of chemical weapons, is crime against humanity and the world leaders must never normalize its use. In this regard, the efforts of Organization for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) must be appreciated, which has brought more than 90 countries on the same platform working together for disabling the use of chemical weapons, curbing its production and applying rigid international system of checks and balances. OPCW offers opportunities for those who are able to recognize those responsible for the use of chemical weapon. Moreover, OPCW offers investigation reports regarding the chemical weapon analysis, and has associated itself with worldwide laboratories where they work jointly for curbing the production of materials can that can used for a chemical weapon attack. To prevent the proliferation of chemical weapons certain measures must be undertaken by the states, as already laid in the charter of OPCW and CWC. Few of the preventive measures are as following:

• Verification: the toxic chemicals have many legitimate uses, such as they used in industrial processes but at the same time often these chemicals are used for the purposes which have been forbidden by the CWC. Thus the parties to CWC guarantee and verify that toxic chemicals are only being used for purposes that are not illegal under the CWC rules and regulations. A further step to this commitment is allowing the OPCW inspectors to visit the facilities where the chemicals and their precursors are produced. The inspection by the inspectors involves the verification process.

• Managing the International Transfer of Chemicals: The parties to CWC adhere to the rules and obligations for transferring i.e. import and export of the chemical weapons. The two elements of this obligation are: monitoring the transfer of chemicals between States and secondly, restraining the transfer of toxic chemical weapons to non-state actors. The weapons can only be transferred to a non-state party under the condition that latter provides the certificate for its end use and pledges not to transfer it to any other party.

• Developing the Capacity of State against Chemical Weapons: It is significant that the states are able to defend their population against the chemical weapons, for this purpose the parties to OPCW must develop programmes for national protection. OPCW has given specific programmes for this purpose such as detection and alarm system, developing decontamination equipment, enhancing medical capabilities etc. this means improving the military, civilian and also involves international capacity building and cooperation against the possible danger of a chemical weapon attack.

The threat of a threat of a chemical warfare is very much existential and have grown over the years as more and more bloodthirsty and power hungry non state actors are emerging on the chessboard of international politics. The focus of the use of chemical weapons has shifted from being used by a state’s military to the use of chemical weapons by an unknown violent actor, that has no home address to be held responsible and acts through strong network that can be transnational in nature. International peace, stability, and cooperation has become increasingly vulnerable to a terrorism through the use of chemical weapons. Many have been victim of its use in the modern world, especially the population of Syria who have experienced the horrors of the use of chemical weapons. The chemical attacks has no short term consequence, rather they are experienced by the victims for a long term. For example, it can result in eye damage which the victim will experience for a life time. The chemical weapon damages crops, which has a negative impact of national agricultural sector as well as the consumers. The water is also contaminated by the use of chemical weapons which can disturb the supply of clean drinking water to the population. Considering all the impacts it has become of prime importance for the world leaders and organizations like OPCW and CWC to continue their efforts in preventing the proliferation of chemical weapons.

Morocco and Israel to normalize their relations

Morocco is a country that has a long Jewish history. It has long been expected that Morocco will eventually normalize relations with Israel because before the formation of Israel in 1948, Morocco was home to Jewish people. Several thousand Jewish populations have been settled in Morocco for decades and Jewish trace their legacy back to Morocco. Israel and Morocco
developed diplomatic ties on a very basic level during the 1990s but those relations were halted by
the outbreak of a second uprising of Palestinians in 2000. The diplomatic ties were never ended
entirely because till this day about 50,000 Jews travel to Morocco every year to learn and connect
with their history there.
Recently on Thursday, Morocco and Israel have agreed to fully normalize diplomatic and official
ties with Israel. In a US brokered deal, Morocco is the fourth Arab country to normalize ties with
Israel along with United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Bahrain by setting the conflicts aside in past
four months. In order to acquire a firm deal between Morocco and Israel, US will recognize
Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara where Morocco is facing a decade long territorial
conflict with Algeria-backed Polisario Front, a movement to establish an independent country in
a territory. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu encouraged and appreciated the Morocco
for reaching a deal and called it another ray of light and peace. He further announced that there
will be direct flights between Morocco and Israel along with great diplomatic missions.
US has been trying to entice Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel but Saudi Foreign Minister Prince
Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud replied that Riyadh will only consider recognizing Israel if peace deal
will peace deal will “delivers a Palestinian state with dignity and with a workable sovereignty that
Palestinians can accept”.
Palestinians are feeling abandoned by the peace deal made by multiple Arab States and calling it
a betrayal against them. Palestinians believe that the peace deal will affect the status of their long
standing demand of Israel leaving the territory that rightfully belongs to Palestinians before
receiving any recognitions. Bassam as-Salhi, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organization’s
Executive Committee reacted belligerently and condemned deals made by Arab countries saying
that it is a retreat from Arab Peace Initiative (2002) that Israel must end its unlawful occupation of
Palestinian lands. Moroccan King Mohammed told Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in a
phone call on Thursday that negotiations between Israel and Palestine is the only way to resolve
the conflict and that he stands by the idea of Two-State solution.

U.S to Impose Sanctions on Turkey for Purchasing Russian S-400

The Trump administration is set to impose sanctions on Turkey for acquiring Russian S-400 missile defense system. The US House of Representatives adopted the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), for passing sanctions against Turkey. The bill was passed with a vote of 355 in favor while 70 votes against it. Since 2019, when Turkey received the S-400 Russian air defense system worth
$2.5 billion, Capitol Hill has been pushing Trump to impose mandatory sanctions on her NATO
ally. As an immediate response to this purchase, the US quickly expelled Turkey out of the F-35
fighter jet program. But President Donald Trump who spent much time in office improving
relations with Turkey, stalled the imposition of the penalties. The Pentagon has been warning that
the S-400 could likely jeopardize the F-35, if its radar is used to scan the jet passively. This would
allow the Russian system to easily identify the target and destroy its combat. Through the NDAA,
the US is to impose sanctions against the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline and Turkish Stream
pipeline. The sanctions would also include blocking US exports to Turkey, banning the officials
from making US transactions, or barring the US banks or other international monetary institutions
from making loans to Turkey. Such a move could be detrimental for the future Turkish economy.
Another response that is being considered by the lawmakers in the US is to further arms sales to
Ukraine. Two experts familiar with the issue said that the Trump administration would impose
sanctions “as mild as possible”. This would placate the Congress without causing damage to the
US extensive US-Turkey military partnership. In response to this pressure on Trump to impose
sanctions, he wrote on Twitter, “I hope House Republicans will vote against the very weak
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which I will veto.” But if the US Senate accepts
the bill, which it is likely to, the President will have no more authority to stall the sanctions any
further. This time the situation is tough for President Trump, who has only a few weeks left in the
office, because if the bill is passed and signed, it gives the President only 30 days to impose the
sanctions. However, if Donald Trump fails to impose penalties against Turkey, the new Presidentelect Biden would be obligated to enforce them as soon as he takes the office. Biden might go
ahead imposing the new sanctions but how harsh or mild they will be, depends on the nature of
the relationship between two countries. Relations with Turkey are a concern for the Biden
administration. This is the case due to the location, economic and military strength of Turkey,
which makes it a valuable ally for the US, especially against Russian threat. The US Congress
perceives close ties between Turkey and Russia as a political issue, which could also be detrimental
to the NATO operations.

Nuclear Escalation between Pakistan and India: Where It Could Lead?

Nuclear tension is increasing between India and Pakistan after the incident of the Pulwama attack on February 14, 2019. The two superpowers of South Asia are steps away from nuclear war, things got worse
when Pakistan Air Force (PAF) shot down an Indian fighter jet on 26th Feb 2019 in Balakot. Indian defense minister announces that India may revoke its existing commitment to only use nuclear weapons in retaliation for a nuclear attack known as ‘no first use’, that means India could Strike Nuclear weapon at any point.
Many analysts Expressed their views by saying both the countries became more aggressive
towards each other after 1998 when both became a nuclear power. Mr. Imran Khan mentioned the
risks of nuclear war between two countries on different occasions, on the other hand, Satinder
Kumar Sikka who was the part of Indian Nuclear program in 1998 argues that India should be able
to use nuclear weapons if there is an increased risk that Pakistan would do so first. “If we are
threatened by Pakistan, we have every right to retaliate”.
India tested its first nuclear weapon in 1974 and the government committed to no first use in 2003,
China is also in the list of No first use of Nuclear weapons but now Indian stance has been changed
& using the nuclear weapons at first. If India firms up the change in its no first use policy, Pakistan
might take this as a signal that India could strike at Pakistani nuclear installations. And that might
in turn, ready Pakistan to use up all its nuclear weapons first. “And so, you get this destabilizing
dynamic where as soon as the crisis becomes nuclearized, there is a reason for both sides to go
first for their upper hand.
The increasing tension between both the countries will further increase if any incident happens
again within the territory of India, without any investigation India is going to blame Pakistan and
could respond with force. In response to that Pakistan Military will retaliate and hence the conflict
will be promoted in this scenario, one party needs to be calm to avoid such conflict that could lead
to nuclear war. There is a lot of expansion in the nuclear stockpile from both the sides till 2025
both the countries will have 400-500 nuclear weapons. Increasing this much nuclear weapons is
an alarming situation for the region.