Afghanistan is undergoing a major shift backward as basic human rights are restricted there, despite the fact that the war is over and there is relatively peaceful environment. The decade long armed conflict is over but it has left long lasting affects in the region. The Taliban government may still be in contact with the outside community, but there is no indication that they have received official recognition. Even those nations that had been in favor of a more lenient approach to them have demonstrated deep concern over the Taliban because of their own inflexibility, which was encouraged by the hard-liners among them, regarding women and other human rights as well.

As Taliban did not get recognition and there have been no proper diplomatic relations between the Afghanistan and the other countries, so, the Taliban continued to follow their same old rigid policies. Things would have been different if the Taliban government was not into isolation. While Afghanistan remains cut off from the rest of the world, and is unable to accept a progressive rule that curtails equal rights for women and basic human rights, there is a realization that Taliban challenges being faced by the nation cannot be properly be resolved if the country and the government remains isolated. Not only this, reports of transnational militant groups reappearing in Afghanistan and posing a serious danger to regional security are even more worrisome. Militant organizations like Al Qaeda, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement also use Afghanistan as a base for their illegal activities. These organizations are a major source of concern for the regional countries as well

Now, Taliban radicals have no hesitation about marginalizing the more moderate Taliban members in order to promote their obscurantist beliefs over international participation. Such a policy will undoubtedly lead to disaster for a nation already battling with serious economic, social, and political issues.Back are the days in Afghanistan where the minority groups and women rights were sidelined and Afghanistan had existential crisis. Taliban government alone cannot take out Afghanistan from this chaos.

Introduction

The Taliban have been attempting to reassure neighboring nations that Afghanistan is open for business and that they can protect investment ever since seizing control of Kabul last summer. The Taliban have retained power in Afghanistan for almost a year now. The nation is severely cut off from the West, but neighboring nations, particularly China, have welcomed the Taliban with great enthusiasm. A Chinese diplomat, Wang Yi, spoke about the developments in Afghanistan in March 2022, praising “the Taliban’s enormous efforts to calm the situation and their attempts to offer public goods, some of which have been successful”. This early achievement displays definite Chinese influences. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) established a bilateral working group with the Taliban in December 2021 as part of the consolidation of its leadership. The discussions included humanitarian assistance and economic reconstruction, the export of Afghan goods to the PRC, the sharing of lessons learned from Chinese economic development with the Taliban, Beijing’s support for the restart of mining in Afghanistan, the realization of Afghanistan’s connectivity potential, and other topics. China is also utilizing its positive relationships with neighboring countries to forge a regional consensus and convince all of them to back the Taliban in Afghanistan. Chinese government representatives have participated actively in all regional discussions on Afghanistan since 2021 and actively participated in the cause of Afghanistan issue.

China’s Relief Aid

After an earthquake brought to light the negative humanitarian effects of Western sanctions, China’s ambassador endorsed trade and investment plans for Afghanistan in a statement. Ambassador Wang Yu presented $8 million in aid for relief from the June 22 earthquake that killed more than 1,000 people during a press appearance alongside the acting minister for disaster management for the Taliban government. Wang Yu visited the Afghan Red Crescent Society in Kabul to deliver relief amid recent natural disasters that have exacerbated an ongoing humanitarian calamity in Afghanistan.

Trade and Investment

Officials within the Taliban government, including the group’s supreme leader, have stated that the nation needs to become less dependent on aid and promote the business as well as investment in a speech given in July 2022. In addition to immediate humanitarian relief, Wang Yu said “we also have long-term economic reconstruction plans after the earthquake and the political changes last year. Trade would be given first priority, followed by investment and agriculture”. This step can be seen as a responsive measure to the Taliban Government’s statement which is taken by China for trade and investment in Afghanistan. Two significant mining projects, notably Mes Aynak, a copper mine in southern Afghanistan that a Chinese state-owned corporation that was arranged with the previous Afghan government, are currently the focus of negotiations. Large concentrations of iron ore and copper can be found in Afghanistan’s mineral resources, which are virtually unexplored. In addition, Wang stated that China “always believes that money belongs to the Afghan people” when referring to Afghan reserves locked in Western banks. China has consistently requested that the cash be released from the international community; this money will provide aid to a country in order to improve the lives of the people of Afghanistan.

China which has a massive Belt and Road initiative program which also influences its neighbors has repeatedly urged for the lifting of sanctions even it has a remote border with Afghanistan. As Beijing is eager to push for the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan and welcomed Afghanistan’s active involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative. Nearly all of Afghanistan’s neighbors support the idea of Taliban rule over the long term. Isolating the Taliban leadership will not help to achieve those objectives in Afghanistan, even while it is critical to constantly draw attention to the issues with human rights and the threats posed by terrorism that are connected to the leadership. Instead, Western isolation of Afghanistan has driven the country’s leadership toward China and alienated neighboring nations who were hoping to use Afghanistan’s potential as a hub for Central Asia and South Asia connections.

Conclusion

Many people anticipated Beijing would immediately intervene in Afghanistan’s political system to recognize and legitimize the Taliban leadership in the wake of the U.S. pullout from the country. In addition, it was anticipated that China will start investing in Afghanistan’s undeveloped natural resources immediately, on contrast China’s strategy has remained deliberate and slow initially. But now China’s policy towards Afghanistan has changed and shifted to take on a reasonably active role in a regional crisis that might negatively impact its entrenched interests. China’s attitude and actions in the region have shifted as a result of the Taliban’s dominance over Afghanistan. It remains to be seen how China would safeguard CPEC, stop transnational terrorism and handle the new issues posed by Afghanistan outside of its boundaries.

Afghanistan, a country which was already going through a lot has recently faced another crisis, earthquake. The biggest obstacle the Taliban have faced since seizing control nearly a year ago is a devastating earthquake in eastern Afghanistan that killed at least 1,000 people and destroyed homes in rural areas. The Taliban regime is in charge of an impoverished nation where the impacts of decades of war are still apparently felt and where there is a terrible drought, widespread hunger, and an economic catastrophe. Now, the earthquake has worsen the situation and has increased the chances of revealing the shortcomings of a government that is mostly no relations from the outside world and severely short on funds and resources.

While humanitarian aid is still being supplied, when the Taliban overtook Kabul last August, extended aid money was suspended. As the West pushes for concessions on human rights, notably for children and women, it has further enraged the Taliban by holding billions of dollars in Afghan reserves frozen abroad. The withdrawal of crucial development funding has devastated Afghanistan’s health sector over the past nine months. Taliban isolation limits Afghan response to earthquake. Pakistan, being a neighboring country has sent its assistance to Afghanistan but that is not enough for such a big disaster. To help the earthquake victims in Afghanistan’s war-torn province, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government had sent medical teams as well.

Adnan Junaid, IRC vice president for Asia also stated that there is a need for an international community to develop a plan outlining methods for resuming economic assistance, offering the central bank direct help, and ultimately freeing Afghanistan’s foreign currency reserves because the innocent population is suffering. There are major humanitarian crisis going on which needs to be settle down. The United Nations and international humanitarian groups should expand to meet their growing needs for the sake of humanity.

By Shaista Riaz, Research Associate at Pakistan House

There are major decisions that need to be made especially when we are witnessing a massive humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. The Afghani citizens and world leaders share one common dilemma, will the Taliban go back to its old ways or is it safe to trust the Taliban? Either way, the main goal should be to avert the current humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and gradually build a peaceful bridge between the Taliban and the rest of the world. This article aims to present an analysis of the current diplomatic setting affecting Afghanistan and provide brief recommendations.

Afghanistan in the last two decades built itself on an American model with no efforts to sustain it after the US left. According to more than 2000 pages of documents obtained by the Washington post, military commanders, diplomats, and aid workers revealed privately and in blunt terms, the US presence in Afghanistan to be an unclear mission, a failed strategy, and an effort to sway public opinion. For example, the Afghan government relied on foreign grants that financed around 75 percent of the public spending. This means that under the Taliban control that money will presumably dry up and the economy is poised to collapse. But it is not just about the foreign grants, the economy is danger from a major brain drain. Since the doctors, lawyers, and other skilled workers are fleeing the country, leaving Afghanistan with limited gains achieved in the past two decades. This is because the gains made under the US presence were not secured and the Afghan citizens are suddenly presented with a dilemma.
So, after twenty years of war in Afghanistan, many Afghans are left traumatized or have been killed by the Taliban, all while the overall sentiment is of deep betrayal. This sense of betrayal has emerged from the un-sustained efforts made by the US administration and by the US servicemen who executed those efforts, who are left questioning what it was all for. Hence, the US does have a clear obligation to take in the Afghan citizens who do not feel safe and grant them humanitarian parole.

Besides, China and Pakistan can play a major role by helping Afghanistan in its humanitarian crisis. Which could lead to stronger ties with the Afghan government. As Beijing is expected to recognise the Taliban regime, it may be futile to believe that the Central Asian states will not eventually recognize the Afghan government. One of the reasons for this possibility is because the Central Asian states have been an active part of China’s Belt and Road initiative. Although the debt burden is increasing in Central Asia, the countries have become dependent on the vested interests of Russia and China. Regardless of the prospect, Beijing has created an economic dependency of Central Asian states on China. This raises a question as to what extent would the economic dependency of Central Asian states can affect their diplomatic decisions? The general idea does dictate that the economic leverage can dictate the political decisions of a country.

Since the discovery of valuable minerals in Afghanistan, the bordering countries can envision a greater outcome of BRI’s presence in Asia. Russia has maintained security presence in Central Asia. However, Russian officials are now downplaying the Taliban’s threats, this could be because a Taliban government would be simpler to work with than the UN-backed government that has now departed. There is no doubt that the Taliban will be a difficult partner for China. Significant uncertainty surrounds the Taliban leadership’s idea of Islamic beliefs, as well as how this may affect the group’s foreign policy, particularly toward its Central Asian neighbours.

Another dimension focuses on the trade relations of Afghanistan that could stabilise the country to some extent and serve as a bridge between Afghanistan and the rest of the world. This can be seen with regards to trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan that might result in revenue benefits on both sides. After prolonged uncertainty in Kabul, exporters from Pakistan have resumed supplying goods to Afghanistan. In particular, the rise in fruit export from Afghanistan has been noticeable. Hundreds of trucks lined the Khyber Pass, the key road that connects Pakistan and Afghanistan across the Torkham border. They are loaded with food and are ready to cross the border into Afghanistan’s eastern Jalalabad. Trucks usually carry cement, sugar, flour, cooking oil, salt, bananas, pomegranates and other food items to Afghanistan. Moreover, Pakistan’s Finance and Revenue Minister, Shaukat Tarin, told the Senate Standing Committee on Finance that trade with Afghanistan would now be in rupees in order for the government to save its dollar revenues. Thus, recognising the need for bilateral trade with Afghanistan would not only benefit Afghanistan’s stability but also allow countries to construct sustainable markets with the new Taliban regime.

The least we could do is help alleviate the humanitarian crisis which is only achievable once the countries recognise their priorities, that is to support the people of Afghanistan. The Taliban regime also needs to understand that its actions in Afghanistan will be the determining factor for achieving the trust of its Afghan citizens and of the world leaders. One of the ways to achieve stability in Afghanistan is through establishing bilateral trade and allowing the market forces to engage Afghanis in economic participation. Moreover, in order to settle the fear of Afghan citizens, the US, Pakistan, and China can encourage soft power diplomacy towards the Taliban for long-term gains from economic and security aspects. As for Central Asian states, it is advisable for them to work alongside the Taliban to ensure the progress of BRI investments in their countries.

By Zara Qurban

Since the withdrawal of the U.S. troops and its European allies after decades of war in April 2021, Afghanistan is entangled in the wickedest kind of security. Afghanistan’s commandeering by the Taliban after the U.S. military withdrawal has presented the regional States with many new emerging challenges. An abrupt withdrawal of the U.S. military from Afghanistan has created a huge power vacuum and neighboring States are extending helping hands to avert the possible fall of Afghanistan.
Countries such as Pakistan, Russia, India, Iran and Turkey have their own grounds to intervene but now the global are on China including re-evaluating its persistent ‘non-interference’ policy. China was against the invasion of the U.S. military and also opposed the abrupt withdrawal stating that it will leave Afghanistan in mayhem. China’s Foreign Ministry said “the recent abrupt U.S. announcement of complete withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan has led to a succession of explosive attacks throughout the country, worsening the security situation and threatening peace and stability as well as people’s life and safety.”
Many spectators are considering the exchange of dialogues between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the Taliban leaders an attempt by China to exert more influence in the region. But, China does not look at Afghanistan from the lens of prospects, the Chinese influence and involvement, especially after the U.S. military withdrawal, is all about the management of threats. Another observation entails that Chinese political and economic interest in Afghanistan revolve around the wariness of Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for militant groups targeting China like the last time Taliban were in power.
Though Mullah Baradar and Wang Yi in Tianjin have been in contact for decades, the Taliban’s ideological agenda does not fit well with China. Andrew Small, Associate Senior Policy Fellow, states, “China certainly has substantial commercial and economic interests in the wider region, but they are minimal in Afghanistan itself. Its major investments there, the Aynak copper mine and the Amu Darya energy projects, have been in stasis for many years. There have been numerous discussions about Afghanistan’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative, including connections to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, but Beijing’s view has been that, in Afghanistan, stability has to precede serious new economic commitments.” Other than copper, Afghanistan has untouched mines of minerals such as cobalt, iron, mercury and lithium which are estimated to the value of about $1 trillion.
In order to maintain better political and economic relations with Afghanistan, China offered to rebuild the infrastructure “by funneling funds directly to the group through Pakistan.” As a result to continuous exchange of dialogues and China’s commitment of support in Afghanistan, the spokesman for the Taliban Political Office in Qatar established that they recognize China “as a friend of Afghanistan”, he also stated that Taliban and Afghanistan will no longer provide refuge or safe haven to Muslim Uyghurs. On one occasion the Chinese foreign minister said that Taliban are expected “to play an important role in the progress of peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan.”
China’s policy towards Afghanistan is primarily based on the security implications resulting from the U.S. and Taliban peace agreement, which China believes in not going in the right direction. The disturbances, instability and radicalization will eventually seep through the borders into China. As per the researchers based in Afghanistan, “through military assistance, China helped Kabul build its military mountain brigade in the Wakhan Corridor near Afghanistan’s northern Badakhshan province with the primary goal of preventing infiltration by the Islamic State into China.” It is believed that Beijing will keep close bilateral ties with Afghanistan in order to tightly manage any spill over into China by engaging all its diplomatic energies because it fears that the success of Taliban might encourage militant groups to carry out terror activities. If the security situation becomes better in Afghanistan, China is likely to go forward with more investment plans and programs but it will be very cautious.

The Afghan Peace Process has welcoming prospects for Pakistan, which is an immediate neighbor of Afghanistan. The two neighboring countries have shared tortuous relations in the past, but the peace talks are expected to have a positive impact on their relations. The peace talks provide Pakistan an opportunity to strengthen its presence in the regional politics. The Afghan Peace Process will help Pakistan suppress the antagonistic actors in Afghanistan from prospering. The initiation of peace process was the extensive diplomatic effort by Pakistan that made the process to follow the path ahead smoothly for which Pakistan was appreciated by USA. Pakistan is ambitious to project herself as a peace loving State and also that the prosperity of the region is closely linked to having peace in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan has been making sure since the beginning that the peace process is completely Afghan owned and no external factors gain access to any kind of interference.

To encourage and improve the trade and investment relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, National Assembly Pakistan has organized a two-day seminar titled “Pakistan and Afghanistan Investment and Trade Forum” on Monday 28th, 2020. Prime Minister Imran Khan addressed to the seminar as chief guest. 17-member Afghan parliamentary delegation, led by Speaker of Wolsey Jirga Mr Rahmani are also a part of this seminar. The USAID Pakistan has extended a supportive hand for the sake of regional connectivity and integration initiative. While addressing to the seminar, Prime Minister Imran Khan along with NA Speaker Asad Qaiser and Speaker of Afghan Wolesi Jirga (Afghanistan’s parliament) Mir Rahman Rahmani insisted on boosting the trade and investment between Pakistan and Afghanistan to generate more wealth and to encourage the industrialization. They also emphasized that the normalization of traffic between states will improve the condition of trade that has been damaged further by the pandemic.

Prime Minister Imran Khan said that the connection between Pakistan and Afghanistan is quite old and no foreign interference has ever succeeded in Afghanistan. He further explained that Afghani people have always taken their own decisions and Pakistan will be happy to work with any government that Afghani nation will choose. Prime Minister sympathetically said that the 40 years of tragedy in Afghanistan is unfortunate and it has been effecting Pakistan for past 18 years as well. He also suggested that dwelling in past has only causes mistrust but we, as nations, need to look beyond it to reassure transit trade and future investments. Following are the economic peace dividends for Pakistan and Afghanistan if the Peace Process materializes:

The first and the most significant dividend of the Peace Process is the Afghan-Pakistan trade. Both countries will be able to continue trade without the irritant of smuggling of timber, mineral resources and other goods. Afghan Peace Process will pave the way for traders to do open and legal trade which will eradicate the illicit trade in form of smuggling. This will

encourage the small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in both countries to enhance legal trade of goods and products.
The second dividend, also economic in nature, relates to creation of regional energy corridor. The end of instability, and war offers Afghanistan and Pakistan a safe corridor into Central Asia. This would create a regional energy corridor from Sixth, Central Asia into South Asia. The economy of Afghanistan can flourish if it can earn revenues by levying the TAPI Pipeline. Afghanistan will be able to extract royalties from these projects and also meet her energy requirements. Moreover, peace in Afghanistan, the “Heart of Asia,” will allow Pakistan and other South Asian countries to connect with Central Asia, which offers a great opportunity at developing Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) electricity transmission line.

Thirdly, it is significant for Pakistan’s national interest to have a peaceful border at the western end. The success of the Afghan Peace talks can guarantee peace within Pakistan. If the Afghan government, Taliban and the US find common grounds as a result of negotiations, it will be advantageous in helping curb the terrorism that has caused immense damage to both nations. This will be vital for safeguarding Pakistan’s security interests along the Pakistan-Afghan border. Peace and stability in Afghanistan is in the utmost interest of Pakistan.

The fourth dividend of the Peace Process relates to the role of Pakistan as a negotiator in the Afghan Peace process. The Peace Talks help Pakistan in building up her pragmatic image globally. During the entire process, Pakistan represents itself as a country that is dedicated to peaceful development in the region. Stability in Afghanistan will bring out the positive and peace-loving image of Pakistan to the world, Pakistan will have a peaceful neighborhood. The rigorous efforts as a negotiator have helped Pakistan gather international appreciation. Pakistan holds a significant position in the Afghan Peace Process because as a central player, attaining peace and stability in Afghanistan would not be possible without her participation. The Afghan peace talks are not only a golden opportunity for achieving peace in Afghanistan but offer a chance for Pakistan to gain a reputation of “Peace Promoter,” at the international chessboard of politics.

Fifthly, the efforts of Pakistan demonstrate her clear intentions for Afghanistan. The dedicated efforts on both sides will help regain the lost trust and push both countries towards mutual cooperation. Reducing the trust deficit is crucial for building peace in the region.

Sixth, the active participation of Pakistan in ensuring peace in Afghanistan will subsequently lessen the influence of India in the region and in Afghanistan. This is important because India, an aggressor state, has been taking advantage of the hinges between Pakistan and Afghanistan, both trade-wise and as well sentimentally. The Peace Process holds a tantamount position in the relationship of both countries.

Seventh, if Pakistan is able to lessen the influence of adversaries in Afghanistan, it would augment the communication between the leadership and the people on both sides of the border.

The Peace Process will restart the trade, freedom of movement, economic prosperity, and strengthening of defense between Pakistan and Afghanistan which will eventually help the economies to travel towards betterment since Pakistan also provides the shortest access to the sea for landlocked countries. If Pakistan’s objective of bringing peace in Afghanistan materializes, great dividends for both countries will just be one arm’s length away.

One-day international conference on “Afghanistan Crisis: What Lies Ahead?” was organized by Pakistan House on Monday, March 19, 2018 at a local hotel in Islamabad. The conference mainly focused on understanding various factors of instability in Afghanistan and how Pak-Afghan alliance can better serve economic, security and peace in the region. The conference also aimed to identify the possible measures that how Afghanistan can address Pakistan’s concerns about India’s negative presence on its soil and how Pakistan can help countering economic and security challenges that are relevant for the regional stability. An effort was made to develop a solution based approach, in order to assess future policy options.

The dignitaries of the conference included, Lt Gen Asif Yasin Malik HI (M) (Retd.), former Defence Secretary, Dr Abdul Baqi Amin Director General, Centre for Strategic and Regional Studies (CSRS), Kabul, Mr Jean-Francois Cautain Ambassador, Delegation to the European Union to Pakistan, Ambassador Syed Abrar Hussain (Retd.), former Ambassador of Pakistan to Afghanistan, Mr Rahimullah Yousafzai Resident Editor, The News International, Peshawar and Correspondent BBC World Service, Maj. Robert Gallimore (Retd.) Defence Analyst, Brig Ishaq Ahmed (Retd.), Director, International Security, SASSI, Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee, General Ehsan ul Haq (Retd.), HI (M) NI (M), Lt. Gen Khalid Rabbani (Retd.), former MD, Army Welfare Trust, Pir Sayed Ishaq Gailani, Founder and Chairman of the National Solidarity Movement of Afghanistan, Dr. Khurram Iqbal, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, National Defence University, Islamabad.

Lt Gen Asif Yasin Malik HI (M) (Retd.), former Defence Secretary, in his opening remarks said that Afghanistan is more important to Pakistan than any other country in the region. He argued that unstable Afghanistan is a great threat for Pakistan and instability in Afghanistan is a direct threat to CPEC. He recommended that border control should be strengthened in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Both countries should take extra steps for bilateral trade and Pakistan has to assure that its soil should not be used against Afghanistan.

Dr Abdul Baqi Amin Director General, Centre for Strategic and Regional Studies (CSRS) added that the people and government of Pakistan have helped Afghanistan with the most difficult conditions during the battle of the Soviet Union, with more than five million Afghan refugees in their homeland, and so far, about two million Afghan refugees are still living in Pakistan. He argued that good governance in both countries was badly damaged by political instability and failed to properly manage the facilities in the two countries. For this reason, both countries are struggling for good governance. The necessity of governance for the people of both countries is urgent and fundamental, and the people of both neighboring countries are severely affected by the lack of good governance. He stressed that serious efforts need to be made to build trust between the two countries. In his view, negotiations against each other should be stopped. The door to dialogue and understanding should be left open forever and all the demands will be clearly discussed with each other. Civil society organizations should play a constructive role in resolving tensions between the two countries, especially search centers should play an effective role in expressing the consequences of tensions between the two countries, try to convince the politicians of the need for regional cooperation to be a positive influence on decision-making directions.

Mr Jean-Francois Cautain Ambassador, Delegation to the European Union to Pakistan, suggested that the safety of the population in both countries is important. Suspension of dialogue between the two states should be eradicated. We should focus on the economy and security to solve the Afghan crisis.

Rana Athar Javed, DG Pakistan House argued that reconciliation and negotiation would become the only way forward as the loss of lives and property in Afghanistan has marred the aspirations of emerging Afghan youth. The US and its allies need to provide a comprehensive support system, and they should allow a regional stability approach involving China, Russia, and Iran. On principles, Pakistan does not object to India’s role in helping Afghanistan’s development sector, but Afghanistan must address Pakistan’s genuine concerns about India’s support to foreign militants especially TTP. The Pak-Afghan alliance in eliminating the network of foreign militants on Afghan soil is vital. He concluded that the issue of border management should be resolved through implementing mutually agreed immigration regulations.

Maj. Robert Gallimore (Retd.) Defence Analyst, stressed that the situation in 2018, is very different, India is pouring money into Kabul and into plethora of proxy actors across Afghanistan, using Afghan soil to destabilize Pakistan. In his view, Indo-Afghan alliance offers very little benefit to India beyond frightening Pakistan. What Kabul and Islamabad must do is to learn how to manage the borders effectively so that the border mismanagement does not affect the wider security of the region.

Pir Sayed Ishaq Gailani, Founder and Chairman of the National Solidarity Movement of Afghanistan, said that India has used Afghanistan against Pakistan and certain elements in Afghan Government are supporting that. Neighboring countries and Afghan Talibans have to sit together to solve this problem and have to engage in Productive dialogue efforts.

Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee, General Ehsan ul Haq (Retd.), HI (M) NI (M) concluded the event by suggesting that no two countries can be compared in their identical ties with any other country. First the US and the Taliban have never had a fundamental problem, they always said that they are struggling against foreign occupation and they must end linkages with outer extremist networks and foreign forces, and should accept Afghan Constitution. There are three parties to the conflict. The Afghan Government, Taliban and Pakistan. The US must put its conditions on the table for withdrawal from Afghanistan The dialogue must be robust and back channeled between US and Taliban. The ceasefire must come unilaterally from US and the Afghan government.

By Harriss Ali Akakhail

Winters, across Afghanistan are exacting and extremely harsh at northern side of the country. All major passes and gorges, running north to south and east to west are frozen at this fall and the limited number of access roads in Afghanistan is mostly out of order for vehicles to be play upon it. This climatic change makes the curves over war graphs goes down well and both varying sides i.e talibans and Afghan / Foreign forces takes a deep slumber, to regroup and recuperate well before the start of next spring.

For last 11 years, since the time talibans have announced and launched proper fighting seasons in a year, war commences in Afghanistan well at end of April in a calendar year and spikes up pace till November, amounting to almost 7 months duration. When the fighting season ends, talibans fizzle out for a slumber of winter’s sojourn along with their families, wounded ones recuperates and those who left for eternal abode are being prayed upon. This is the time when talibans elders sits and calculates expenses, dead, injured, attrition ratio, areas gained and lost along with future predictions and game plans. Winters are crucial in a sense that money earned from drug protection routes all over the year are filled in the coffers and payments are done to the weapon suppliers over the black market. While on the other hand afghan and foreign forces also gets off the hook from talibans onslaught and takes time out to rest, revise modules, check on financial exercises, look after the injured, count on the dead ones and jot down future course of actions. So all in all, winters in Afghanistan are actually the time when there is complete lock down from the horrors of war and mayhem of bloodbath.

After US President Donald trump announced his afghan policy review in late august 2017, present winter does not seems to be the one like observer have gauged in last 11 years. During this fall, U.S. /NATO forces are doubling the size of Afghan Special Forces, amounting to 37,000 in numbers, as they seek a future where victories against talibans and ISIS are attained by Afghan Special Forces. In this regard, few months back an Afghan Special Forces corp is also being raised at Kabul. This Special Forces corp is now being backed up by air assets like turbo prop A-29 super Tucanno close air support aircrafts and MD-530F attack helicopters along with Cessna 208 caravan aircraft for intelligence and resonance purposes. This corp size strength shall be ready by all means till the month of April this year, when the fresh fighting seasons beings. Also during this fall, close to 6000 additional U.S. / NATO troops are in process of landing and getting adjusted to Afghanistan’s war. One more vivid change by this fall is that every night there are 8 to 10 daring air raids over Taliban and ISIS-K (khurasan) hideouts across Afghanistan by US Special Forces operators followed by relentless drone and Jet airstrikes. Indeed it’s giving sleepless nights to the talibans / ISIS-K fighters and the old fashion sojourn in winters is a forgone story now. Spike in night raids and drone strikes was perceived after U.S president gave complete leverage to his forces to attain victory by best of all means. Till now, numerical exercises of night raids / drone strikes have earned few dividends to U.S. forces in Afghanistan like the killing of talibans Special Forces commander, Haji Nasir and Al Qaeda important commander, Umer Khitab.

US forces commanders in Afghanistan and afghan top leadership in particular have always complained about a quarter of Taliban fighters, mostly the top leadership, fizzling out to afghan refugee camps in Pakistan during winters for a low activity life oscillating between their families. They claim that winters is an opportune time to pluck these high value targets but limitations bounds them as they are not in afghanistan. But this time, that’s even not the case as Pakistan have strict check and balance system over the borders. Proper visa restrictions are imposed for incoming Afghans and process of registration of all refuges living inside Pakistan have been complete. So, gone are the days of such hypothetical claims and this fall, afghan Taliban top tier shall all be there, inside Afghanistan and it’s up to US intelligence to be agile enough to nab these wanted men.

Then, exceptions are always there, there may be few amongst the top Taliban leadership who would still reside over in Pakistan and that’s the real bone of contention presently tangled between U.S. and Pakistan. As U.S. asks Pakistan to nab them and hand them over while Pakistan recoils back that, we don’t have any information of their movements inside Pakistan and if you have any knowhow of it, identify and we shall act on it. Over numerous occasions in past 3 months, intelligence was shared by U.S. and Pakistani forces promptly acted but to no avail except for one case when the Canadian / US couple was released from the clutches of Haqqanies near Kohat city of Khyber Pukhtoonkhuwa province.

How well this strategy of preparations at this fall like strengthening the strength of afghan commandos along with air assets and relentless aerial bomb runs would be deduced within next few months’ time but during the present course, U.S. commanders in Afghanistan needs to realize that killing top 5 or 10 of Taliban won’t be a bounty over here as they need to focus more on the lines of communications and logistics of Taliban. From where they get an ample supply of weapons and explosives, that question needs to be addressed. Pressurizing Pakistan to get the top 5 wont draw a relative desired results as alternative command structure always persists within Taliban ranks. If one commander dies, within no time the next takes over and he paddles the accelerator with more vigor. A prime example in this this regard would be of Taliban ameer, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor or Haqqanies influential commander Sangeen Zadran as when they both got a hit from a drone strike at different occasions but within no time alternative leadership filled the vacuum.

The writer is a visiting fellow at Pakistan House and a renowned Journalist & expert on Afghan affairs. He can be reached at haris_k_9@hotmail.com.