The inclusion of the African Union in the G20: A step towards a more inclusive and equitable global order

The 18th, G20 summit was hosted by “Bharat”, known as India this year. The summit was held on the 9th and 10th of September in New Delhi. During the inauguration ceremony of the summit, Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi announced that the African Union has been granted a full membership. Azali Assoumani, president of the Union of Comoros and chair of the AU, took the seat as a full member of the G20 shortly after the announcement. This makes the G-20 summit a structure comprising of 19 countries and two regional organizations. The African Union consists of 55 states that contribute 3.4% to the world’s economy. On the contrary, the G20 summit contributes 85% or even more to the world economy.

It is important to notice that President Modi had been insisting on granting the African Union a permanent membership in the G20 summit since the the “Voice of the Global South Summit” in January 2023. The African union has a population of 1.25 billion. It was high time that Africa as a continent to be included in this summit of the world’s most developed economies because surely, Africa does have the resources to meet the demands of the world but does not have the means to extract those resources. With this bold step in the right direction, the summit will now also be able to highlight the problems of the developing world.

The benefits that come along with this membership are that Africa will now be able to propose collaborative mechanisms with developed economies to counter the threat posed by climate change. This initiative will also encourage the developed world to tap the potential held by African continent. The African union will be heard as a collective voice when the global powers take important decision on climate, trade, and development. This membership would enforce good governance in the continent, as all the members of the G20 are committed to ensuring good governance and democracy. This would put pressure on the African states to uphold democracy and refrain from engaging in illicit methods of rule. In addition to this, the African union will also be able to initiate policies regarding investment with respect to climate change as Africa is a continent affected most by Climate change.

The biggest challenge faced by the African Union is in uniformity of opinion. The Russia- Ukraine war was a topic discussed at the G20- summit. While most of the nations in the African Union oppose the atrocities committed by Russia, some don’t. The Sahel region in Africa is taking the lead in pro-Western governments being overthrown by military dictators as a reaction to Western dominance over African security. It is speculated that these actions are motivated by the intention of joining the Russian bloc. Due to Russia’s and China’s objections to the language related to the Ukraine issue, member states have been unable to reach agreement on binding action. Based on their respective national interests, African nations responded to the Ukraine crisis, even so, that out of 54 African countries, only 28 backed the resolution; the others either abstained or opted not to attend the vote altogether over the Russia Ukraine war. This has additionally been explained as the emergence of African realpolitik. Finding an African stance that is broadly accepted, however, is still incredibly challenging. The AU’s claim to represent this enormous continent is also seriously questioned by the absence of its leadership in the mission. This puts the legitimacy of the union in question, will the union be able to take decisions with autonomy or will they be pressured into dividing themselves based on their interest.

Nevertheless, the initiative taken by India is a commendable step to promote diversity and equal opportunity regardless of race or ethnicity. In my opinion, I believe this step was taken to compensate for the absence of Russia and China. This action may have been done for Russia to raise suspicion regarding its support to the African Sahel where the Western dominance is deteriorating. In the absence of China and Russia, the inclusion of the African Union in the G20 could help to balance the power dynamics within the group and make it more representative of the global community. Moreover, the Western Bloc could be a sending a message to Russia that African Union is aligned with western values and the West will meddle in the affairs of the African continent where Russia is involved economically and politically. On the contrary, It could also help to build stronger ties between Africa and the G20 countries. For example, the African Union is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya. The inclusion of the African Union in the G20 would give these countries a greater say in global economic decision-making. It would also help to ensure that the G20 considers the needs of developing countries when developing its policies.

Finally, There are some challenges that need to be addressed, such as ensuring that the African Union has a meaningful and influential voice within the group. However, the benefits of the African Union’s membership in the G20 outweigh the challenges. The African Union’s membership in the G20 is a sign of the growing importance of Africa in the global economy. It is also a sign of the commitment of the G20 countries to working together to build a more prosperous and sustainable future for all.




The Great Reset

The Great Reset

The year 2020 marked the start of a new decade with an ever-growing advancement in technology and the rapid rise in industry, the world contemplated new opportunities and a promising future ahead. The New Year set in motion and the first few months signified a booming hike in innovation and technology. While Digital transformation rapidly crept up the ladder, 5G boasted to deliver the greatest surge in internet history and Artificial Intelligence geared up to be democratized. However, it all soon came crashing down in March.

With the outbreak of Covid-19, the world arrived at a standstill. The new pandemic came at a hefty price. Businesses closed down, development derailed and unexpecting citizens succumbed to the disease. The Earth plunged into an era of lockdown and human life converged to a halt. Most people quickly began to adapt to the new lifestyle, working from home, finding new hobbies, and exploring new avenues in their daily routine. A very specific group of powerful people came together, to utilize the pandemic and craft a silent plan to change the world.

The World Economic Forum:

Founded in 1971 by German engineer Klaus Schwab, The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international non-governmental organization comprised of the top 1000 companies and individuals around the world with members including King Charles, Donald Trump, Justin Trudeau, and Mukesh Ambani. The Organization speaks on contemporary issues like globalization, capital markets, gender gap, wealth management, international conflicts, and environmental problems. What sets the WEF apart from other similar cooperations is that it is a lobbying organization with memberships costing up to $630,000. These memberships are very much sought after and seldom available to ordinary members of society.


On June 3rd, 2020, the Royal Family released a video titled “The Great Reset”. In the video, King Charles urged cooperation and everyday individuals to make changes in their lifestyles by nature and move towards sustainable growth without properly addressing any ways to make that happen. While Covid along with other worldly issues were on the rise, in June 2020 world leaders gathered at Davos Switzerland and a WEF meeting was held which was unsurprisingly titled “The Great Reset”. A few key takeaways from the meeting were that the WEF wanted to push towards a more globalized society, run by multinational companies and world governments. The WEF perceived everything that was going on in the world as an opportunity to advance that interest. Discussions on the economy, and how to maneuver the world in the right direction in the light of Covid were highlights of the conference. In a 2020 article uploaded by the cooperation phrases like “reset and reshape the world” revolved around a very dubious tone. With all eyes pointing towards the WEF meeting, those watching from afar began to doubt the true nature of this agenda. Individuals and corporations around the world were quick to point out that the WEF was engulfed in an aura that was quite eerie. All over social media, movements sprung up and videos started to surface online which suggested that the Great Reset advocated for a consumer-only culture, turning the world into a hyper-global economy, and consolidating all power into the hands of a few. The fact that Covid had marked the right opportunity for world leaders to come together, argued that the great reset was the beginning of a new world order.

The theory of a possible new world order coming into place was picked up by journalists and political commentators and was even discussed during the Canadian elections. People began to inhabit a new wave of fear where they debated if the WEF was conspiring with political leaders to transition into a global economy. Was Covid a pandemic, artificially developed to bring about a sinister agenda? No one could confirm.

The Great Reset:
The Great Reset encompasses five core Principles which are as follows:
• Enhancing social inclusion:

Great Reset followers believe that the pandemic revealed shocking inequalities. The middle and lower middle class experienced more casualties as people could not afford to work remotely and had to be out in the open to make ends meet. The Great Reset fosters the need for social inclusion, to reduce inequalities and move towards decreasing the burden passed onto future generations.

• Reconstructing sustainable economies:

This includes investing in clean energy, addressing climate change and working towards a general decarbonization of the environment to fight global warming. This green growth would open new job opportunities as markets strive to attain sustainability and inclusivity.

• Escalation of the 4th industrial revolution:

The integration of AI in the world order would ensure that technology accelerates at a rapid rate, aids human life and attains intelligence that would prevent another epidemic from taking stage.

• Promoting sustainable business practices:

The new ESG paradigm (environmental, social governance) pushes businesses to adopt sustainable and ethical practices that consider environmental and social factors. A shift from “short-term” shareholder capitalism to a more equitable and greener “longer-term” stakeholder capitalism is pursued.

• Fostering resilience and preparedness:

The Great Reset highlights the need to strengthen global cooperation and preparedness for future pandemics and calamities. It emphasizes the need for a more equitable and inclusive form of globalization, which requires strong leadership to establish global governance.

The great reset file organizer

Where are we headed:

Whether the theories on the Great Reset hold any truth or not, one thing is certain. The world is in the midst of a shift. COVID-19, Inflation and economic impact have widened the gap between those who own assets and those who are less fortunate and given the current trajectory of the world, this gap is bound to grow. The evolving geopolitical dynamics point towards tensions between major world powers and shifts in global leadership. On the flip side of the coin, the Great Reset is meant to be the blueprint for a greener and fairer society and with organizations all over the world working towards this because it provides us with a redefined system of world economics. Risks of climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are avenues that need to be addressed, especially after Covid and corporations are actively engaged in exploring these paths.




The Thar Coal Power Project: Balancing Environmental Sustainability and National Security

Pakistan’s Thar coalfields cover an area of 9100 square kilometers and contain over 175 billion tons of lignite. These reserves are amongst the largest in the world, and equal to 618 billion barrels of crude oil. At $50 per barrel this asset is worth up to $30.0 trillion and equivalent to more than 187 times of Pakistan’s current GDP. Started in the early 2000’s the Thar Engro Coal Power Project is a massive undertaking that aims to harness Pakistan’s vast coal reserves to generate electricity. Completed in 2023 the Thar Block-I and Block-II are fully operational and jointly producing 9 billion units of electricity which are enough to meet the demand of 4 million households. Although it’s immense, this amount is still not enough to meet demands of the whole country and work on Thar block-III is currently underway.

Environmental Constraints:

Pakistan contributes a mere 0.9% to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and yet it is the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change. During the years 1999-2018, Pakistan lost ten thousand lives and suffered economic losses accounting for USD 3.8 billion due to climate change. Heat waves, water shortages and flash floods in the country have impacted lives and infrastructure. According to the UN, scorching temperatures have blazed wheat production all over the country and formerly arable land has been rendered not fit for growing crops. Pakistan’s wheat production capacity has reduced by 10% this year. Combined with the rising inflation and political turmoil in the country this has become a recipe for disaster. The Thar Coal Power project has raised important questions about the relationship between environmental sustainability and national demands. Pakistan is a nation caught in a difficult bind. Amid being highly vulnerable to climate change, the country also faces a severe energy crisis. Once complete, the Thar Coal Power Project would provide Pakistan with a reliable and uninterrupted source of electricity. However, on the flip side of the coin, lignite is one of the cheapest forms of coal which means burning it releases large quantities of greenhouse gases and ash. Environmental deterioration due to this project has caused water scarcity, food insecurity, and mass emigration. Improper disposal of coal ash has caused water contamination and soil pollution and have disrupted the ecological balance of the region.

Benefits of the project:

The Thar coal power project has the capability of producing 100,000MW of electricity when complete, enough to meet the demands of the country for over two hundred years. Coal mining has a history of providing jobs in areas affected by high poverty. Similarly, the Thar power project has employed of people especially from nearby areas and even whole families earning their livelihoods out of the same project. Pakistan’s unreliable power supply affects the productive use of energy. The power shortage in the form of load shedding costs Pakistan 7% of its GDP annually. The Thar coal power project contemplates a steady supply of power that will overcome this shortfall and will result in a positive growth and possible improvement in the country’s GDP. By providing additional job opportunities the project will result in prosperity in the region and stable wages for the laborers. Furthermore the project will result in reduced electricity costs and benefit industrialists, domestic consumers and economy of the country as a whole. This will also reduce the fuel import costs as a large chunk of the fuel imported into Pakistan goes towards power generation.

Impact on national security

In order to achieve high economic growth a country must be producing sufficient energy. The production of energy is directly proportional to the industrial growth and agricultural output of a country. National security refers to the survival of a state through the use of economic, military and political power. In this regard, adequate and cost effective supply of energy is the pre-requisite for socio-economic development and economic prosperity, which ultimately contributes to national security of a country. The Thar power project has great potential in solving Pakistan’s energy crisis and is seen as an opportunity to improve the national security. It also reduces Pakistan’s dependency on foreign imports for energy generation and grants autonomy to the country in producing its own electricity. However the success and impact on national security depend on how it is managed and the extent to which environmental, social, and economic considerations are taken into account. Proper planning, responsible resource management, and effective regulation can help ensure that the project contributes positively to national security by providing reliable energy and supporting economic growth while mitigating potential negative impacts.

The Thar coal project is a massive undertaking that has the potential to revolutionize Pakistan’s energy landscape. However, in the current times, the world is shifting towards an eco-friendlier environment in which non-renewable resources are being preferred to run industries. While the Thar coal project is an amazing opportunity to pay off our debt and generate much-needed revenue, it is important to consider the environmental impact of the project. Coal is a fossil fuel, and its combustion releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. However, there are ways to mitigate the environmental impact of coal power plants. For example, we can use carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to capture the carbon dioxide emissions from the power plant and store them underground. CCS technology is still in its early stages of development, but it has the potential to make coal power plants much more environmentally friendly. Another way to mitigate the environmental impact of the Thar coal project is to use the revenue generated from the project to invest in renewable energy sources. Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, do not produce any greenhouse gas emissions. By investing in renewable energy, we can reduce our reliance on coal and create a more sustainable energy future for Pakistan.

In conclusion, the Thar coal project is a complex issue with both pros and cons. While the project has the potential to generate much-needed revenue and pay off our debt, it is important to consider the environmental impact of the project aswell




How Armed Combat Affects Mental Health of Former Child Soldiers in Africa

Children recruited into armed groups are subjected to physical and psychological trauma. They may witness violence, death, and other horrors. They may be forced to commit acts of violence themselves, leading to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, depression, and other problems. The issue of the induction of children into armies can lead to a significant amount of damage, impacting not only their present but leaving them with a void that cannot be filled in a lifetime. In addition to the physical and psychological trauma, child soldiers are also often separated from their families and communities. This leads to social isolation and a sense of loss and abandonment. They may also miss out on education and employment opportunities, which can make it difficult to rebuild their lives after the conflict.

In the wake of Red Hand Day, the international community has pledged its responsibility to protect children from the use of child soldiers. This includes providing support to these children and ensuring that the programs built for their reintegration are run smoothly and efficiently. UNICEF works with government bodies to ensure transparency in funding and that the facilities in place are up and running.

The United Nations defines a child soldier as any person below the age of 18 who is, or who has been, used in any capacity by an armed group. This includes fighters, cooks, porters, spies, or for sexual purposes.

The importance of mental health for child soldiers cannot be overstated. The trauma they experience can have a lasting impact on their physical and emotional well-being. Children are not only subjected to the role of warriors in wars but some underaged females have also been reported to be used as sex slaves. Most of the children found in child militias have been reported to have been threatened, coerced, abducted, or manipulated. Children are threatened with the security of their families or are driven by extreme poverty to maintain the income of their families. The induction of child soldiers is a grave violation of child rights and the International Humanitarian Law.

While some may make it out alive, many of the children face biases as these children are viewed with suspicion or outrightly rejected by communities as they are seen as dangerous people. “There is always a suspicion that [ex-child soldiers] are not good people,” Tulieza remarked. Upon learning that they were once child soldiers, “[organizations] tend to discriminate against them and perceive them as criminals […] who must be kept out of society.” Child soldiers usually end up in internally displaced camps and refugee-seeking arrangements where they usually survive off the ration kits provided by UNICEF. The places where they reside normally do not have the facilities to provide adequate income or income opportunities. Child soldiers who have been deprived of quality education for most of their lives cannot integrate into society and compete with non-combatants. Non-combatants will always be happier individuals, having more access to quality education and stable livelihoods, while combatants that have been exposed to mass murder cannot be expected to compete together. A former child soldier said, “It’s the undervaluing of survivors,” he claimed. “Having survivors compete against non-survivors and viewing them as ‘normal people’.” Child soldiers have been blacklisted by the government and their information has been stored in the government system, making it harder for them to have clearances by police. The prejudice is also observed in travel visa procedures, making it difficult for them to seek asylum and start a new life abroad.

In 2021, it was reported that 6,130 children were recruited by different militias across the world. According to the United Nations, Africa is home to about 40% of the world’s child soldier population. About 30,000 of them are forced to work as slaves, soldiers, and laborers for armed organizations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo exclusively. In the spirit of Red Hand Day, Nigeria and Burkina Faso governments have withdrawn from their traditional practice of screening minors, but other African countries have yet to follow suit. Militant groups such as Boko Haram continue to recruit child soldiers and use them in Cameroon, Niger, and Chad.

Governments should work towards programs where these child soldiers can feel heard. The trauma of their experiences can result in PTSD. To cope with their trauma and learn to function in normal life, former child soldiers need to have access to psychological care. Both individual and group therapy, as well as community-based initiatives, can be used to provide this support. It is also important for governments to ensure that former child soldiers are protected from prejudice. Instances such as special screenings and fingerprint directories can cause immense amounts of trauma and humiliation for the former child soldier. Effective schooling programs are also essential for these child soldiers to have healthy interactions with their peers and develop skills so that they can compete with non-combatant children in their professional lives.

It is also very important for governments to cooperate with child soldiers and set up Microfinancing models for them to have businesses. This way poverty will never be a reason for them to join child militias. It is important to reintegrate former child soldiers into their communities in a way that is considerate of their needs and experiences. Community-based initiatives that foster tolerance and comprehension can do this. The media can also play a role in promoting tolerance and understanding of child soldiers. This includes responsible reporting on the issue, as well as the creation of positive portrayals of former child soldiers. Media can also help to raise awareness of the issue and the challenges faced by former child soldiers. They can use their platforms to raise awareness of the issue and to provide support to former child soldiers. Religious leaders can also help to challenge the stigma associated with child soldiers and to promote understanding of the challenges they face.

The international community must continue to work to end the use of child soldiers and to protect the rights of all children.




The Resilience Of North Korea In The Face Of Sanctions

North Korea is one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. The United Nations Security Council has imposed sanctions on North Korea since 2006 in response to its nuclear and missile programs. These sanctions have had a significant impact on the country’s economy, but North Korea has been able to find ways to evade them. The most stringent sanctions have been imposed by the EU, the US, and Canada, while Japan and South Korea remain the biggest hurdles in Asia. Although all of these markets have banned trade, humanitarian assistance is still provided to North Korea. However, it is unrealistic to think that the country’s exports can cover the expenses needed to maintain the luxurious lifestyle of its leader. Despite the strained relations that North Korea has with the rest of the world, the country somehow manages to survive. This begs the question: how? In this article, I will explain the techniques used by transnational networks to keep the country afloat.

History:

The Korean War was a proxy war fought between North Korea and South Korea, based on ideological differences. With the allied powers supporting South Korea, North Korea was left to defend itself with the help of the Soviet Union. After the end of the Korean War in the 1950s, the Soviet Union helped the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) run its economy. Until the 1960s, the USSR provided North Korea with technology, goods, weapons, and money. However, in the 1970s, Soviet support vanished. This meant that North Korea lost access to foreign goods, technology, weapons, and money, placing it in a vulnerable position.

Creation of Room 39:

As a result of these unfortunate circumstances, Room 39 was created. Room 39 is a state-sponsored criminal network that is used to fulfill the needs of the economy. The network is involved in trafficking weapons, counterfeit money, and distributing opium around the world. Room 39’s mission is to acquire capital for the state, as tourism and trade are not viable options to keep the economy running. In the 1980s, Room 39 expanded into the production of hard drugs. According to North Korean refugees, all drug operations are under the control of the ruling family. North Korea has a significant advantage over other criminal organizations because it uses the tools of the state to run this criminal empire. It uses its naval vessels and provides smugglers with diplomatic passports to ensure that illicit contraband is circulated all over the world. The use of transnational criminal networks is just one way that North Korea evades sanctions. The country also engages in other activities, such as trading with countries that are not signatories to the UN sanctions regime and using shell companies and front organizations to obscure the true nature of its financial transactions. This allows North Korea to exploit loopholes in international law and traffic in goods and services that are banned under sanctions.

The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations provides diplomatic immunity to diplomats, which means that they cannot be arrested or detained for their activities. This gives Room 39 a significant advantage over other criminal organizations, as it allows them to operate with impunity. The Vienna Convention provides a framework for the protection of Diplomats (VCDR Art. 29: “The person of a diplomatic agent shall be inviolable. He shall not be liable to any form of arrest or detention. The receiving State shall treat him with due respect and shall take all appropriate steps to prevent any attack on his person, freedom or dignity.” This allows North Korea to produce drugs such as methamphetamine and heroin, which are then smuggled all over the world by diplomats. The drug labs are located on North Korean soil, making them inaccessible to the international community.

Similarly, North Korea is involved in the production of counterfeit US dollars. The network of smugglers is so well-organized that the counterfeit bills have been found all over the world, including Las Vegas. The US Secret Service has called these bills some of the most sophisticated ever made. There have also been reports that North Korea has traded bullets for diamonds with Mugabe’s secret police in Africa. In addition, a North Korean diplomat has been accused of smuggling ivory and rhino horn out of Africa to resell elsewhere.

5th generation warfare:
While drugs may remain a primary means of maintaining their economy to sustain their military, North Korea has also created a cyberwarfare force called the Lazarus Group

The group was created in the 1960s to deal with the threat posed by fifth-generation warfare. The Lazarus Group has been linked to a number of cyberattacks, including the hacking of the central bank of Bangladesh and the WannaCry ransomware attack. The WannaCry ransomware attack was a global cyberattack that infected over 230,000 computers in over 150 countries. The attack was caused by a worm that encrypted files on the infected computers and demanded a ransom payment in Bitcoin. The worm exploited a vulnerability in the Windows operating system that had been patched by Microsoft in March 2017. However, many computers were still running the unpatched version of Windows, which allowed WannaCry to infect them. The Lazarus Group is believed to be responsible for the WannaCry attack, as well as other cyberattacks, such as the hacking of the Sony Pictures Entertainment network. The group is believed to be funded by the North Korean government and is used to steal money and information from other countries. The Lazarus Group is a serious threat to global security. The groups cyberattack have caused billions of dollars in damage and have disrupted critical infrastructure. The international community needs to take steps to disrupt the Lazarus Group’s operations and prevent future cyberattacks.

The resilience of North Korea in the face of sanctions is a testament to the ingenuity and determination of its leaders. The country has been under sanctions for over 15 years, but it has still been able to maintain its nuclear and missile programs. This is due to a number of factors, including the country’s isolation, its authoritarian government, and its fear of the United States. The sanctions against North Korea have had a significant impact on the country’s economy, but they have not been able to stop its nuclear and missile programs. The international community needs to find new ways to pressure North Korea to abandon its nuclear and missile programs. These new ways may include increasing the enforcement of sanctions, targeting sanctions evasion networks, and promoting international cooperation on sanctions enforcement.




The US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade: A Threat to China’s Interests in the South China Sea

On June 1, 2023, the United States and Taiwan signed a new trade deal called the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade. The deal is the first agreement under a framework for talks between Washington and Taipei that was established last year. It aims to strengthen economic ties between the two countries and open Taiwan to more US exports. The deal faced a lot of criticism from China as Taiwan is claimed to be a part of China. The Chinese government feels threatened by the fact that economic ties can further transform itself into a security partnership resulting in a wrong message to the Militarized groups fighting for a sovereign Taiwan. The relationship between Taiwan and the USA is a notable achievement as it’s a sign of economic growth and strategic alliances between the two countries. However, this deal also threatens the fragile relationship between China and the United States.

About the deal, the US and Taiwan have not agreed to a free trade deal. Rather, it term as a means of easing the exchange of goods between the two countries. The agreement addresses a wide range of economic concerns, including small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), good regulatory practices, domestic regulation of services, and anti-corruption. It also contains a promise to work together to address concerns like climate change and others according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

The Benefits Posed By the Deal:

It is anticipated that the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade will accelerate economic growth in both nations. According to estimates, the agreement will generate more than 100,000 employees in Taiwan and over 70,000 jobs in the United States. Additionally, a $30 billion annual boost in trade between the two nations is anticipated. The agreement will also contribute to the improvement of both nations’ supply chains. The United States receives a significant number of semiconductors and other high-tech components from Taiwan. The agreement will facilitate US companies’ access to key components, thereby minimizing interruptions to the supply chain.

Previously, the United States did sign other bilateral trade agreements but none were as promising as the US- Taiwan Initiative of the 21st century. The U.S.-Taiwan Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) is an excellent example of this. TIFA was signed in 1994 but failed due to political opposition from both countries, differing priorities, lack of progress, and China’s opposition. The two sides were unable to agree on key issues, such as the removal of tariffs on certain goods and the protection of intellectual property rights. China opposed TIFA and exerted pressure on both the United States and Taiwan to withdraw from the talks. The U.S.-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue (EPPD) is a similar example of how both countries lacked the political will to engage in a dialogue.

China’s Interests in the South China Sea:

The Peoples Republic of China published a map with a nine-dash line in 1947. When connected, the dashes form a U- Shape that encloses most of the South China Sea. Taiwan is also enclosed in that line, making it a part of Mainland China. The US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade could help Taiwan to develop its maritime capabilities and resist Chinese pressure. The United Nations Convention on the Law of Seas (UNCLOS) claims that China’s historic claim to the South China Sea was extinguished with the formation of the governing body. China can no longer claim control over these waters as these are beyond the 350 nautical miles continental Shelf. The 9-dash line extends beyond 800 NM posing a threat to Taiwan’s Independence. The deal could give Taiwan access to US technology and expertise, which could help it to develop its defense industry. This would make it more difficult for China to achieve its goal of reunification with Taiwan by force. Moreover, the Chinese dominance over the South China Sea can be threatened by the arrival of US vessels carrying goods for trade. While the whole world admires this bold tactic, this can result in skirmishes between Beijing and Washington. If China were to attempt to forcibly take control of Taiwan, the United States and China could go to war. The United States has a long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” in Taiwan, which means that it has not explicitly stated whether it would defend Taiwan if China were to attack.

However, the United States has also provided Taiwan with significant military assistance and has warned China against taking any actions that could destabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Now that they are coordinating in economic corridors, the United States would likely come to Taiwan’s defense. This could lead to a major war between the United States and China, with potentially devastating consequences for both countries and the world. There are numerous different scenarios in which a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan could occur. For instance, the United States might step in to prevent China from stopping all shipments to and from Taiwan to maintain the island’s economic viability. Or the United States might strike back if China attempted to target Taiwan’s computer system online. Any of these possibilities might result in a larger battle between China and the United States. If the US Navy Vessels were to enter the South China Sea to protect Taiwan, it would result in the use of Weapons of Mass destruction (WMDs).

China warned the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade, on Thursday against signing any deal “with connotations of sovereignty or of an official nature with China’s Taiwan region”. The Pentagon clarified that Beijing has declined all invitations to hold dialogue. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu are expected to travel to Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue. There is no indication whether the officials will meet.

The US-Taiwan Initiative’s full effects on trade in the twenty-first century are still unknown. But it’s a noteworthy development that merits attentive observation. The agreement might significantly alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region and help to find a solution to the Taiwan problem.




Niger’s Uranium Deal With Russia: A Major Boost For Moscow’s Nuclear Power Ambitions

Niger and Russia came closer as a recent coup d’et’at vouched for an end to the neocolonialist ventures of France. France has actively participated in the extraction of Uranium inside Niger for the past four decades. Since, Niger’s independence in 1960 from France, 90% of the Uranium rich mines in Niger are still under the control of the French nuclear fuel cycle group Orano. Uranium import contributes to the capability of France to produce Electricity from Nuclear energy. In 2021, France generated 361 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, accounting for 68% of their annual production.

Moreover, with the recent developments in the Sahel, with Mali and Burkina Faso taking the lead, pro-Western governments have been overthrown by military dictators as a reaction to Western dominance over African security. In Niger, on July 26th, General Abdourahamane Tiani was announced as the new head of state, days after saying they had ousted President Mohamed Bazoum in the seventh military takeover in West and Central Africa in less than three years. The rioters outside the French Embassy in Niger were a sight to behold. Nigeriens, waved the Russian flag, and chanted “Long live Russia,” “Long live Putin,” and “Down with France.” The scene was a shocking reminder of the deep resentment towards France, their former colonial ruler. Moreover, the crowd chanted for Wagner’s mercenaries group, indicating that the current population of Niger wants to break from the shackles of neocolonialism and enjoy itself as a free and independent country under the support of Russia.

Since Niger contributes 5% to the world’s pool of uranium, it has put the world in a perplexing situation where problems can arise. According to the website of the French nuclear fuel company Orano, Cominak is a joint venture between the government of Niger and Orano in the Arlit mine and Akouta mine.

In 2019, Rosatom was granted developmental access to the Imouraren mine located in a remote and insecure part of Niger. Formerly, in 2009, Orano was granted an operating permit but, due to the ongoing global financial crisis, Orano wasn’t able to justify their investment in the mine resulting in a halt. Furthermore, in the same year, Russia pledged 2 billion dollars to Niger’s Uranium mines. The series of events led to the belief that Russia’s relationship with France may be deteriorating as Russian involvement in the Coup has raised suspicion among the European Union. While there is no evidence regarding Russia’s involvement, in 2023 at the Russia Africa summit, Vladimir Putin said “Africa has suffered for too long under the yoke of colonialism. It is time for Africa to be free. Russia is committed to helping Africa to achieve its independence.” This statement serves to be the basis of Western suspicion. Russia is filling the void left by France in Africa, but its intentions are not entirely clear. Some see it as an opportunity to help the continent develop, while others worry that it is simply a way for Russia to gain control of Africa’s resources.

Niger is Eurotom’s second largest contributor after Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan, which was once a part of the Soviet Union, is the largest exporter of uranium to Europe. Uzbekistan, Kazakstan, Niger, and Russia account for 60% of the world’s uranium supply. The above-mentioned actors are believed to be in the Russian sphere of influence. The current circumstances have produced favourable grounds for Russia to control Western dominance over Nuclear energy.

Mine d’uranium de la SOMAIR (Société des mines de l’Aïr), Niger. (Photo by Maurice ASCANI/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)

The consequences of French withdrawal would result in Niger’s full control over its uranium resources. This would give Niger more leverage in negotiations with foreign companies and governments. It would also allow Niger to benefit more from the sale of uranium.

In addition, seizing the mines could help Niger to reduce its dependence on foreign aid. Niger is a poor country, and it relies heavily on foreign aid to fund its development projects. Seizing the mines could give Niger the resources it needs to develop its economy without relying on foreign aid.

As easy as this may sound, the White House national security spokesman John Kirby said “there was still no room for intra-African diplomacy”. United States has warned Niger to remove security and other forms of cooperation to tackle Islamic State West Africa (ISWA), Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS), Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Al Murabitoun, Ansar Dine, Katiba Macina and Boko Haram, in the region.

After the Coup, while the French were able to evacuate their Nationals, it’s now for the United States to decide if they are willing to remove their drone- bases Niger. The drone base located in Niger is a 100-million-dollar project. The long hands of the Kremlin are deeply integrated with the region as Wagner’s mercenaries are being called upon to tackle Islamic Jihadists in Mali, Burkina Faso and now, a similar play is to be observed in Niger. The power display used in the cold war is being replicated in the 21st century which has raised serious concerns in the West.

Russia’s ambition in the continent will contribute to her growth in Nuclear energy. Among all the other ventures that Rosatom has embarked upon in Asia, African Sahel remains the key to economic growth. If Niger can maintain neutrality in the future, it can benefit from cooperation made between Russia and the European Union. However, if one party remains to benefit then the world will witness a series of inescapable events resulting in a nuclear arms race. The Sahel is a complex region but it is a region with great potential. If Russia is to dominate the Nuclear energy market, promoting good relations with Niger can lead to Russia meeting the world’s global Energy demands. The future of the Sahel is uncertain, but it is a region that will continue to be important to the global economy and security landscape.