Saudi King, Muhammad Bin Salman has recently visited Turkey and met the Turkish president Tayyip Urdogan. This step has been taken to fully normalize the ties between the two countries which were not so normal since 2018 though Turkey has had deep-rooted historical and cultural ties with Saudi Arabia ever since. It has been emphasized during the talks that the two nations are determined to enter a new era of cooperation in their bilateral relations. According to the Turkish official, there are no longer any trade, travel, or TV series screening prohibitions between the two nations, and adverse media coverage between them has also ended.

According to a new agreement, the two sides also proposed expanding their trade relations and cooperation in a variety of areas, particularly tourism, energy, and the defense industry. Ankara urged Saudi investment funds to make Turkish startups. A falling lira and inflation that has climbed above seventy percent have significantly strained Turkey’s economy. On the other hand, Prince Mohammed has been utilizing Saudi Arabia’s wealth and capacity to make oil to mitigate criticism of the country’s record on human rights. Turkish businessmen and government leaders expected the visit would release at least $3 billion in investment projects that Saudi Arabia had planned to in recent years but that haven’t yet been implemented.

This reorientation of the new partnership will be significant for the Muslim states as well in a way that, both the states have called for an effort to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital in accordance with international agreements and the Arab peace initiative. This shows that the effects of the normalization of the ties between two will be on Israel as well. Reconciliation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia is likely to restore a crucial economic link. This will also get Turkey out of the regional isolation. Saudi Arabia’s new investments in Turkey could lead Turkish products to enter the kingdom freely, and Riyadh may engage in currency exchanges with Ankara with other Gulf States. This partnership is expected to improve the military and economic diplomatic relations between the two states.

Afghanistan, a country which was already going through a lot has recently faced another crisis, earthquake. The biggest obstacle the Taliban have faced since seizing control nearly a year ago is a devastating earthquake in eastern Afghanistan that killed at least 1,000 people and destroyed homes in rural areas. The Taliban regime is in charge of an impoverished nation where the impacts of decades of war are still apparently felt and where there is a terrible drought, widespread hunger, and an economic catastrophe. Now, the earthquake has worsen the situation and has increased the chances of revealing the shortcomings of a government that is mostly no relations from the outside world and severely short on funds and resources.

While humanitarian aid is still being supplied, when the Taliban overtook Kabul last August, extended aid money was suspended. As the West pushes for concessions on human rights, notably for children and women, it has further enraged the Taliban by holding billions of dollars in Afghan reserves frozen abroad. The withdrawal of crucial development funding has devastated Afghanistan’s health sector over the past nine months. Taliban isolation limits Afghan response to earthquake. Pakistan, being a neighboring country has sent its assistance to Afghanistan but that is not enough for such a big disaster. To help the earthquake victims in Afghanistan’s war-torn province, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government had sent medical teams as well.

Adnan Junaid, IRC vice president for Asia also stated that there is a need for an international community to develop a plan outlining methods for resuming economic assistance, offering the central bank direct help, and ultimately freeing Afghanistan’s foreign currency reserves because the innocent population is suffering. There are major humanitarian crisis going on which needs to be settle down. The United Nations and international humanitarian groups should expand to meet their growing needs for the sake of humanity.

It would not be wrong to see Israel-Palestine conflict as Israel’s illegal occupation in Palestine. Israel has been breaching international law by opting to extend its occupation by building settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory. This occupation has left Palestinians with no civic horizon. The systematic oppression of one racial-national-ethnic group over another sustains the persistent Israeli occupation, which has now become an apartheid practice. It involves the major human rights violations and crimes against humanity apart from the ethno-religious and national element. It is not only about the specific ethnic group but, it is about humanity now.

During the 1967 Arab-Israeli conflict, Israel captured East Jerusalem, including Al-Aqsa. In 1980, it annexed the entire city and this move has never been acknowledged by the international community. The violence against Palestinian Muslims has escalated in the past few months. Since 2014, the number of Palestinians killed in disputes with Israelis over the occupation reached an all-time high last year. In fact, the number of Palestinian children killed by Israeli terrorism in 2021 was the highest. Similarly, the attacks on Mosque Al-Aqsa continued in the holy month of Ramadan even this year. The protests took place in many countries around the world against the Israel’s violations and it resulted in the temporary ceasefire. The violence continued but the media coverage of the Israel’s violations did stop. Media plays a very important role in this conflict. Media can help de-escalating the conflict by doing conflict sensitive reporting but perhaps it has failed to do so in terms of this conflict.

‘’Ending the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory, and discrimination against Palestinians is essential to stopping the decades-long conflict between the two sides.’’ A new UN independent human rights body recently said. These words are not enough but there is a need of taking action which United Nation has not taken any yet. There is no humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza even. The israel-Palestine conflict leaves a big question mark on the credibility of the institutions like U.N. It is evident that Israel has no intention of ending the occupation. The world needs to give Palestinians a right of self-determination. To deter Israeli aggression and safeguard the life of Palestinian civilians, an international protection structure must be formed. There must be accountability for Israel’s violations of international humanitarian and human rights law.

The most significant source of conflict between the US and China is Taiwan. Biden has stated on multiple occasions that the US would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan if Beijing launched an invasion. In recent years, China has increased its military presence near Taiwan. Since the President Joe Biden held the office, it is for the first time that the military leaders, General Wei Fenghe Chinese Minister of National Defense and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met to talk about the Taiwan conflict at “Shangri-La Dialogue” held in Singapore from 10th-12th June 2022. In a statement released by Pentagon it is said that the two leaders discussed ties and regional security challenges, including North Korea’s nuclear programs and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Concerning the Ukraine crisis, Wei stated that China adheres to the principles of impartiality and fairness at all times and is working to promote peace and dialogue. If someone tries to use the Ukraine conflict to undermine China’s interests, China will respond with countermeasures. The officials of both the countries met before for a meeting in March 2022, where US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warns Chinese Foreign Minister Yang that China will have to suffer severe consequences, if China provides Russia with military or other assistance. China rejected accusations which are being spread by the US media that Moscow had asked for arms and financial assistance.

China claims democratic and self-governing Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to annex it by force if needed. There are several points of contention exist between the two sides. Beijing’s claims to nearly the whole South China Sea, as well as its recent military show of power towards Taiwan and military might in Asia, have raised alarmed for the United States. Although the Biden administration has repeated the United States’ long-held “one China” policy, it has signaled it will defend Taiwan militarily if China acts. As China’s military has grown to become the world’s second-largest, with a fleet that matches America’s in size, and Beijing is not so happy with the US military presence across Asia, this is the reason that the potential of confrontation has increased. This is why, it is being said that as the rivalry and concerns are growing between the two countries, any miscalculation might lead to a serious crisis.

China has remained consistent over the stance that it wants “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan. Also, both the countries are reluctant to indulge into a costly military conflict as they cannot afford it being major powers of the world. There is a need that countries in the region, including ASEAN members, ought to assume their due part and mutually create alliances to keep up with harmony in South China for the resolution of the contention, security, and stability of the region. Shangri-La Dialogue is a positive sign, as it implied that the two sides are willing to sit down and talk it out and come to a consensus and it can only be done by building a patchwork of agreements and communication lines to avoid misunderstandings and crisis.

North Korea fired three test missiles, one of which was a suspected ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile), just hours after President Biden returned from his five-day tour to South Korea and Japan. North Korea fired another eight short-range missiles on June 5, the most it has fired in a single day. According to the United States ambassador to the United Nations, North Korea has already conducted 31 missile tests in 2022 and is prepared to perform a nuclear test; it is a high number of test missiles as compared to the previous year. Nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea have stalled since 2019. North Korea has long criticized the allies’ joint military exercises as invasion rehearsals, countering with short-range missile tests in 2016 and 2017 that simulated nuclear attacks on South Korean ports and US military bases in Japan. As Washington observes North Korean arrangements for a possible nuclear test explosion that foreign authorities fear it could happen in near future, President Joe Biden’s special envoy for North Korea said the US is ready for all possibilities in close coordination with its South Korean and Japanese allies.

After months of growing tensions including missile testing and Pyongyang’s rejection of efforts from President Joe Biden’s administration, the US and South Korea warned that North Korea could test its first nuclear weapon at any time. If North Korea performs a nuclear test, the two partners warned of a quick response including US military “adjustments”, but still offered negotiations as a way out one more time. Since March, signs of nuclear test preparation have become seen via satellite at Punggye-ri, which Pyongyang shut down in front of foreign journalists invited to witness its dismantlement in 2018. A United States based think-tank has conducted a new analysis and stated that commercial satellite imagery obtained on June 14 revealed “minor new activity” indicating that the construction work carried out over the previous four months is essentially completed now, and the tunnel is now ready for the speculated seventh nuclear test since 2006 and first since 2017.

North Korea appears to be expanding building operations into a second tunnel at its Punggye-ri, a Nuclear Test Facility, which has nearly completed all the restoration work. This is resulting in escalating tensions between the neighboring countries. North Korea’s other regional neighbors are also feeling the pressure, as depicted with Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi statement stating emphatically that Japan is “on the front lines” as its neighbor attempt to defy international rules. There are no easy solutions for the US and South Korea to stop North Korea’s missile program from progressing further. Despite the Biden administration’s invitation to meet “without preconditions”, North Korea has shown no interest in speaking with the US in recent months and is likely to avoid talks in the future. This type of reorientation is becoming increasingly critical as North Korea gets closer to being able to overwhelm US national missile defenses. Pragmatically, this needs a potential nuclear diplomacy roadmaps as long as North Korea refuses to negotiate with the US.

India is the world’s largest democratic state but ironically, the most anti-democratic acts have been observed in India in the past few weeks. From depriving the lower class Hindus and the other minority groups, like Muslims, from basic rights to now targeting specific religion (Islam), brutally killing Muslims and committing violence against them, the democratic values seem to be weakened. Tensions between Hindus and Muslims in India have been a point of conflict for decades, since before the British left and the country achieved independence in 1947. However, when Modi’s government assumed charge in 2014, the number of crimes committed against Muslims has progressively escalated. Members of the BJP have not publicly recognized their ambition of establishing India a Hindu nation until now, but, the BJP’s majoritarian politics, excluding Muslims, the country’s second largest faith, has proven to be a successful tactic of doing so.

Democracy in India can questioned since the minorities are deprived of basic social, political and economic rights. This is unacceptable in a democratic state. This largest democracy is also trying to annex Kashmir, a Muslim majority area, which so is a non-democratic idea. Indian Muslims are in a threat. It is clear that India is targeting specific community or ethnic group (Muslims) and indirectly trying to do ethnic cleansing. This comes under genocide and the world needs to realize this Nazi side of the BJP government. Muslims of India have become increasingly marginalized population and are indeed the victims of hate crimes. It is not wrong to say that ‘being Muslim’ in the worlds’ largest democratic potentially cost you your life.

The definition of secularism as the principle of separating the state from religious institutions, differ from the kind of secularism being practiced in India. In fact, the question is, is India even a secular state? The recurrent violations against the minority groups, specifically violence against Muslims, shows that there is no tolerance and only a space for the Hindu nationalist party ( BJP) led Hindutva ideology left in the country. This whole ideology contradicts with the idea of a secular state.

Since 2014, the BJP has governed in an ethno-religious and populist way. It represents traditional social systems as inherent to Indian culture and promotes communal, religious, caste, and gender-based violence. Not only Muslims are treated as second class citizens, but there is a lot of discrimination among the Hindu groups as well. The lower class Hindu families are also not treated fairly. The state infrastructure and institutions have been infiltrated by Hindutva ideology. This ideology has penetrated the media and public. It has an increasingly adverse influence on the courts, universities, and cultural institutions, which are largely dominated by Hindu nationalists. Hindutva activists engage militant groups, cultural patrolling, and brutality to gain control over civil society. Religion has been involved in the politics and is being used as the tool. The government is using its mainstream media to instill this narrative into its public and this is quite evident.

It has become so hard for Muslims to practice Islam while living in India. A lot of activities have had taken place which shows the anti-Muslim side of this ideology. For example, the ban on wearing Hijab and depriving Muslim children from right to education. Their cow protection law is also an anti-Muslim law. The most recent example is of the blasphemous remarks against Holy Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) by the spokespersons of BJP on media which is also condemned by many Muslim states. Their hatred for Muslims is not hidden from the world anymore but the international community (other than the Muslim states) still chose to remain silent. Their anti-Muslim narrative is not limited to India but the Indian violence against Muslims of Kashmir is also visible. It would not be wrong to asses that this ideology also contains the idea of greater India.

This ideology seems to have a long-term goal since narrative building for this ideology has already started. Hindutwa ideology is being promoted through textbooks in schools and colleges and also through the media. It’s high time for the International community to break the silence against Hindutva-fuelled hate and violence against Muslims and the minority groups of India. There is a lack of political participation of the minority groups as well which is one of the basic rights is also. This ideology has involved religion in politics to such an extent that it seems to be a no more secular state and this is against democracy as well.

The United States, Britain, Germany and France have submitted a draft resolution to the UN nuclear monitoring body (IAEA) criticizing Iran for failing to fully answer the issues of monitoring uranium traces at undeclared sites, a move that is likely to receive Iran’s backlash. In coming days it will be discussed, debated and voted on at the quarterly meeting of the 35-nation Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The draft resolution submitted states that the Board “expresses deep concern that the security issues related to the undeclared sites are still open despite numerous interactions with the Agency due to insufficient cooperation by Iran”. The deal is likely to happen easily and could lead to further undermine the already stalled talks on saving the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. On the other hand, Iran responded and denounced the resolution and called it as “political” and “unconstructive”. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization insisted on strict adherence to the safeguard agreement with the IAEA. Foreign Ministry of Iran has said “Iran condemns the adoption of the resolution presented by the United States, Britain, France and Germany at the Board of Governors meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency as a political, unconstructive and incorrect action that is adopted by UN nuclear watchdog”.

Background

The IAEA, located in Vienna, expressed concern over traces of enriched uranium previously discovered at three facilities in Tehran that had not been acknowledged as having conducted nuclear activity. Turquzabad, a Tehran neighborhood, was previously identified by Israel as a suspected site of secret atomic activity. On 3rd Jun 2022, Israeli officials met with UN’s nuclear watchdog envoy and said that Israel is all ready to use it “right to defense” against Iran to ward off the country from nuclear weapons. Israel also put an emphasis on the mobilization of the international community to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear deal and weapons.

Present Situation

The United States and its European allies have submitted a resolution to the IAEA board. In response, Iran has turned off a number of global nuclear watchdog cameras after Western powers introduced a resolution to censure it. According to the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Iran has removed basically all of the additional monitoring equipment installed under the 2015 nuclear deal. As per IAEA, Iran also plans to build two additional cascades of centrifuges, more precisely 6 centrifuges that will allow it to enrich more uranium more quickly in less time. No doubt, this situation will result in serious consequences that will have to be faced by Iran. The United States has already threatened Iran of imposing sanctions that will not affect Iran economically but it will lead to political isolation as well. Such steps will create more tensions in relations between the countries and the stakeholders involved in it. The crisis in form of conduct and implementation of nuclear talks will erupt and deepen the complications in efforts that were made to restore the nuclear deal and stability of the middle-east.

Tactical confrontations between India and China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and India and Pakistan at the Line of Control (LOC) occur on a regular basis in the India-Pakistan-China triangle. It has a complex history of unsolved border disputes. Furthermore, the geographic location of the three nuclear-armed countries defines this triangle, with any confrontation seen as posing the possibility of nuclear weapons use, or the potential of a war. This triangle is the key element of the whole South-Asian region.

It’s important to note that the unipolar world brought economic cooperation, and only two decades later, states are finding themselves tied in deep security interdependence, putting the future of economic growth and peace in jeopardy. The trilateral relations between China, Pakistan, and India has an interesting political and security interdependence dynamic. It shows not only their bilateral concerns, but also how regional powers’ influence is constrained regional multilateral mechanisms. China is self-sufficient in terms of security, but its economic progress is dependent on the rest of the globe.

Economic development is also the main interest between the two states. If Sino-Indian relations involve more of the economic dependency, there is a chance that China makes an effort to resolve its border disputes with India. This may help or hinder Pakistan to resolve its dispute on Kashmir with India. This may avoid the two-front war as China and Pakistan border disputes with India are still not resolved and Pakistan and China have a close strategic and military partnership. The India-Pakistan-China relationship is shaped by national power disparities and reciprocal threat perceptions, which are further exacerbated by the regional implications of the US-China dispute. China’s good relations with India can help China contain the U.S influence in India. Apart from the more abrupt responses and counter-reactions over the disputed borders, tensions may agitate in international arena on matters like counterterrorism and nonproliferation, as well as the regional stability scenario in Afghanistan.

Flashback:

Since the Gulf War in 1990, bilateral security cooperation has grown dramatically. In 1994, the UAE and the US inked a formal defense cooperation agreement, which included joint training and exercises, the prepositioning of US military assets in the UAE, and the transfer of modern weapons systems, recognizing common strategic objectives and priorities. In May 2019, a revised defense cooperation agreement went into effect.

The United Arab Emirates and the United States are committed to maintaining security and stability in the Middle East and also around the world. From the First Gulf War to Kosovo, Afghanistan, Libya, and the battle against ISIS, UAE and US armed troops have collaborated on six military coalition engagements over the last three decades. The US-UAE Strategic Dialogue, a new strategic dialogue framework for collaboration and discussion on topics ranging from trade to security was inaugurated in October 2020 by the two governments. This expands on the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) between the UAE and the US, which was signed for better coordination and advancement of a strong military, political and economic ties between the two countries. The United Arab Emirates is a vital US partner in the Middle East, providing vital support for US troops, aircraft, and naval vessels. At Al Dhafra Air Base located outside of Abu Dhabi, the UAE accommodates 5,000 US military personnel.

Recently, the Biden administration is in talks with the United Arab Emirates about a possible strategic agreement that would provide the Gulf country with specific security guarantees from the United States. The talks began in November of last year, but they grew more serious once tensions between the UAE and the Biden administration were eased in late March. Relations had been tense since the Emiratis perceived the US response to the Houthi missile and drone assaults on Abu Dhabi in January as delayed and inadequate. Now it matters most as both the countries the UAE and the Biden administration is talking about a “Strategic Framework Agreement”. The two countries have mutual interests and benefits in this agreement on the basis of security and economic ties. The United States provides very little foreign aid to the UAE but what it does is the provision of large-scale training for UAE officials in counterterrorism, border security and anti-proliferation activities. On the other hand, after Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, oil prices have significantly increased worldwide. UAE could help in this case by producing and supplying the oil which will reduce the dependency on Russian oil. It will help to serve the economic interests of US and security as well as the economic interests of the United Arab Emirates. It is being said that the Biden administration is willing to make some guarantees to the UAE as part of a deal, but it is uncertain how far the United States will go. The talks are expected to continue in the following weeks, but the final agreement is yet to be seen.