It is known that International Security is one of the grand strategies of the foreign policy of every state. The role of intelligence in the policy-making of the state is quite significant. By the role of intelligence in policy-making, it means, the importance of intelligence agencies in shaping up the country’s foreign policies. In order to enhance the decision making, along with the strategic intelligence which is needed to enhance the decision-making process, states’ intelligence institutes are equally important for shaping the long-term plan of the states. Policy making is the process of developing and identifying the ideas, options, and long-term policies in order to achieve the objectives and national interests of the state. State’s individuals like leaders, policymakers, and state’s institutions like political, military, and economic plays role in foreign policy. So, similarly, intelligence also has its role too. It has been analyzed that if the intelligence of the states works effectively, then it will help the policymakers to shape the state’s strategies which will support the security and survival. The data and information which is collected by the intelligence are very important because the country’s strategy is based on that, and even sometimes, decision-makers blame their wrong decisions on the intelligence that correct information was not given to them due to which there was an error in the strategy. One of the examples of this is when United States waged ‘’War on Terror’’ in Iraq and justified it by telling the whole world that there are weapons of mass destruction, which later on, were not found. Intelligence was blamed for not giving the correct information. In the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, intelligence services were questioned as well.

Sun Tzu, a Chinese strategist in his book ‘’The Art of War’’ emphasized on the importance of information. It has 13 chapters that address the general definition of a strategy, up to the usage of tactics such as spies. According to him, all warfare, on the strategic and the tactical level, is based on deception and surprise, and therefore on intelligence as well. So, Sun Tzu relied on intelligence as in his sight, continuous use of information about the enemy’s strategy and tactical capacities is the only effective way to exploit the enemy’s weaknesses and gain your national interests. He focused on ‘’know yourself and know your enemy’’ which is not possible without having information through intelligence. Hence, the importance of intelligence is apparent in national security and every strategist considers the idea of Sun Tzu about intelligence important. Knowledge of the enemy’s dispositions is important to obtain and this can only be done by intelligence. The relationship between strategy and intelligence is that whenever the strategies are made for example if we take the example of Pakistan, its top strategy would be security and survival since it has India, an immediate neighbor as an enemy. So there would be India-centric strategies and for that, it is important to know your enemy. Intelligence helps in revealing the secret information of the adversaries. Intelligence has also played a role in shaping the counter-terrorism strategies in Pakistan along with the other state institutes. Strategies of the states are not limited to achieving the political goals of the states, or for the military purpose and for winning the wars, but it includes the long-term planning, training, exercising, public awareness, risk analysis, and preparedness. Intelligence and information also have special importance in formulating the defense strategy.

Intelligence does not only play role in shaping the country’s policies but also helps to implement those policies as well. Intelligence can play a role in building narratives in people’s minds to accept the policy of the state and make people accept the long-term plans of their country. Ordinary people and their interests must also be treated as citizens rather than subjects, so this can cause complexity to formulate and implement strategies so for this, intelligence is also required. Intelligence cannot make real-world easy, but it can give awareness and intuition with respect to the objectives or strategies, resources, leadership, and priorities. Intelligence can keep an eye on that who can ruin the policy of the states. Covert actions can be used to influence political, military, or economic conditions or situations abroad, here the role of intelligence is equally important. Policymakers should not only solely rely on intelligence because sometimes there can be false information or sometimes, but the information also could not be found. For example, the intelligence of U.S failed to detect the 9/11 attack. Though, intelligence-free strategy is surely less possible in this century. Strategies can become more successful if they incorporate information from intelligence. This is even more vital for the process of implementation. Intelligence aims for analyzing the information in support of law enforcement, national security, military, and foreign policy objectives. Intelligence is not supposed to have its own policy agenda or strategies but the duty of intelligence is to inform and improve policy decisions made by the appointed officials.

Introduction

A high-level delegation of all the armed forces i.e. army, navy, and air force of Pakistan visited China for a three-day meeting of the Pakistan China Joint Military Cooperation Committee (PCJMCC) from 9th-12th June 2022. The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa also joined the meeting along with tri-service delegation and Chinese Generals followed by an apex committee which is the highest military cooperation body. The committee is comprised of two sub-committees, including Joint Cooperation Military Affairs (JCMA) and Joint Cooperation Military Equipment and training (JCMET). In a statement released by Innter Services Public Relations (ISPR), it is said that the tri-service delegation had discussions with the Chinese military and other governmental departments on various topics. By maintaining their “strategic partnership in difficult times, both the countries China and Pakistan have decided to increase their defense cooperation. In apex committee, as per the statement “Both countries discussed their perspectives on the international and regional security situation and expressed satisfaction on defense cooperation between the two countries”. The two sides also committed to improve tri-service level training, technology, and counter-terrorism cooperation.

Flashback

In April 2022, three Chinese were targeted and killed in Karachi because of a bombing attack, an ethnic separatist organization claimed the responsibility of this attack who is operating in Baluchistan. The aim of the militant group is to eliminate the economic and diplomatic footprints from the region. Not only that, the insurgent group also targeted CPEC infrastructure projects, such as gas pipelines and electricity towers. Since the start of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2015, there is an increase in attacks on Chinese nationals which concerns the China’s Government. Therefore, demands are being made to intensify strict regulations and security standard operating procedures for Chinese nationals. On Chinese requests, Islamabad Police established a foreign security cell at the Central Police Office (CPO).

CPEC and Pak-China Relations despite Challenges

India and other western sponsors did negative propaganda regarding CPEC using media outlets to create unrest between the relations of two countries. But all these rumors were rejected as the new Government has announced the budget for fiscal year 2022-2023, Rs 800 billion has been allocated to Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) with a focus on CPEC. The reactivation of CPEC and related projects for interprovincial and regional connectivity as well as special economic zones (SEZs) to encourage commerce, industrialization and job creation are key features that are mentioned in the PSDP. Concessional finance deal for a multi-billion dollar ML-1 project under CPEC is expected to be finalized in the second quarter of the fiscal year, according to the annual plan 2022-23. Following that, arrangement will be made for the implementation of other projects under CPEC. Six energy projects with a total installed capacity of roughly 3,284MW are now under construction, in the fourth quarter of FY2021-22 it is expected that 11050MW will be completed. In addition, in 2022-23, the following projects are anticipated to begin:

1.  Construction of Breakwater.
2.  Dredging of Breathing areas and Channels.
3.  Gwadar Smart Environment Sanitation System and Landfill project for Gwadar.
4.  Construction of Boat making industry on Gwadar West Bay.
5.  MGD Desalination Plant in Gwadar.

Regardless of the challenging times, last month after the attack on three Chinese teachers and their Pakistani driver, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari visited China at the invitation of his counterpart Wang Yi. The two sides condemned the incident and pledged to strengthen counterterrorism and security cooperation, also they urged other regional countries and the international community to collaborate and fight together against terrorism in all its forms and shapes. Meanwhile, the tensions between China and the West are deepening. West is pressurizing Pakistan for its stance on the Russia-Ukraine war but Pakistan has maintained a balanced approach till now. Both China and Pakistan are of the view to remain alert during the ongoing crisis and emphasized the use of diplomacy and dialogue to overcome differences and disputes.

The importance of China-Pakistan strategic relations has assumed even greater significance” due to recent “profound regional and international changes. Pakistan must take special measures for CPEC projects through the integrated mechanisms, approval and allocation of funds, and better “security arrangements” for the smooth functioning of public-private partnerships in the country. There is a need to improve governance, rule of law and security arrangements not only to ensure the security of Chinese nationals and to complete CPEC projects but also to maintain good relations and friendly ties with China. It is important for Pakistan’s economic and political stability, and “strategic partnership” between the two countries. Regular exchange of perspectives on issues of mutual interests is a true example of Pak-China friendship which is also evident from the current apex meeting where China and Pakistan vowed to support each other’s core interests.

Making Sense of the CPEC Controversy

Rafiullah Kakar

The controversy around the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) seems far from subsiding. In recent developments, political parties from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Balochistan have upped the ante and have accused the ruling party of ignoring the smaller provinces in the multi-billion dollar project. In an attempt to make sense of the concerns advanced by representatives from Balochistan and K-P, I am going to examine the position taken by the federal government in a series of articles.

The CPEC is a multi-route corridor that will be completed in multiple phases over a period of 15 years. As per the decision of the May 28, 2015, APC, the western route of the corridor passing through the relatively lesser-developed provinces of Balochistan and K-P is being built on a priority basis. To judge whether the federal government has actually prioritized the building of the western route or not, let’s develop a simple test and check if its claims about having prioritized this route pass the test. According to the test, the western route shall be considered prioritized if it meets the following conditions:

1) The quality of infrastructure of the western route should be better or at least similar to that of the eastern route. For this to happen, the government must have allocated the required financial resources to the route.

2) Ideally, the western route should be constructed first so that it can become functional before the other two routes. If circumstances are not ideal, as is often the case, then it should become operational at least simultaneously with the other routes. Timing is central to economic planning and development. The question of ‘which-route-to-take-first’ is very important and is likely to play a key role in shaping the subsequent path of development.

3) At least half of the proposed industrial parks and economic zones and other supporting components of the corridor, including energy projects, railway tracks, and gas pipelines should be located along the western route.

Now let’s examine if the western route fulfills the criteria enumerated above.

The western route is a two-lane road whereas the eastern route is a high-speed six-lane modern motorway with controlled-access design. The pavement design of the eastern route is markedly superior to that of the western route. The latter can’t withstand loaded trucks. The superiority of the eastern route is not surprising given the government’s preferential funding for it. The allocation pattern of federal development funding clearly suggests that the eastern route is the government’s priority. In the 2015-16 federal PSDP, the government has allocated only Rs20 billion to the western route while earmarking a handsome Rs110 billion to the eastern alignment. Out of the Rs20 billion, approximately Rs5 billion have been allocated for the Gwadar-Turbat-Hoshab (M8) and Hoshab-Panjgur-Besima (N85) sections, which constitute the common route shared by all three alignments. In strictly technical terms, therefore, the funds earmarked for the western route in the 2015-16 federal PSDP are approximately Rs15 billion, of which not even a penny comes from the approximately $11 billion CPEC loans taken on for infrastructure development. As of December 31, 2015, only Rs1.6 billion of the Rs15 billion have been released.

Coming to the second pillar of the test, the two-lane road along the western alignment is likely to be completed by the end of 2018 whereas the six-lane motorway along the eastern alignment will be completed by the end of 2017. Lastly, the eastern route passes through the relatively developed parts of the country and is in geographical proximity of major urban centres, energy production sites and growth zones. Railway tracks and LNG pipelines will run parallel to it. As far as industrial parks are concerned, let’s hope they will be equally distributed among the three routes.

Given the huge contrast in the infrastructural quality and spatial proximity of the two routes, the eastern route is destined to effectively become the primary route, the government rhetoric about having prioritised the western route notwithstanding. The two-lane western route, if completed by 2018, will remain an auxiliary route at best. The reality is that the government had decided to change the corridor route in late 2013 or early 2014. This is proven by the 2014-15 federal PSDP in which the government had earmarked Rs49 billion for the CPEC, all of which was to be spent on the eastern route. When confronted with mounting political pressure in 2015, the federal government allocated a nominal amount for the western route in the 2015-16 PSDP.

Now let us come to the government’s claims that the revenue generated from the motorway on the eastern route will be used to upgrade the western route to become a four-lane and ultimately a six-lane motorway. Railway tracks will be laid from Gwadar to Peshawar passing through Quetta and DI Khan.

First, there are no credible guarantees that these commitments will be duly honored, especially given the long time horizon — 15 years — it involves. If history is any indication, complacency will creep in and the urgency and motivation, if any, to upgrade the western route will wane once the eastern route becomes functional. The federal government will keep fabricating excuses to delay the up gradation of the western route. Fiscal constraints and political crises of one or the other type will continue giving it plausible cover. Protesting voices from smaller provinces will be coerced into silence by appeals to ‘patriotism’ and ‘India’s malicious designs over the project’.

Secondly, even if the credible commitment problem is somehow resolved, the up-gradation of the western route at a later stage is unlikely to alter the position of the eastern route as the primary route of the corridor. The western route will at best play second fiddle to the eastern one. Once the eastern route with its superior infrastructure and geographical proximity to the developed and prosperous urban centers takes the lead as a result of the initial preferential treatment it has received from the federal government, it is likely to stay ahead of the competing routes because of positive feedbacks and increasing returns to scale. Over time, development choices will be constrained within a progressively narrower range of possibilities that will tend to preserve the status quo. This is known as path-dependence, which among other things, partially explains the persistence of regional disparities. Nevertheless, the concept does not rule out the possibility of breaking out and establishing new paths, especially in the beginning of a process. The CPEC offered the government the formative moment to break out and create new paths of economic development by prioritising its under-developed regions. Unfortunately, the ruling elite have not taken advantage of this opportunity.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 22^nd,  2016.

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Courtesy: The Express Tribune