14 August is a day that the people of Pakistan celebrate every year as it changed the history of millions of Muslims in the subcontinent. It was in 1947 that the dream of those forefathers was realized through the aspirations and dreams of our forbearers. The establishment of Pakistan was not an arbitrary political change, made on a map, but was an incredible act. This achievement is bought with blood and tears and sacrifices of a thousand thousand men. This Independence Day is not merely an occasion to celebrate sovereignty but also a day that makes us reflect on the sacrifices made by our forefathers so that this freedom could be achieved, and a call to our brothers and sisters in Indian-occupied Kashmir who continue to aspire to the right of self-determination.

The road to independence was a long, hard one. The political awakening of the early days under Sir Syed Ahmed Khan to the philosophical vision of Allama Iqbal and the ultimate leadership of Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah enabled every step to show the vision and relentlessness. Even though ill health took him seriously, Jinnah dedicated his last years to the cause, despite his declining health, to make sure that the pace of the Pakistan Movement never wavered. He was accompanied by his sister, Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah, who fought side by side with him in mobilizing women and providing political support to the Muslim League. Many leaders, activists, and commoners sacrificed themselves in this national cause, and it is a common realization that their individual sacrifice was the cost of a free nation.

The 1947 Partition stands out among the most significant and most traumatic mass movements of people in human history. A total of over 15 million had been displaced, and they had to leave their homes, businesses, and their ancestral lands and cross the newly defined borders. Indescribable struggles characterised the road to the process; in the stations, trains rolled in with the lifeless bodies of people who had gone in hopes but could never reach the shore. Communal massacres extinguished entire families, and two million people were said to have lost their lives during the violence that accompanied independence. The people who had survived had to support their lives with nothing. Highly qualified people, such as professionals, business people, and civil servants, who immigrated to Pakistan took on lower jobs and wages to help the country survive. They were the pioneers of the early institutions of our state and the impetus that set the dream of a prosperous Pakistan that was not motivated by individual benefit.

Ever since its formation, Pakistan has celebrated Independence Day with pride and thanksgiving. It starts with hoisting the national flag in Islamabad, the national capital, with speeches made by the President and Prime Minister, paying tribute to the past sacrifices and the country’s vision for the future. The green and white flags are set a-fluttering on the rooftops of cities and villages, the roads are gay with buntings, and the air is filled with patriotic songs. The group of family members sits at a table, sharing the experiences of their elders in getting through the hard times, teaching resiliency to the young ones. Such cultural programs, parades, and exhibitions bring history to life and guarantee that the spirit of 1947 will never be forgotten.

But as we relish in our freedom, we do not forget our conscience, which reminds us of our pending business of Partition, the destiny of Jammu and Kashmir. Princely states were supposed to be merged with either India or Pakistan at the time of independence, depending on the location and the desires of the population. Kashmir, as a place with a substantial Muslim majority and cultural closeness to Pakistan, was supposed to join Pakistan. Instead, the Indian troops went into the region in 1947, igniting the initial war between the two new states. The Indian voters in the occupied Kashmir have since lived under decades of military occupation, human rights violations, and political oppression.

Kashmir has experienced uninterrupted brutality for more than three-quarters of a century. There have been months of curfews imposed on entire towns, communications have been cut so they can no longer communicate with the rest of the world, and thousands have been detained with no trial. Extrajudicial killings, torture, and the targeting of civilians have been documented by reports issued by international human rights organizations. The annulment of Article 370 in 2019 reduced the freedom of the territory, and that only heightened the feeling of betrayal and occupation. Despite this, the Kashmiri spirit has not been crushed. Their struggles can be traced back to the first rebellions, like the Poonch Rebellion of 1947, to contemporary rebellions. People feel a need to fight against the same cause that brought the Pakistan Movement, that no nation has the right to deprive people of their freedom and dignity.

It is not only history that ends at 1947, but also the history of sacrifice. Despite wars, economic crisis, natural calamities, and political failures, Pakistan has had the choice of living a stable life, and the greatest asset of the country has been its people. Leaders such as Liaquat Ali Khan, the first Prime Minister of Pakistan, stabilized the young state at the cost of his own life, having been assassinated in 1951. The army has played its role to protect the independence of the country against all odds, and numerous soldiers have become martyrs to keep the fatherland safe. The living legacy of the commitment to autonomy consists of such sacrifices.

Independence Day is thus not just a time of recollection; it is something that we look forward to achieving. It is a reminder of how, within Pakistan, we were united, how the state was built through faith and with discipline, and how we applied these same things in dealing with our problems today. There are areas that we should strive to improve in, and these are the strengthening of the democratic institutions, guarantee of social justice, education investment, and the attainment of a self-reliant economy. Meanwhile, we should not relent in supporting Kashmiri people on diplomatic, political, and moral aspects. Their freedom is not merely a local issue-it is an issue of redeeming the promise of justice upon which our independence struggle was based.

When the green and white flag is hoisted on August 14th, it not only shows our sovereignty but also our generation’s sacrifices. It bears the memory of those who died so that we might live as free people. It also bears hopes about the people of Kashmir, whose right to self-determination has never been fulfilled yet. This Independence Day, we should feel proud of what we have accomplished, salute our martyrs, and rededicate our commitment to support our Kashmiri Brothers and Sisters until the day they, too, will be able to breathe freely in their land.

Opportunities for a Strategic Economic Reset

Perhaps one of the most crucial and cyclical relationships in Pakistani foreign policy has been between Pakistan and the United States. It has lapsed and switched in the last 70 years between intimate collaboration and bouts of unbridled estrangement. It has been influenced mainly by developments in the global strategic sphere, and no longer by bilateral plans. Pakistan has been labeled as the most allied ally and the most sanctioned ally of the United States, with an emphasis on its vacillations in the American priorities. In the past, peak periods of engagement have been attributed to common geopolitical interests, e.g., Pakistan as a catalyst in U.S. and Chinese rapprochement in the 1970s, as a partner in disengagement of Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and as a frontline ally in the post-9/11 war on terror. These incidents showed that whenever both countries have worked hand in hand, the effects of such have not been limited to their respective countries but instead have affected the world strategic balance itself.

A decisive paradigm shift occurred in 2021 when the United States’ war in Afghanistan came to an end. The loss by Washington of its logistical routes, counterterrorism operations, and showdown with the Taliban through negotiations meant a significant drop in the strategic centrality of Pakistan. If this new reality held, it was reflected in the policies of the Biden administration. There was no demonstration of high-level White House commitment: President Biden never spoke to a Pakistani leader, and contact at the diplomatic level consisted of mid-level programs, such as the Green Alliance, dialogues on health matters, and aid after the 2022 floods. There was military-to-military coordination, especially on the issue of over-the-horizon counterterrorism in Afghanistan, but the relationship was not sufficiently economically or politically based. According to Brookings scholar Madiha Afzal, bilateral relations reached an “unspectacular equilibrium,” which is characterized by minimal cooperation in select fields as well as the primacy of Washington in its obsession with the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons stockpiles.

However, with the change that occurred in Washington, the discussion over whether this partnership can be expanded into a more comprehensive one has been reopened. With the departure of President Trump, a new diplomatic style, transactional, leader-to-leader, and deliverables-based, has emerged that presents opportunities as well as challenges to Islamabad. The problem is that Trump very clearly tied any trade agreement to Pakistan, avoiding confrontation with India, especially honoring the ceasefire he says he negotiated in May. Such a situation leaves Pakistan in a precarious position between the regional geopolitics and its trade interests. The opportunity is based on Trump’s economic priorities, including rare earth minerals, U.S. leadership in cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence, and increasing its energy exports, which all overlap with where Pakistan can add value.

The past couple of months have witnessed Pakistan positioning itself to exploit this alignment. In April 2025, a Mineral Investment Forum in Islamabad was held at a high-profile event, with an estimated USD $6 trillion worth of yet undiscovered mineral reserves on display and offering U.S. corporations highly favorable terms to entice them to come. This went along with an offer of a zero-tariff bilateral trade agreement to expand market access, American investment, and Pakistan’s imports of U.S. crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Islamabad not only wants to attract U.S. exports into Pakistan, but by lowering tariff barriers, it is expected that the U.S. would be anchored in its resource, manufacturing, and energy sectors.

The most conspicuous one is possibly the entry of Pakistan into a joint venture involving cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence with World Liberty Financial. This firm is associated with business affiliates of the Trump family. The venture took co-founder Zachary Witkoff to Islamabad, where he met with top leadership, including the Army Chief of Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir. About the same time, the Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on the newly established Crypto and Blockchain portfolio in Pakistan visited a significant cryptocurrency and AI summit in Las Vegas, which U.S. political and business leaders attended. There, he plotted the benefits of cheap, high-output mining of Bitcoin in Pakistan and how it could be a hub in the region in terms of AI data infrastructure. Such outreach fits with both Trump’s personal and policy interests, as it provides a win-win system whereby Pakistan wins technology transfer and investment by the United States, which wins a partner in the developing digital economies.

The recent trade-related activities point to a tremendous change in the Pakistani strategy. As opposed to using security cooperation as the primary basis of engagement, Islamabad is pitching its case to the U.S. in terms of economic complementarity, strategic resources, and technology cooperation. When maintained, this will have the potential to rebalance the relationship to something less susceptible to the effects of geo-political crises. Nevertheless, to translate these proposals into a lasting structure, high-profile events and announcements will not be enough. The investment environment in Pakistan will be a matter of consideration for American firms, taking into account the level of political uncertainty, macroeconomic instability, and the level of economic interconnections with China because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Washington has remained cautious of the Belt and Road Initiative, and American companies seeking opportunities in Pakistan might need to interact with the infrastructure part of CPEC, which will prompt Islamabad to assure both Beijing and Washington that their interests could be accommodated.

In the case of Pakistan, it would require maintaining credibility during negotiations, upholding the terms of agreements, and providing reforms in governance to make doing business a great opportunity. Further liberalization of imports of U.S. agricultural products and construction equipment, as proposed by some of the officials, can increase trade volumes further, whereas joint energy, mining, and technology ventures can entrench the business of the U.S. within the most strategic geographical spheres of Pakistan, not forgetting the resource-rich but unstable states like Balochistan and Khyber Paktunkhwa. Physical presence of the firms in these regions would not only be a source of economic gains, but it could also elicit further cooperation in the area of counterterrorism since both parties would see their security interest.

The developing dynamic presents a possible meeting point of vision of a futuristic partnership, ISSI, and the preferences of a transactional ISSI, Trump. The institutionalisation of a broad-based economic relationship may assist Pakistan in moving beyond the ad-hoc strategic cooperation and disaffiliation on a recurrent basis. This would involve establishing a permanent economic dialogue structure, e.g., a Pakistan-U.S. Economic and Technology Council that could prioritize, coordinate regulatory efforts, and follow up on common initiatives. It would also require political stability at home since investors and policymakers in the U.S. will hesitate to invest in long-term ventures in a situation of frequent political crises and policy revolutions.

Perhaps the final verdict in all this will be how Pakistan can translate these new trade initiatives, be it the Mineral Investment Forum or cryptocurrency partnership, into actual firm agreements that both parties can measure. Success would thus show that Pakistan has been able to offer the United States economic, technological, and strategic opportunities beyond the limited thinking of a security relationship. As opposed to that, failure would only support the view that Pakistan’s moves are full of ambition but lack commitment. The present time is consequently critical. It is the first time since the U.S. left Afghanistan that a combination of economic demands, the promise of strategic control of resources, and personal diplomacy has had the opportunity to overturn the bilateral relationship. Provided that Pakistan can control its relations with neighbors, Washington will feel less insecure about Pakistan’s links with China, and the commitment made to meet the targets of the trade with Pakistan, the partnership can be much more stable, diversified, and mutually beneficial. The alternative is a reversion to the low normal of limited engagement–a move which would waste the rare confluence of political goodwill and economic interest.

Artificial Intelligence is transforming the landscape of cyber threats worldwide by enabling the creation of deepfakes, autonomous malware, and automated phishing, which outsmart conventional countermeasures. The critical infrastructure in Pakistan, including energy, telecommunications, and finance, is becoming increasingly digitalized and can be compromised through these AI-fueled incursions; however, the defenses have not kept pace. Recent national-level ones, such as PKCERT and NCCIA, are not large-scale and do not incorporate AI. Considering the recent rise of AI-enhanced malware worldwide and the increase in local hacktivist activity levels. Pakistan has to rapidly assess and strengthen its security posture, informed by AI awareness. This paper considers the threat, preparedness gaps, and strategic priorities.

The most critical infrastructure that Pakistan has as the backbone of National Security and economic stability is the energy infrastructure, the finance infrastructure, and the telecommunication infrastructure. The energy industry, including power plants, transmission lines, and oil/gas pipelines, continues to be at a high risk of disruption by cyber activity, which can lead to widespread consequences. Digital payment systems, financial institutions, and central banks are also becoming increasingly digitized, making them more vulnerable to AI-generated fraud and other cyberattacks. The telecom industry, which enables communication and emergency services, is highly susceptible to advanced AI hacks.

Nature of AI-Powered Cyber Threats

Artificial intelligence-enabled cyber threats are developing at an extremely rapid rate and can present a significant risk to the infrastructures of vital importance worldwide. Synthetic media Deepfakes, compelling fake media, are being used in fraud, social engineering, and identity theft. Notably, the former example of a deepfake impersonating a CEO led Arup, an engineering firm, to transfer US$25 million illicitly. Global deepfake fraud has increased to more than US$200 million stolen within three months at the beginning of 2025. Automated attacks are just as harmful: with Microsoft Defender, AI-trained malware can now evade detection roughly 8 percent of the time, thanks to training the model on open-source LLMs. It takes less than 30 minutes to utilize agentic AI before advanced adversaries can organize entire ransomware attacks. A survey conducted by Gartner revealed that 28 percent of companies are exposed to audio AI-based deepfakes, whereas 21 percent of organizations are exposed to video deepfakes.

Vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s Infrastructure: Pakistan lacks adequate infrastructure due to obsolete systems, weak cyber hygiene, and minimal protection against AI attacks.

First, secondhand industrial control systems, or ICS, the usual kind used in energy and water utilities, are exposed to AI augmented malware, which can be used with COTS, such as Windows or SQL. Second, the proliferation of the digital world, with 191 million mobile internet users and ever-increasing IoT applications, makes the attack surface enormous. Third, institutional preparation is behind: PKCERT and NCCIA were established only in 2023 -2024, although there are no extensive compositions on the use of AI in their detection and response. Lastly, the cross-border threats are escalating, including geopolitical hacktivism, like the case of APT36 that attacked the infrastructure of the region.

Pakistan is improving its cyberspace protection activities; however, significant gaps remain in securing itself against AI-based threats. Although the creation of the National Cyber Security Policy 2021 and PKCERT, as well as NCCIA, indicates a significant step in this direction, there are still some problems with obtaining the necessary funds to implement them, acquiring the required technical knowledge, and developing a protocol specific to AI. The most critical areas involve legacy IT systems, which do not utilize real-time monitoring or advanced threat intelligence systems. Additionally, cyber workforce gaps, especially in AI and data science, hinder effective responses. Additionally, there is uneven reporting of incidents and limited communication between the public and private sectors, and this liability has been under-addressed. The regulatory mechanisms overseeing industries such as telecom, finance, or those with concerns related to national security and civil safety are reactive and do not require multiple standards to ensure the level of threat detection and response driven by AI.

Global Lessons and Best Practices

The advanced economies can offer valuable lessons in enhancing Pakistan’s cyber defense capacity in response to threats posed by the use of AI. Countries such as the United States and Israel have incorporated the use of AI-based monitoring and quick response to incidents as part of their national cybersecurity strategies, achieving the ability to detect high-tech attacks in real-time. The European Union applies stringent data security and industry-specific bylaws, which require ongoing risk evaluation and a risk resilience strategy. Cyber Security Agency (CSA), Singapore, is encouraging collaboration (with the private sector) and continuous education (on AI) and simulation nationwide to ensure preparedness. These countries emphasize investing in cybersecurity research, inter-sectoral intelligence exchange, and staff training in AI skills, integrating them into policy and practice. Comparing these strategies to one another, it becomes evident that AI resilience may only be achieved through proactive regulation, strong threat intelligence, and the practical education of the workforce. In the case of Pakistan, a hybrid approach combining regulatory reforms, technical capacity enhancement, and threat sharing, as observed in international precedents, can substantially support national infrastructure and minimize exposure to the risk of Artificial Intelligence-driven attacks.

The key steps that Pakistan should take to address AI-driven cyber threats include investing in modern threat detection, training the next generation of its cybersecurity professionals, and integrating AI tools into its primary infrastructure defense system. This involves enforcing compliance and reporting regulations to ensure real-time monitoring and sharing of data and information across sectors. Cooperation between the public and private sectors, as well as international partnerships, should be encouraged to leverage international threat intelligence and best practices. A stable simulation exercise and enhanced incident reporting will improve national resilience. In the future, AI-integrated, larger-scale policy and educational solutions are the only options that will deliver the stability of infrastructure, national security, and economic stability of Pakistan against AI-based attacks, as threats can constantly change.

Climate change is an extreme shift in the global weather system caused by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrialization. This activity emits green gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, that trap heat in the atmosphere and lead to a rise in the planet’s temperature, commonly referred to as global warming. Despite Pakistan contributing less than 1 percent of the world’s greenhouse emissions, the country has consistently been ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world regarding climate change. The global effects are already extreme, and climatic changes, such as increased temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and radical weather conditions, are leading to social and financial upheaval. To understand why Pakistan suffers so much, it is necessary to examine the country’s peculiarities, the extent of the damage that can be observed, and the need for effective and practical solutions.

The greenhouse effect is a natural process that causes certain gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide and methane, to trap the sun’s heat, ensuring the Earth remains warm enough to support life. However, the fact that humans emit too much greenhouse gas, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels, clearing and destroying forests, and employing unwisely farming practices, has exacerbated this process to an unprecedented level and is causing the world to heat up faster than ever before. Pakistan’s contributions to global emissions are minimal, accounting for a share of less than one percent, or approximately 0.88 percent, of the world’s total emissions. However, due to the high level of deforestation, rapid urbanization, and traditional modes of farming activities in the country, local emissions and environmental stress are on the rise. The connection between global warming and Pakistan’s limited contribution to the problem has serious local impacts on the country, exacerbating already-existing weaknesses, including issues of scarce water, unpredictable weather, and unreliable agricultural systems.

Factors Making Pakistan Highly Vulnerable

Climate change issues are part of Pakistan’s peculiar position, being prone to environmental changes due to geographic, socioeconomic, institutional, and geopolitical factors. Physically, the nation is situated near the Himalayan mountains, which provide over 7,000 glaciers that offer essential water for most agricultural activities and everyday life. There is a rapid glacier melting, coupled with Pakistan having huge arid and semi-arid areas, thus making the country flood-prone as well as prone to droughts. According to socio-economic factors, the poverty level in Pakistan is very high. The primary sector of the economy is agriculture, which still employs approximately 40 percent of the population. It is highly susceptible to temperature fluctuations, rainfall changes, and weather catastrophes. Rapid growth in urban settings places even more pressure on limited resources, resulting in air pollution, overcrowding, and the proliferation of informal settlements. Institutionally, Pakistan’s ability to be adaptable is constrained by its inadequate infrastructure. This complicates the formulation of an adequate response to climate disasters. Water security is always a geopolitical threat, as India has a treaty on water, the Indus Waters Treaty. Water scarcity can be exacerbated by the disturbance or diversion of water flows, especially during times of regional tension, creating an impact on food security. All these linked weaknesses make Pakistan one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change exposures, despite its low emissions.

Impacts of Climate Change in Pakistan

• Pakistan has already warmed up extensively, with the average annual temperature increasing by about 0.5 °C since the 1960s. Estimations show that it will rise further by 1.31.5 C till 2050, which will aggravate heatwaves and put pressure on ecological systems
• Severe weather cases are creating extreme situations that are catastrophic. The 2022 floods displaced more than 33 million people, killed 1,700+ people, and caused USD 30,140 billion in damages. On the contrary, the Karachi and Sindh heatwave in 2015 took the lives of approximately 2,000 people, and high temperatures were up to 49 °C.
• The shortage of water has become a burning issue. The availability of water per head of the population plummeted to about 1,000 m³ in the present day, compared to 5,000 m³ in 1951, drawing Pakistan into the realm of water stress forever.
• There are over 7,000 glaciers in the country that melt at a high rate. This poses a greater risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), especially in northern regions such as Gilgit-Baltistan.
• Punjab also witnessed a close to 20 per cent decline in wheat harvest in 2018, posing a threat to food security, which is stewarded mainly through agriculture, which employs a proportion of the workforce (about 40 per cent).
• Warming, intense weather, shrinking water resources, melting glaciers, and broken agriculture are grim trends that constitute a harsh reality. Pakistan, despite its minor contribution to greenhouse gases, is experiencing severe and interconnected climate effects that endanger the country, its population, and its future.

The effects of climate change are not evenly distributed in Pakistan, as certain areas are particularly hard hit. The regions of Sindh and Balochistan experience major flooding during intense monsoons and persistent droughts, endangering livelihoods in rural areas. In the Northern regions, excessive melting of glaciers has led to a high occurrence of hazardous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which isolate communities and destroy infrastructure in the Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral regions. The Thar Desert is caught in a loop of malnutrition and chronic drought, where there is minimal provision of safe water. In the meantime, more extended periods of intense heat and air pollution are experienced in cities such as Karachi and Lahore, due to the destruction of vegetation and overpopulation. These geographical differences display that climate change in Pakistan is not only an environmental problem, but a truly social and geographical one.

Response So Far: Policies and Projects

Pakistan has made significant contributions to climate change, both through ambitious projects and policy restructuring. The Billion Tree Tsunami initiative effectively planted more than two billion trees, becoming internationally recognized, but also faced criticism related to oversight and transparency. The National Climate Change Policy (2012, revised 2021) and the Pakistan Climate Change Act (2017) were in place to mainstream the element of climate resilience in planning and the establishment of specific climate-related bodies, but they are underfunded and semi-active. At the international level, Pakistan is a member of the Paris Agreement and is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, provided it receives financial and technological assistance from foreign countries. Notwithstanding these measures, the distance between the policy and good practice remains significant.

What Needs to Change?

The climate crisis confronting Pakistan should involve the reinforcement of its climate governance, including sufficient funding and the authority of its climate institutions, as well as coordination at all levels of government. There should be an escalation of renewable energy (particularly, solar and wind) to minimize the reliance on fossil energy. There is an urgent need for effective water management, which involves the construction of small dams, modernization of irrigation systems, and watershed protection. Early warning systems and disaster preparedness should be increased, particularly in high-risk areas. Grassroots adaptation can be achieved by increasing climate education and awareness. Finally, Pakistan must take advantage of international climate finance, which involves accessing sources such as the Green Climate Fund, the IMF, and the World Bank, as a facilitating tool towards its development. Real progress can only be achieved via an integrated, well-funded, and science-led action.

Pakistan occupies a prominent position in the climate crisis, which is being disproportionately impacted by such emissions. The menace is not merely environmental, but also serious in social, economic, and political aspects. Development of resilience entails transitioning to action through effective policy, institutions, at the community level, and across borders. Sustainable planning must be based on science, and more funding, as well as quick and combined action, is required to protect Pakistan’s future. Without these, the country is at risk of further entrenching itself in a vicious cycle of disasters and poverty caused by climate change. It is high time to act and act together.

In May 2025, senior officials and ministers from several Islamic countries met in Tehran for the second OIC-15 Dialogue Platform Ministerial Meeting. At the close of the conference, all countries endorsed a “Tehran Declaration” that described how to use AI for the environment, thoughtfully and for sustainable development. Making this joint statement, the countries officially pledged to apply AI for their societies’ advantage and started planning new collaborations in technology and innovation. Participants from the OIC-15 member countries at the 2nd Ministerial Meeting of the OIC-15 Dialogue Platform in Tehran in May 2025 adopted a joint declaration on AI cooperation. Held using the theme “Trustworthy and Ethical Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Development,” the high-level gathering included participants from places such as Brunei, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey and Qatar. Many nations from Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa used the meeting to explain how they can use AI to achieve progress for everyone.

Key Pillars of AI Cooperation

The Tehran Declaration provides a detailed plan for how member states can collaborate in AI. It points out important areas for cooperation: advancing education in AI, increasing the number of AI professionals, strengthening teamwork in research and development, updating AI systems and networks, making sure there are strong rules and principles, and sharing information and technology. Each main theme is essential to creating a healthy, responsible AI ecosystem among the countries involved. The Trump administration sees developing human capital as a main goal of the plan. The government designed programs focused on AI to ensure their citizens are trained for a future with AI. This means upgrading teaching materials, aiding the start of new courses and certificates in AI and providing education resources to multiple countries. By focusing on people, OIC-15 countries want to support the development of professionals who can use AI to solve problems in their regions.

Promoting joint research and innovation is central to the key points in the declaration. They intend to partner in research on AI by forming groups of research centres and projects that connect researchers and use each country’s resources. Collaborating on AI, for example, to find answers in agriculture and healthcare, allows member states to reach important discoveries faster than by acting separately. The declaration aims to promote sharing practical knowledge and research data between researchers, which helps all involved learn from each other.

The need to improve the infrastructure for AI is also underlined. Many OIC countries want the right technology and facilities to support AI projects. The statement from the meeting in Tehran advises leaders to invest in infrastructure and encourage the development of technology hubs and incubators. It also points out that talent mobility matters: experts, researchers and students should be able to go to other countries through fellowships and internships, helping to share their skills and knowledge where necessary. It also stresses that cooperation between the government and private sectors and entrepreneurship helps develop a healthy AI sector. Since governments cannot do it alone, OIC-15 members decided to join forces with industry and academia. The plan includes funding startup AI labs, organising shared training programs and holding online forums to highlight innovative AI solutions throughout Europe. With both entrepreneurial support and good policy in place, the countries want to change research findings into developments that help their economies and their people.

All these actions are also supported by strong governance and ethical rules for artificial intelligence. The theme of “trustworthy and ethical AI” is displayed in the planned approach to develop common rules and guidelines for using AI. To do this, AI applications are safely delivered, protected from bias or misuse, and developed based on shared ethical guidelines. The OIC-15 nations are focusing on ethics and governance to ensure AI enjoys public trust now and in the future, as it helps drive sustainable development.

AI for Shared Challenges and Sustainable Development

Islamic countries are working together mainly because they all deal with critical challenges which AI could play a big role in solving. According to the Declaration, efforts will be collaborative to support climate adaptation, continue improvements in healthcare, ensure food availability and manage water. They are urgent problems: for example, in many member states, people are running out of water, have trouble growing crops, require better public health and are facing more extreme weather because of climate change. Because they combine their resources, AI expertise and computing power, the member states in the OIC-15 think they can improve things like climate forecasting, water management, health diagnostics and telemedicine to solve problems more effectively than each country could do alone. There is hope that people from different cities will benefit from this united project. Because community members work together, the less experienced can use their neighbours’ knowledge to build skills and make the digital divide less difficult. It also supports OIC-15 in staying up-to-date with the progress of AI worldwide. So, instead of doing each project independently, countries may work together, share solutions and choose common goals to tackle together. It greatly speeds up new ideas in AI and checks that the region benefits from applying them.

Critics and supporters say the Tehran Declaration has set a major target for Muslim countries to move forward with a united approach to technology. If the OIC-15 countries combine their knowledge, talents and resources, they will jointly perform better than individuals could. With AI transforming economies and societies, such cooperation will allow the Islamic world to increase its strength and create new solutions, instead of simply using foreign technology. The idea of trust and ethics supports growth for everyone, which is why members can work together on emerging technologies and guide development that helps all member states..

Since early May 2025, the two nuclear-armed neighbours have traded unprecedented missile and drone strikes, symbolically the deepest escalation in decades. Pakistan has always wished the conflict would end peacefully, ensuring its territorial integrity is respected. At the same time, official declarations state that a strong but calibrated response will meet any infringement of its sovereignty. In a coordinated air assault on May 7, 24 precision missile targets hit six districts in Pakistan’s Punjab province and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Referring to the DG ISPR, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, the overnight strikes devastated residential neighbourhoods and mosques and vital infrastructure, especially killing 26 civilians and wounding 46 of them, the injured women and children, a DGISPR statement said. The most deadly incidents were in Ahmedpur Sharqia close to Bahawalpur, where a mosque compound had been targeted, killing five, including a three-year-old girl, and in Muzaffarabad and Kotli, where two historic mosque structures had been razed to the ground.

Later on-ground evaluations updated the civilian death toll to 31 deceased and more than 50 injured, thereby revealing the human price of destroying populated areas. Pakistan’s air defences targeted the attackers and boasted of shooting down five enemy planes, an unconfirmed action by the opposing air force. The barrage severed electricity to four major power substations. It damaged two water treatment facilities, and thousands of households nationwide had their lights off and access to clean drinking water for over 24 hours. Pakistan closed its airspace for 48 hours and grounded all civil flights at Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad airports. This action was announced by the Civil Aviation Authority under Section 144 of the Criminal Procedure Code and was suspended until noon on May 9. Airports on either side of the border were also limiting, a manifestation of a consensus between both governments on the issue of civilian safety and the general economic consequences of the cessation of air traffic.

At the same time, Pakistan launched a massive drone incursion, downing and destroying 77 drone Harop “suicide” (Israeli-made) drones allegedly fired to reconnoitre and attack civilian and military sites. The intact recovered wreckage with the manufacturer markings intact. Reaffirms Pakistan’s capability to destroy advanced loitering munitions high in the sky and out of range of common anti-aircraft guns. To protect high-density zones, the government banned all drone flights in Abbottabad for two months based on Section 144 of the Criminal Procedure Code, given increased security risks and the possibility of aerial surveillance of enemies. Pakistan had commenced precision strikes against 26 declared targets in northern India on the banner/flag of “Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos” on 10 May. They also included vital airbases at Pathankot, Srinagar, and Udhampur, which were crucial to Pakistan’s military claims. The operation was explained as “swift and calibrated” targeting only confirmed military assets to cause no unnecessary civilian harm.

International actors have flocked to defuse tensions. On 9 May, the U.S. Secretary of State met with Pakistani military leaders and Indian counterparts separately, encouraged them to pursue de-escalation strategies, and offered U.S. support to enable constructive talks. During a recent visit to Islamabad, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs also demanded restraint and a peaceful dialogue on international law. China, the EU and the UN Secretary-General have also pressed both capitals to return immediately to the diplomatic world, warning that additional military exchanges may have unpredictable and broad repercussions.

All through these developments, the Pakistani officials have echoed the same message: the country remains committed to peace on the understanding that its sovereignty and territorial integrity are properly respected. Concurrently, senior government spokespeople have emphasised that Pakistan has the authority under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter to retaliate, “at the time and the place of its choosing”; thus conveying a sense of (grownly) restrained deterrence rather than unbridled escalation. Government communiqués reinforce that diplomatic channels function normally with the existing military hotlines and national security adviser offices. There have been numerous meetings between the sides at the highest levels, with foreign counterparts willing to act as a broker. Domestically, a unanimous parliamentary declaration backed the armed forces’ right to defend national honour while demanding an immediate ceasefire. International allies such as the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and regional states have saluted Pakistan’s measured response. They are urging both parties to get back to the negotiating table. As each side draws back from the brink, Pakistan continues to nail two imperatives: shielding its citizens and resources from surprise attacks while offering India a hand of peace in a ceasefire and renewed negotiations. With regional stability on the line, Islamabad exhorts New Delhi to return the favour by de-escalating in good faith, thus paving the way for lasting peace and cooperative relations in the South Asia region, a result consistent with Pakistan’s higher-order strategic interests.

Introduction

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) represents a historical example of international cooperation since its establishment in 1960 through World Bank mediation between India and Pakistan. The treaty between India and Pakistan mediated by World Bank divided the Indus River waters between both countries to create peaceful conditions within a context of historical political conflicts. This agreement has encountered its first major crisis during recent times. The terrorist attack in Pahalgam during April 2025 triggered India to pull out from the treaty which resulted in the rapid decline of relations between the two countries. The Pakistani government views this action as an aggressive violation which could trigger serious adverse effects when India interferes with its river water entitlements.

The roots of the Indus water dispute trace back to the partition of British India in 1947. After partition India obtained authority of the rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej while Pakistan received control of the rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. The construction of eastern river dams by India created escalating tensions for Pakistan because it led to severe water shortages. The Standstill Agreement of 1948 maintained the existing water sharing status before its expiration in 1951 so a permanent solution was necessary. The IWT agreement took nine years to finalize before receiving its signature during 1960. The IWT divided the rivers between India and Pakistan by giving eastern rivers to India while Pakistan retained western rivers but enabled India to perform limited power generation operations on these rivers. The World Bank functioned as the main facilitator of the agreement that continues to endure various disputes between Pakistan and India.

A terrorist action in Pahalgam, Kashmir during April 2025 killed twenty-six people where twenty-five were Indian citizens and one was Nepalese. The Indian government blamed Pakistan-based militants for carrying out the attack so India cut off its participation in the IWT in response. India terminated the Indus Waters Treaty after asserting that sustained cross-border terrorism alongside essential changes in the situation necessitated this response. The government of Pakistan firmly opposed the move since it warned about treating water rights infringements as “an act of war.” Both countries exchanged multiple retaliatory actions after this crisis developed which brought border closings along with removing diplomatic personnel followed by trade suspension and airspace restrictions.

Consequences for Pakistan
Agriculture:

Approximately 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land relies on water from the Indus River system. The suspension of the IWT threatens the irrigation of vast agricultural areas, potentially leading to crop failures and food shortages.

Energy Sector:

Pakistan’s hydropower generation is heavily dependent on the western rivers. Disruption in water flow could lead to power shortages, affecting industries and daily life.

Economic Impact:

The agricultural and energy sectors are vital to Pakistan’s economy. Any disruption could lead to significant economic losses, increased unemployment, and social unrest.

Environmental Concerns:

Reduced water availability could lead to environmental degradation, including the drying up of wetlands and loss of biodiversity.

The Role of International Law

International law sets out different methods to oversee shared water resources between nations. The 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses contains principles for equitable and reasonable utilization and no harm and cooperation. The signed IWT demonstrates actual implementation of established international principles. When India unilaterally put the IWT on hold it sparked doubts regarding the compliance of international legal standards. These conduct challenges the credibility of United Nations’ treaties and establishes unhealthy practices for managing collective resources. Nations must use existing legal frameworks to start peaceful discussions because further escalation can be prevented by establishing resolution methods.

India and Pakistan have maintained a foundational accord of peace through cooperation regarding the Indus Waters Treaty since its establishment sixty years ago. The decision to suspend the treaty poses multiple risks which endanger both countries bilateral relationship as well as regional political stability. Both countries need to preserve their international legal obligations because they must find peaceful solutions. The protection of shared water resources requires international communities to perform active duties in order to help foster negotiations.

In April 2025, Pakistan recently experienced one of the biggest transformations in international trading policies worldwide. During his second presidential term, President Donald Trump introduced drastic “reciprocal” tariffs against both friendly and unfriendly countries to the United States. Higher duties exceeding 29-39% were imposed on Pakistan by the United States as different markets, including China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, received even more severe tariffs, triggering widespread business alarms during that time in Pakistan’s export sector. The trade protection measures worked reversely to benefit the Pakistani economy because they may open export possibilities for Pakistan in the American market. The current condition of Pakistan’s trade is examined by combining research from think tanks with government statements alongside industry specialist insights that indicate future near-term economic losses will coexist alongside unexpected market benefits. Pakistan’s capacity to succeed within this emerging environment will rely on powerful negotiations, strengthening domestic institutions, and properly identifying available strategic opportunities.

The 2025 Tariff Shock

The Trump administration implemented excessive import tariffs on countries worldwide starting April 2nd, 2025. The tariffs Pakistan faces amount to 29–39 percent, while partner developing countries face greater challenges with duties of 39 percent from Bangladesh, 46 percent from Vietnam, and up to 125 percent from China. The Trump administration imposed these tariffs for multiple reasons, including America’s goal of decreasing its trade deficit, increasing domestic manufacturing, and pressuring countries that benefit significantly from American market openness. Stock exchange investors panicked about export revenue reduction from new duties, which caused Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) markets to drop over 2,600 points almost immediately after the tariffs were declared. The textile industry stands at high risk due to its dominant role in Pakistani exports, which constitute 77 percent of total United States imports. At a time when President Trump introduced the 90-day pause for consideration, he pointed to positive diplomatic relations between governments. The brief pause granted by President Trump allowed the PSX to partially recover its losses and restart examinations about converting the economic crisis into business opportunities for Pakistan.

Forecasts and Potential Export Losses

The short-term benefits of the tariff pause warn economic experts about future adverse financial effects on Pakistan. Research from Lahore School of Economics (LSE) indicates Pakistan will lose between 4.2 billion dollars in export revenue, while forecasts show 0.8 billion dollars in lost sales predicted soon after 2024–25. A different think tank called Tabadlab states that Pakistan’s economy would suffer a 564 million-dollar financial strike in 2025–26 following the complete enforcement of these tariffs. However, they estimate the economy could experience a loss exceeding 2 billion dollars in an extreme scenario of Pakistan surrendering market share and enduring declining world demand. The immediate threat from American tariffs is amplified by an analyst prediction that the global economic downturn is driven by mounting trade barriers across major economies, particularly China. International income reduction by one percent corresponds to an estimated 1.445 percent decrease in Pakistani exports to foreign markets because American buyers exhibit price sensitivity.

Trade Diversion: A Surprising Silver Lining

The 2025 tariff wave introduces opportunities that may lead to advantages for Pakistan despite being unfavorable for export businesses. The United States is expected to shift its import orders from China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh to Pakistan because the Pakistani suppliers face lower customs charges of 29–39 percent compared to 39 percent for Bangladesh and 46 percent for Vietnam, and the 125 percent duty on Chinese products.
The market transformation is likely to impact the textile industry strongly due to China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam’s leading manufacturing positions in global apparel production. Pakistani producers are still attractive to American retailers and brands after price increases from high tariffs because their products remain affordable. Pakistani exporters can gain market share by striking while U.S.-levied prices remain high. The Diplomat revealed that clothing from China costs more in the U.S. than Pakistani clothing products at present. Additional duties will expand the price difference between competing manufacturers, leading to increased Pakistani factory orders. The government and the private sector can accomplish joint effectiveness, yielding specific product line benefits despite existing tariffs.

Government Response and Negotiations

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif brought together high-level authorities as soon as the tariffs were announced. Officials from Pakistan planned to send a strong delegation to Washington to reach better terms in the negotiations. The amount of products Pakistan imports from the U.S. in 2024 stands at 1.87 billion dollars, which provides Islamabad with limited possibilities for applying matching tariff policies. The low American market presence within Pakistan’s top five import segments restricts the possibility of “tit-for-tat” tax measures.
Despite the ongoing talks with Washington, the low levels of existing Pakistani tariffs for American products form the core basis for Islamabad’s position to reject protectionist accusations. The current high import tariffs between 29–39 percent endanger Pakistan-U.S. economic relations, which historically have had a mutually beneficial impact. The negotiations gain further weight because U.S. firms are interested in Pakistan’s valuable mineral resources. Balochistan’s copper and gold deposits and critical mineral resources across northern Pakistan present new avenues of collaboration. Pakistan could gain better trade terms through diplomatic collaboration when demonstrating its willingness to invite U.S. mining investment in its mineral sector.

Sectoral Impact: Textiles in the Crosshairs

Pakistan’s export economy depends fundamentally on textile production. A 29–39% duty increase on Pakistani textile exports to America would raise their prices to the extent that local manufacturers would lose their historic cost competitiveness. The price advantage of Pakistani products over Vietnamese and Bangladeshi ones diminishes according to the level of their cost-sharing with domestic companies for new tariffs. Analysts predict that when exporters choose to distribute 19-29 percent of increased costs to U.S. buyers, their first-year export decline could amount to between 0.4 and 0.6 billion dollars rather than the more dire estimates of 0.8 billion dollars or more. The careful equilibrium demonstrates why prices need negotiation along with supply chain optimization.

Leveraging Critical Minerals and Diversification

Textile industries receive heavy attention, but industry experts believe Pakistan should abandon traditional clothing production. The chemicals sector, alongside pharmaceuticals, sporting goods, and food exports, currently plays a significant role, presenting opportunities for growth in the U.S. market to decrease the risks of depending heavily on textile exports. Dictated by U.S. officials is their desire to access vital minerals from Pakistan, such as copper, lithium, and rare earth elements. The systematic exploitation of mineral resources through collaborations with U.S. companies presents Islamabad with an opportunity to increase export variety. This strategy will attract foreign direct investment and minimize the threat tariffs imposed on any particular product group, such as textiles, would pose to overall trade.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Prospects

The stability of Pakistan’s trade sector demands existence beyond luck and bargaining expertise. The competitiveness of Pakistani exports depends on exporters meeting standards for product quality while delivering on time at affordable costs, regardless of rising tariffs. The industrial sector requires state backing through reduced energy expenses, speedy customs operations, and special export encouragement. The following months dedicated to discussions with U.S. officials will serve as a decisive period. Pakistani officials can establish a sustainable trade agreement through careful communication aboutPakistan’s export vulnerabilities and the successful invention of new economic opportunities including mineral industry participation and enhanced U.S. product entry. Most analysts concur that Pakistan is highly competitive compared to its Asian competitors when measuring U.S. tariff levels, specifically for China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. The ongoing trade stoppage creates an essential moment for Pakistan to develop long-term exporting prospects with the United States, although this pathway faces substantial obstacles.

The Pakistani economic situation changed dramatically through various events during a short period while presenting opportunities and dangers for the economy. When the U.S. imposed tariff hikes of 29–39 percent, it appeared that the action would result in billions of dollars lost through exports, especially in textiles and apparel markets. The harsher punishments imposed against competitors from the region will lead American orders to redirect toward Pakistani facilities if the government and exporters execute their strategies effectively. The 2025 tariff turmoil is a turning point while acting as a crisis scenario. Pakistan can protect its trade interests through improved diplomatic relations, expanding its export base, and attracting U.S. investments in strategic minerals. Pakistan’s commercial development may reach a revolutionary phase through trade negotiations and successfully transitioning competitive pressures into substantial advantages. Pakistan’s fate depends on the outcome of its diplomatic response, as this decision will influence economic conditions throughout the forthcoming years.

Pakistan’s Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) has been changed, which has started a new conversation about digital rights, freedom of speech, and the government’s ability to control what happens in virtual places. Many people in Pakistan and around the world are worried about these changes to the law because the government plans to use them to stop spreading false information. Under PECA 2025, Pakistan’s hacking laws will change in important ways. Distributing “fake and false information” while working under the watch of the central regulatory body could lead to arrest, up to three years in prison, and fines. There are worries about fairness and due process in Pakistan’s digital space, as well as the future of social media supervision, if there was a single governing body like this.

A Turning Point in Pakistan’s Digital Governance

Because of how quickly society is becoming digitalised, governments all over the world have promised to make their rules against cybercrime stronger. The latest move by Pakistan is part of a global trend where countries try to control social media platforms and the stories they make up. The most recent changes to PECA are Pakistan’s biggest shift in governance. Instead of focussing on traditional cybercrime enforcement, the country is now controlling material and censoring it through state-led methods. The broad meanings of “fake news,” “propaganda,” and “false information” make it very likely that authorities will use them inarbitrary ways. Tougher definitions would stop people from abusing these laws, which lets the government shut down people who question the system and control social media conversations, isolating independent views. Pakistan has always depended on the media, civil society, and the courts to protect the public’s right to free speech. This situation is worrying because of this.
The main change to the structure is the creation of an authority with broad powers to block and remove material from the internet. With lightning speed, the authority is in charge of both looking into content breaches and making decisions in 24-hour tribunals. Rapid digital regulation is needed to make things run more smoothly, but it needs to be used carefully to avoid things like child abuse and direct calls to violence. Also, the short deadlines could threaten basic process checks and balances. The limited appeals process to higher courts is helpful, but the quickly growing number of cases that need to be looked at could overwhelm the courts’ ability to handle them. Still, these quick decisions made by an authority group that could be controlled hurt both the principle of judicial independence and the principle of content neutrality.

Why This Matters

The amendments create profound consequences which extend past official corridors of law and politics. Online content generators and digital businesses and media organizations need established legislative parameters to conduct their operations in modern economic environments. Vague laws with expansive regulations create an environment of self-censorship which triggers businesses and individuals to regulate their expression as well as control their creativity to stay clear of legal trouble. Pakistan stands to face international consequences because of its present regulatory situation. Any degradation of digital rights within Pakistan may trigger closer evaluation from international stakeholders since the country joined the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) agreement which promotes human rights and democratic principles. The implementation of limiting digital regulations poses risks to attract foreign direct investment specifically in sectors that need transparency in both information-sharing and operational practices.

Mirroring Global Trends

• The dispute between digital governance and civil liberties exists as a common challenge for other nations in addition to Pakistan. Several nations from the Western Hemisphere together with various Global South states have initiated new legislation to defend against misinformation and control social media networks.
• The government of India enjoys powers under their IT Rules to order social media companies to erase objectionable content and penalize them criminally when they fail to comply. A similar criticism exists regarding these regulations because they provide unclear definitions which enable government authorities to potentially silence dissent.
• The Turkish government implemented new internet laws that make “disinformation” distribution punishable by three years of imprisonment time. Experts have identified Turkish legislation as an electoral time tool for expanding state media management authority.
• Russia built filtering capabilities through its “Sovereign Internet” law to control online content with public security and national defense as the basic foundation.
• Similar legislative measures are underway by Western democratic governments as well. Two pieces of legislation demonstrate legislative attempts to make platforms responsible for harmful content: the United Kingdom’s Online Safety Act and Germany’s NetzDG. Multiple experts criticize Pakistan’s PECA amendments due to their lack of transparency alongside judicial controls and precise definitions of criminal content which these existing frameworks typically provide.
While governments worldwide have legitimate concerns regarding the harmful impacts of fake news, cyberbullying, and digital extremism, the solution lies in designing legislation that upholds international human rights standards. This includes ensuring:
• Clear and narrow definitions of criminalized content.
• Independent oversight bodies, free from executive influence.
• Transparent mechanisms for content moderation and appeals.
• Safeguards for press freedom and free expression, even in the face of misinformation challenges.
If regulations keep growing without limits, Pakistan could become a “surveillance-first” state where political goals, not legal ones, determine what people can and can’t do online. People’s conversations in public would be very different because of these changes, which would have big effects on society as a whole. Because of the way business works, companies that work with digital marketing, media production, or tech innovation have to deal with a legal situation that requires them to constantly check their content to make sure it’s legal. It looks like the rules are hard to predict and follow for foreign businesses, which makes people less confident in Pakistan’s digital economy. In Pakistan, the PECA 2025 reforms are a major change in how the government controls digital space. While the passage calls for changes to the law and says that society should be protected against false information, it also raises major concerns about the loss of digital rights, freedom of speech, and the rule of law. Other countries and Pakistan need to find a good balance that protects freedom and security while upholding the democratic ideals that are needed for a strong information environment. Different countries around the world should take a look at how Pakistan controls fake news, because if there isn’t enough oversight, well-meaning safety measures can turn into tools that restrict free speech and democracy.

1. Introduction

Energy-shortage solution through the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline project underwent historical shifts from its strategic beginnings to become an intricate geopolitical matter plagued with economic limitations and legal complications. Pakistan struggles daily with increasing energy requirements also requiring greater LNG imports which the pipeline presents as an economical pipeline solution for affordable continuous gas delivery. The United States’ sanctions against Iranian energy operations halted the project thus stranding Pakistan between its economic requirements and diplomatic responsibilities. Iran finished building its pipeline section even though Pakistan needs to pay an $18 billion legal fine for missing deadlines. Pakistan must now determine whether its staff will secure sanctions waivers from the new US administration to continue with the project because Pakistan stands at risk of geopolitical conflict. This article evaluates the economic and political aspects of the pipeline while examining Pakistan’s strategic opportunities during its high-stakes energy confrontation.

The governments of Iran and Pakistan established an accord during 2009 to construct a 2,775-kilometer gas pipeline which would deliver fuel energy to Pakistan. The energy agreement between Pakistan and Iran aimed to solve Pakistan’s energy emergency by offering less expensive and steady natural gas supplies. The Iranian investment of $2 billion led to completion of their pipeline part in 2014 yet Pakistan has failed to commence its section work due to US sanctions affecting Iran’s energy sector. Due to these strict sanctions Pakistan finds itself unable to obtain international support or develop further projects as economic sanctions from the US remain a significant threat. During 2009 India withdrew from the project because of United States political pressure and selected to establish energy relations with both the United States and Gulf nation states instead. Pakistan faces a difficult situation due to its need for Iranian gas but its worries about US financial punishments against the project.

Pakistan’s Energy Crisis: Why the Pipeline is Essential

The energy crisis in Pakistan is severe since its gas production remains at 4 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day) while the demand averages between 6 to 8 bcfd. The deficient supply of gas causes severe consequences for both manufacturing industries and residential areas and business operations which results in continuous power outages and slower economic development. The purchase of expensive Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from Qatar combined with UAE proves unstable for Pakistan because of its high acquisition costs along with limited pipeline infrastructure. The two LNG terminals established in Karachi during 2015 and 2017 are unable to keep pace with rising market demand which has rendered Pakistan vulnerable to changes in global LNG prices and supply delivery interruptions. Iranian gas provides more budget-friendly and reliable energy supply to consumers since direct pipeline transportation eliminates the need for expensive LNG shipping by water. US sanctions on Iran prevent Pakistan from finishing the pipeline thus the nation remains compelled to pay high import prices. Pakistan faces an energy challenge because the nation stays trapped in an energy crisis which forces increased gas costs as it battles to fulfill rising energy requirements without adequate strategic solutions.

US Sanctions & Geopolitical Challenges

Under its “Maximum Pressure” stance towards Iran the United States actively challenges the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. The USA established secondary sanctions that threaten countries and companies working in the Iran energy sector with economic consequences. The project suffers from a blockade because Pakistan lacks access to financial support from international banks and global payment systems. The diplomatic situation for Pakistan has become complex because it needs energy yet faces international pressure from U.S. actions. Despite their strong relations with the United States Pakistan still requires Iranian gas to resolve its current energy problems. Moving forward with the pipeline could lead Pakistan to face US sanctions but abandoning the project requires Iran to take legal action. Experts predict that Chinese financial support would enable Pakistan to avoid US economic restrictions. Through its extensive investments under CPEC China has established Gwadar port as a potential substitute for Pakistan. Any involvement from China would risk intensifying US sanctions against Pakistan which would require the country to decide between energy security and maintaining its present international relationships. The pipeline presents a complicated geopolitical problem for Pakistan because of its nature.
Pakistan faces severe legal and financial complications from postponements of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. The International Court of Arbitration now considers an Iranian legal action against Pakistan for non-completion of the pipeline and seeks payment as stated in the contract. A favorable court decision for Iran could push Pakistan to face an $18 billion financial obligation which would exhaust its weak economy and depleted foreign reserves. The energy sector suffers from financial mismanagement along with corruption problems while enduring the legal difficulties in Pakistan. Pipeline materials valued at Rs380 million have been stolen according to reports as OGDCL (Oil & Gas Development Company Limited) delayed payments and gas development fund mismanagement intensified inefficiency throughout the sector. Pakistan has aging pipelines which are deteriorating in their current state. The government does not support pipeline pressure relief through facility improvements nor does it address inefficient gas transmission equipment. In spite of rising fuel requirements Pakistan has received limited funding for prolonged energy solutions. Decision-making delays pose significant threats to Pakistan’s financial stability and energy security because they endanger the country against legal repercussions while creating substantial gas deficiency within upcoming years.

Possible Solutions & Recommendations

• To face the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline obstacles Pakistan needs to create a comprehensive plan which handles political problems as well as financial needs and operational drawbacks. The government of Pakistan should approach the new US administration for energy-based exceptions to current sanctions. Government officials should establish the pipeline’s vital importance to resolve Pakistan’s critical energy emergency instead of presenting it as a political initiative. The government of Pakistan should request exemptions from US sanctions for essential projects that build vital infrastructure.
• Pakistan should pursue banking support from Russia besides considering financial alternatives within China. AIIB and BRICS Bank as two options emerging from China and Russia represent viable alternatives to finance the project after Western institutions refused the project because of sanctions. Pakistan has received past investments from these creditors for its energy sector which makes them convincing financial partners.
• To reduce dependency on a single energy supply Pakistan needs multiple sources of energy. Growing Russian LNG trade and establishing new wind turbines and solar and hydroelectric power facilities can construct an energetic blend.
• As a necessary step toward energy sector improvement Pakistan needs to control corruption and reduce operational inefficiencies. Effective transparency and strict embezzlement enforcement within Pakistan’s projects will protect investments so the energy sector becomes reliable and financially robust for lasting benefits.

Pakistan’s energy security depends critically on the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project which continues to face political obstacles from geopolitical tensions. The pipeline offers Pakistan affordable and stable gas energy but US economic restrictions prevent its development thus forcing Pakistan to choose between economic needs and international pressure. The ongoing energy emergency in Pakistan demands quick answers but proceeding with the pipeline construction would be problematic because it could lead to major political and monetary problems. Pakistan requires an exact combination of diplomatic negotiations with US authorities alongside Chinese and Russian financing alternatives and additional power resource exploration to adequately tackle current and future economic vulnerabilities. The lack of prompt action from Pakistan will result in multi-billion-dollar penalties from Iran as well as damage its bilateral relationship with the United States. Pakistan faces a decisive period ahead that will decide its ability to obtain an exemption to finish the project or if the pipeline will stay an unsatisfied energy dream.