The United States, Britain, Germany and France have submitted a draft resolution to the UN nuclear monitoring body (IAEA) criticizing Iran for failing to fully answer the issues of monitoring uranium traces at undeclared sites, a move that is likely to receive Iran’s backlash. In coming days it will be discussed, debated and voted on at the quarterly meeting of the 35-nation Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The draft resolution submitted states that the Board “expresses deep concern that the security issues related to the undeclared sites are still open despite numerous interactions with the Agency due to insufficient cooperation by Iran”. The deal is likely to happen easily and could lead to further undermine the already stalled talks on saving the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. On the other hand, Iran responded and denounced the resolution and called it as “political” and “unconstructive”. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization insisted on strict adherence to the safeguard agreement with the IAEA. Foreign Ministry of Iran has said “Iran condemns the adoption of the resolution presented by the United States, Britain, France and Germany at the Board of Governors meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency as a political, unconstructive and incorrect action that is adopted by UN nuclear watchdog”.

Background

The IAEA, located in Vienna, expressed concern over traces of enriched uranium previously discovered at three facilities in Tehran that had not been acknowledged as having conducted nuclear activity. Turquzabad, a Tehran neighborhood, was previously identified by Israel as a suspected site of secret atomic activity. On 3rd Jun 2022, Israeli officials met with UN’s nuclear watchdog envoy and said that Israel is all ready to use it “right to defense” against Iran to ward off the country from nuclear weapons. Israel also put an emphasis on the mobilization of the international community to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear deal and weapons.

Present Situation

The United States and its European allies have submitted a resolution to the IAEA board. In response, Iran has turned off a number of global nuclear watchdog cameras after Western powers introduced a resolution to censure it. According to the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Iran has removed basically all of the additional monitoring equipment installed under the 2015 nuclear deal. As per IAEA, Iran also plans to build two additional cascades of centrifuges, more precisely 6 centrifuges that will allow it to enrich more uranium more quickly in less time. No doubt, this situation will result in serious consequences that will have to be faced by Iran. The United States has already threatened Iran of imposing sanctions that will not affect Iran economically but it will lead to political isolation as well. Such steps will create more tensions in relations between the countries and the stakeholders involved in it. The crisis in form of conduct and implementation of nuclear talks will erupt and deepen the complications in efforts that were made to restore the nuclear deal and stability of the middle-east.

Tactical confrontations between India and China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and India and Pakistan at the Line of Control (LOC) occur on a regular basis in the India-Pakistan-China triangle. It has a complex history of unsolved border disputes. Furthermore, the geographic location of the three nuclear-armed countries defines this triangle, with any confrontation seen as posing the possibility of nuclear weapons use, or the potential of a war. This triangle is the key element of the whole South-Asian region.

It’s important to note that the unipolar world brought economic cooperation, and only two decades later, states are finding themselves tied in deep security interdependence, putting the future of economic growth and peace in jeopardy. The trilateral relations between China, Pakistan, and India has an interesting political and security interdependence dynamic. It shows not only their bilateral concerns, but also how regional powers’ influence is constrained regional multilateral mechanisms. China is self-sufficient in terms of security, but its economic progress is dependent on the rest of the globe.

Economic development is also the main interest between the two states. If Sino-Indian relations involve more of the economic dependency, there is a chance that China makes an effort to resolve its border disputes with India. This may help or hinder Pakistan to resolve its dispute on Kashmir with India. This may avoid the two-front war as China and Pakistan border disputes with India are still not resolved and Pakistan and China have a close strategic and military partnership. The India-Pakistan-China relationship is shaped by national power disparities and reciprocal threat perceptions, which are further exacerbated by the regional implications of the US-China dispute. China’s good relations with India can help China contain the U.S influence in India. Apart from the more abrupt responses and counter-reactions over the disputed borders, tensions may agitate in international arena on matters like counterterrorism and nonproliferation, as well as the regional stability scenario in Afghanistan.

Flashback:

Since the Gulf War in 1990, bilateral security cooperation has grown dramatically. In 1994, the UAE and the US inked a formal defense cooperation agreement, which included joint training and exercises, the prepositioning of US military assets in the UAE, and the transfer of modern weapons systems, recognizing common strategic objectives and priorities. In May 2019, a revised defense cooperation agreement went into effect.

The United Arab Emirates and the United States are committed to maintaining security and stability in the Middle East and also around the world. From the First Gulf War to Kosovo, Afghanistan, Libya, and the battle against ISIS, UAE and US armed troops have collaborated on six military coalition engagements over the last three decades. The US-UAE Strategic Dialogue, a new strategic dialogue framework for collaboration and discussion on topics ranging from trade to security was inaugurated in October 2020 by the two governments. This expands on the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) between the UAE and the US, which was signed for better coordination and advancement of a strong military, political and economic ties between the two countries. The United Arab Emirates is a vital US partner in the Middle East, providing vital support for US troops, aircraft, and naval vessels. At Al Dhafra Air Base located outside of Abu Dhabi, the UAE accommodates 5,000 US military personnel.

Recently, the Biden administration is in talks with the United Arab Emirates about a possible strategic agreement that would provide the Gulf country with specific security guarantees from the United States. The talks began in November of last year, but they grew more serious once tensions between the UAE and the Biden administration were eased in late March. Relations had been tense since the Emiratis perceived the US response to the Houthi missile and drone assaults on Abu Dhabi in January as delayed and inadequate. Now it matters most as both the countries the UAE and the Biden administration is talking about a “Strategic Framework Agreement”. The two countries have mutual interests and benefits in this agreement on the basis of security and economic ties. The United States provides very little foreign aid to the UAE but what it does is the provision of large-scale training for UAE officials in counterterrorism, border security and anti-proliferation activities. On the other hand, after Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, oil prices have significantly increased worldwide. UAE could help in this case by producing and supplying the oil which will reduce the dependency on Russian oil. It will help to serve the economic interests of US and security as well as the economic interests of the United Arab Emirates. It is being said that the Biden administration is willing to make some guarantees to the UAE as part of a deal, but it is uncertain how far the United States will go. The talks are expected to continue in the following weeks, but the final agreement is yet to be seen.

US President Joe Biden is anticipated to announce that Israel has agreed to new security arrangements that will allow Egypt to hand over management of two islands in the Tiran Straits to Saudi Arabia. A multinational force is now stationed on the islands of Tiran and Sanafir, which Saudi Arabia does not want once the islands are under their authority. Israel will agree to post its military on what will remain Egyptian soil, several kilometers distant, in a soon-to-be-announced accord. As Middle Eastern countries reposition themselves to face a new potential threats, a major new alliance, long thought unlikely, appears to be forming with this security agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Background:

Egypt announced the handover of two strategic islands Tiran and Sanafir in the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia in April 2016. While the Egyptian Parliament and Supreme Court have approved the transfer of the islands to Riyadh, Israeli consent is also necessary under the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace deal. No advancements on the islands are permitted without Israel’s agreement, according to Israel’s peace pact with Egypt. Fearing that Israel would capture the islands, Riyadh handed them to Egypt in 1950. Israel conquered the islands for a few months in 1956. After the Six-Day War in 1967, when Egypt disrupted Israeli traffic routes, Israel seized the islands. After a few years, a peace accord was signed in 1982, and the islands, as well as half of the Sinai Peninsula, were handed back.

The Biden administration believes that concluding an agreement will increase confidence between the two countries and pave the way for cordial relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It would be the most major US Middle East foreign policy victory since the Abraham Accords which were arranged by the Trump administration and resulted in normalization agreements between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. Official diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia do not exist, but informal ties have grown in recent years as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has reportedly considered Israel as a crucial partner in the fight against Iranian dominance in the area. As per reports, after getting a special visa, Saudi Arabia is allowing Israeli businesspeople to enter the country with their Israeli passports.

According to a Globes report, a number of Israeli IT entrepreneurs and executives recently travelled to Saudi Arabia for advanced talks about Saudi investments in Israeli companies and investment funds. With this agreement, Israel is concerned about the safety of shipping lines that run through the islands. Saudi Arabia has pledged to respect the routes and to retain the islands demilitarized by ensuring full freedom of navigation for all ships, but it wanted the international observers to leave the islands. Also, Saudi Arabia will allow Israeli planes to operate across its airspace in exchange. Only Israeli flights to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, as well as Air India flights to and from Israel, can currently fly over Saudi Arabia. Both the countries are stressing over the agreement because of the economic benefits and security interests at stake. If the agreement is reached, it will also be a major foreign policy success for the Biden administration in the Middle East. The official announcement is said to be made by US President Joe Biden who is expected to visit Israel and Saudi Arabia this month.

Sri Lanka’s economy has been insubstantial since its independence. There have been highs and lows in the economic system of the country. As it is known that Sri Lanka is a country that had also been involved in an ethnic conflict for decades. The civil war between the Sinhalese and Tamils did only cause the deaths and casualties in fact, the economic cost, social, developmental, environmental and strategic cost as well. However, the conflict got resolved later on but there are many more factors which are currently making the situation in Sri Lanka anarchic, out of which, one is the present economic crisis. The country’s economy pretty much depends on the tourism but the pandemic affected that as well. Sri Lanka’s public finances have been undermined by successive regimes economic mismanagement that has led to national expenditure exceeding income and minimal production of export products and services.

Sri Lanka is at the verge of bankruptcy. Farmers who should be planting their crops at the beginning of the rainy season are suffering since they can’t afford or even find the fuel needed for tractors to till the soil. With the economy in collapse, prices are rising, and food is running out. The food crisis is expected to worsen as farmers grow fewer crops. As a result of reducing incomes, costs in shops and marketplaces have risen, and Sri Lanka has become more dependent on imports that it can hardly sustain. Due to the extreme economic inflation, anti-government protests began in March to overthrow their president by the population. The capital was kept under lockdown, and the following day, a state of emergency was announced. The interim president was appointed as well. After the finance minister resigned, the president lost his legislative majority and repealed the state of emergency. Protests erupted around the country soon after, fueled by a new shortage of life-saving drugs. Protesters demanded that the president resign since he was failing to manage the crisis by borrowing too much cash. The situation got escalated and the protests became violent as well. Security forces have been given the power to crack down and the government approached the International Monetary Fund for a bailout. Food yields are down and power cuts have been increased with no enough supply of fuel to power stations.

This is the chaotic situation in Sri-Lanka. The country is at the brink of civil war once again. It is quite obvious that when the population gets deprived of the basic human necessities, the chance of protracted conflict arises. The anarchic internal situation of the country will affect the whole region.To tackle a global economic slowdown, the world must begin to focus on multiple crises at the same time. Many Western leaders act as if the world is engaged in a single crisis and that is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The international community needs to prevent the country from entering in the political and economic war.

According to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, an ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) can be transformed into a “trilateral partnership” between China, Pakistan, and Turkey. This will enable all three friendly nations to benefit from its prospects. He also said that with the development of financial and industrial activities, trade activities have the potential to increase massively. The current CPEC project will help us achieve our purpose of maximizing regional connectivity and increasing trade. “Turkiye and Pakistan as ‘one nation living in two countries and even before the creation of Pakistan, the Muslims of the sub-continent supported the cause of their Turkish brethren,” said the Prime Minister of Pakistan. China and Turkey are ready to accept this proposal say both the countries’ presidents.

Pakistan and Turkey has a very strong, friendly and harmonious relationship since past 70 years. Turkey and its ideological partnership with Pakistan is significant not only for the peace in the region of South Asia, but also for Europe and the Gulf. On the other hand, China’s and Turkey’s relation has had ups and downs but now, both have been establishing Sino-Turkish strategic cooperation and economic partnership. CPEC would further deepen their economic partnership. This multilateral CPEC project is also leading China towards becoming an economic hegemon and would increase the global relevance of China. Also, Turkey is a key junction to connect China with Europe. This will be very favorable for China.

The partnership will not only be beneficial for economic purposes but, it will strengthen the internal situation of all the member countries and will prevent the external influence from the regions. The new strategic and economic alliances will be built. This Turkey, Pakistan and China relationship can also be helpful for taking a stand on Kashmir issue against India’s atrocities, Palestine issue and making Afghanistan’s circumstances better since they do depend on peace, security, and stability in South Asia and the Middle East. A Pakistani senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed has truly stated: ‘’The policies of “Muslim middle powers” can no longer be dictated by Western nations, while these nations should focus on connectivity, boosting their economies, and coming together for “mutual interests.” Pakistan and Turkey relationship in terms of CPEC will indeed build up a strong position of the two Islamic states in the Muslim world and internationally as well. CPEC is a multi-million project and the largest foreign investment so, it will definitely boost energy resources and increase international trade through its convenient routes balancing geopolitics and economics.

Extreme heat has continued to scorch both the neighboring countries, Pakistan and India. It has been the hottest April in Pakistan in the past years. The record-breaking heat waves caused by climate change occurred in India as well. The heat wave has had severe repercussions. It is not only causing the climate problems but is equally affecting all the living things. Climate change is not only a threat to environment and human’s health but is affecting the animals, plants, crops as well. This can also cause the economic crisis for both the countries since their economies also depends on the agriculture. It is also surging electricity demand and stressing on the power grid since people need the artificial cooling the most right now.

The hot weather has also elevated dust and ozone levels, allowing air pollution to increase in major cities throughout the region. The heat caused mountain glaciers to melt more quickly than in the past, causing in flash floods in Pakistan. At the same time, internal political turmoil and the economic fallout from the Covid-19 outbreak are attempting to make the reaction to the heat wave even harder. The heat wave in South Region is anticipated to extend to other countries. Hot temperatures are harming wheat growth, possibly going to drive up already high cost of food all around world. . Extreme heat is very dangerous for the people of India and Pakistan. Agricultural sector employs over 60% of India’s workforce and 40% of Pakistan’s workforce, with the task being done outside. Both countries are in the midst of their wheat farming season, leaving millions of people in the terrible situation of having to choose between working in harmful weather or quitting their jobs.

Climate change is not something which will remain limited to a specific region, in fact, it has impact on the neighboring regions as well. India today, is the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Pakistan also run on electricity from burning fossil fuels and this also emit greenhouse gases which heat up the planet. Both the countries, for the sake of their own interests shall take collaborative decision to slow down the climate crisis. Other countries and international bodies shall also help them mitigate the climate crisis. There are ways to safeguard people in South Asia from heat waves, but governments in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan will have to take the issue more urgently than they have before.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a turning point for many countries on different levels. Across western Eurasia, the existing systems such as political, economic, energy and transportation networks are being impacted. Countries are attempting to mitigate the war’s negative effects while forming new trade synergies at a quick pace. For instance, Germany and Qatar have signed a long-term energy deal to export Qatari natural gas, as the Germans seek to lessen their reliance on Russian supplies. For the past 30 years, United States and European Union has kept Iran marginalized systematically from energy trade and multiple projects that connect Middle East with European Union. European countries are highly dependent on Russia; almost 38% of the natural gas is being imported. For that reason, Europe is striving to find new options and end the dependency on Russian gas.

Despite of imposing sanctions on Iran for a huge time period, the intensity of the invasion and new economic sanctions on Russia has pushed US and EU to review Iran’s economic exclusion. For that, Iran also has to think about the Iran and European Union relationship for energy and transit projects. After suffering various sanctions, it seems like Iranian administration is harnessing new economic opportunities that has emerged due to the Ukraine war as well as Russia’s isolation. Therefore, and seriously looking upon European-Iranian partnership for its own benefits which is quite evident. On 15th May 2022, it is said by the Iran’s oil ministry official that Iran is considering gas exports to Europe. The idea was contemplated because of the rocketing prices due to ongoing war.

On the other hand, talks between Iran and US are being held to revive 2015 nuclear deal. Currently, the talks are in a state of deadlock but the EU is making efforts and a last ditch-attempt to save the nuclear deal. The EU policy Chief Josep Borrell has said in a statement: “EU will do everything possible to bring Iran nuclear talks back on track and ensure full compliance with the treaty”. With this we can analyze that a new partnership is budding between the two, on the basis of mutual interests. It will help Iran grow economically in both the cases, even if Iran exports gas to EU or the Iran nuclear deal revive as the sanctions will be removed. Whereas, European Union’s dependency on Russian gas can be reduced having Iran as a new partner.

In 2015, Iran signed a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, which is commonly known as “Iran Nuclear Deal”. The deal was signed between five permanent members of United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Germany (P5+1) countries and Iran. When Donald Trump came into power in 2018, a unilateral American withdrawal from nuclear deal was observed. Whereas, in 2021, Joe Biden administration decided to revive the deal in April 2021 on which Iran also agreed and talks started. In February 2022, the participants of the deal said “the deal was on the verge of being finalized after a year of discussions”. At the times when United States and Iran talks advanced, Ukraine-Russia war erupted in the form of a new issue due to which the renewed deal process was delayed. Now, another main point of contention is Iran’s demand of removing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) be taken off from U.S list of Foreign Terrorists Organization (FTO). They were placed in 2019 on the list after Trump’s maximum pressure campaign after unilateral withdrawal of nuclear deal. The Vienna discussions on deal seem to be crossing the line between a breaking point and a breakthrough. The U.S still considers the deal in its national interests as said by the Secretary of State, Tony Blinken.

However, the ongoing deal has set off alarm bells in Israel; the leaders have condemned the deal at various platforms as they are of opinion it will not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. With a signed agreement, Iran will be more confident in its actions and will have more resources. Israel fears that sanctions will be removed and billions of dollars in frozen assets would be released, causing Iran to spend more on its regional proxies. Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in a statement has said that “the emerging deal, as it seems, is highly likely to create a more violent and more volatile Middle-East”. Also, he repeated his threat that Israel is not bound to attack Iran. According to United States Ambassador to Israel, Israeli’s hands are not tied if America has a deal with Iran. It can take any action against Iran to protect Israel. Prime Minister has expressed his concerns to secretary of state that afterwards risks of deal will affect the region and Israel. Recently, Bennett has invited Joe Biden to visit Israel which has been accepted. Despite this, Israel’s remarks alluded to points of contention. Israel has warned Biden to not delist IRGC for the security of state. Israeli media is also reporting the chances of nuclear deal are “slim to none”.

If an agreement is made, Tehran has also asked to access the frozen $7 billion and oil exports, the sanctions will be lifted from Iran. As a result, Iran, the United States and the rest of the globe would benefit economically. With Iran being able to sell oil around the world, it may be able to help down the sky-high energy prices caused by Ukraine war. The deal is in limbo; on the other hand, Israel is ramping up the pressure on Biden administration, but it has to be seen yet that U.S will delist the IRGC and will result in a historical “Iran Nuclear Deal” or not.

The current situation:

The deadly violence against Palestinians continue by the Israelis. Israeli Police has entered Mosque Al-Aqsa and has killed many innocent Palestinians in this holy month of Ramadan, at the holy place. Protests have taken place in Gaza as Israeli raided the Mosque calling out the Arab and the whole international community for help. The violation of human rights has seen to be flared up by the Israelis in the last two months of 2022 (March and April). Israel has also carried out air raids in the central Gaza Strip. It is for the second time in the two weeks that Israel is attacking.

Israel-Palestine Conflict under a legal perspective:

According to the Resolution 181, adopted by United Nations General Assembly in 1947, led to the creation of two independent states in the territory of Palestine. One, the Jewish state of Israel, other the Arab state of Palestine.

Article 1 of the Montevideo Convention states “the state as a body of international law should possess the following characteristics:

A permanent population

A defined territory

Government

Sovereignty and Capacity to enter into relations with other states

Israel and Palestine both attained these characteristics but the sovereignty of Palestine has been compromised after the Israel’s creation. Palestine does have a definitive and permanent population and Palestinians reside in both, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. It even has the government but still the Israel’s violations and occupation in the Palestine’s territory hurt its sovereignty. This theory of state supports for Palestinian claims to statehood and Palestine meets the criteria of statehood if other states recognize its statehood. Such a formal acknowledgement may have come in the form of the UNGA’s 2012 resolution on the status of Palestine’s statehood. The resolution received 138 votes in favor, 9 against, and 41 abstentions. In result the Palestine was granted non-member observer state status in the United Nations.

The development of Israeli settlements in the Israeli-occupied areas is considered illegal by the international community for violating Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention and international declarations. The Fourth Geneva Convention is applicable to the Israeli-occupied areas, according to the United Nations Security Council, the United Nations General Assembly, and the International Committee of the Red Cross, the International Court of Justice, and the High Contracting Parties to the Convention. Israeli settlements in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights are considered illegal under international law.

Conclusion:

International community and the Muslim world are also against the Israeli’s settlements and violations of international law and human rights, but no legal action has ever been taken. Protests against the Israeli’s violations take place in many states but, the international community has always given a muted response because of its own parochial interests. Yet, Israel continues to illegally violate human rights and other international legal decisions even without any sanctions. This shows the International community’s failure of enforcing UN resolutions, in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It lacks to provide protection to Palestinians nor can it guarantee justice for them. This repeated failure of enforcement questions the precedence of UN Charter. Thus, the conflict will not transform towards de-escalation.