Introduction

Amid of Ukraine war, the energy crisis in Europe is worsening. European Union is of opinion that Russia is using natural gas as a political and economic weapon while influencing the energy security of the region as the prices of electricity and gas are skyrocketing. In addition to that, the deadly war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the energy markets at a large scale and has disrupted energy security at the global level. To deal with the ongoing crisis, member states of the European Union are making efforts to limit actually to end their reliance on Russian gas in order to fulfill the needs of consumers and the country. In March 2022, the Task Force on European Energy Security has been established to take necessary steps for reducing the demand of Russian gas and to find new ways which can diversify energy supply technologies. Apart from that, Gulf countries are being considered as the potential solution for the existing energy problem in Europe. The spokesperson of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, Peter Stano in a statement has said “EU seeks to enhance relations with GCC and Saudi Arabia because it is will be helpful for the people of all the countries”. He added, “the development of our relationship and our cooperation is something that the European Union, Saudi Arabia, and all of the Gulf Cooperation Council nations are interested in”. That is why, earlier this year European Union and Gulf Council Cooperation (GCC) made a joint action program for a period of (2022-2027) five years.

GCC-EU Joint Action Program

The program was brought in a sense of emergency among the foreign ministers of GCC and EU that was coming in the form of the Ukraine war. The instability of energy supplies and pricing were negatively impacted Europe’s energy dependence, which also constrained its options for handling crucial foreign policy issues with other members. The current joint action program is a wide-ranging partnership of the stakeholders on the basis of energy which was initiated three days before the Ukraine war in February 2022. The cooperation between GCC-EU started in 1989 for several joint ventures including energy programs because Gulf countries can be proved as a source of diversification in Europe’s trade and energy issues. The GCC and European Union are working together for enhanced cooperation in terms of economy, climate action, environment, and energy programs.

The EU-Saudi Ties

Earlier this month, the President of United States Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia. After Biden’s visit, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman is now on his first visit to Europe since the Ukraine war erupted. In his visit to European Union member states, the first stop was Greece. The deal was made by the two countries for multiple bilateral projects including security, military and digital economy. A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has also signed between Greek Foreign Minister and Crown Prince for cooperation in the energy sector, particularly renewable energy efficiency, oil, gas and petrochemical industry. The ruler of Saudi Arabia announced on his visit that the country would use a power connection to connect Riyadh with Greece in order to supply far cheaper green energy to Europe.
After completing visit to Greece, Muhammad Bin Salman met President of France Emmanuel Macron in France on 28th July 20222. The meeting’s top priority was to discuss energy ties and energy supplies as worries about potential power shortages has been intensified as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia reinforced its hold on the Europe’s energy supplies further endangering the economy, important supplies and the European energy market prices which are rising continuously. Europe is suffering Ukraine war effects militarily and implications in terms of geopolitical factors. Other than that it is paying through energy and economic crisis, therefore, Europe is shifting towards Gulf countries in order to fulfill energy needs and reduce its dependence on Russia. Energy security became the key issue for EU member countries, to deal with the problem European countries approached GCC countries that are oil rich to cover the aspects of energy crisis. Initially, GCC member countries were reluctant to increase exports to Europe because of certain production constraints and already exports commitment with Asian countries. The US and its allies including UK, EU member countries sent representatives to major hydrocarbon producer countries to reach an agreement for increasing energy supplies. The current visit of Europe by Saudi Prince and his announcement of providing Europe with cheaper energy can be considered as the result of continued efforts in order to ensure Europe’s Energy Security.

Introduction

Last month, in the presence of NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in a summit, President Biden announced a historic increase in military assistance along Europe’s eastern flank. As NATO agreed to the largest reinforcement of its deterrents since the Cold War in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States pledged additional American soldiers, bombers, and cruisers for Europe. Biden said that the bold military announcements are meant to send a clear message that NATO is united against Russia’s increasing hostilities. Biden welcomed Finland and Sweden as soon-to-be members and promised to defend every inch of NATO territory. It happened after Turkey removed its veto against the two countries agreement. Because of Turkey’s allegations that the two nations supported a Kurdish force in northern Syria, Turkish President Endogen has vowed to veto their bids. Sweden and Finland consented to refrain from supporting militant Kurdish organizations as part of the agreement. Amid of the Ukraine war, Turkey’s inclination towards Russia, its refusal to join sanctions against Russia and to veto Sweden and Finland over its alignment with NATO fueled the debate whether Turkey is moving away from the West. But somehow the agreement managed to reach by Turkey, Sweden and Finland to open the door for the Nordic nations to join NATO. The deal was interpreted as Turkey’s alignment with its Western allies in response to Russian aggression. However, recently the Turkish President met the Russian President Putin which depicts the opposite scenario. Also, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to halt the process of Sweden and Finland membership as a response of not deporting the accused militant organization (PKK).

Monitoring Committee

After the decision was made, a monitoring committee under NATO was formulated. The three countries i.e. Turkey, Finland and Sweden will meet to check the progress of the agreement that took place last month. Turkey which is a 70 years old NATO member has made it clear to block the membership bids of both Finland and Sweden if the requirements of the deal are not fulfilled. Turkey has remained of the opinion that both the countries have actively participated with the militant organization i.e. Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) against the country. As a part of the deal, Finland and Sweden has pledged to not only consider PKK as a terrorist organization as already listed by the United States and European Union. But they will also ensure the prevention of PKK’s activities, all other terrorist groups and their offshoots, as well as of those individuals who are a part of associated networks or groups that are connected to Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in any way. According to experts, when it comes to the definition of terrorism, Sweden, Finland and Turkey are not in agreement, Turkey may face resistance to its request for the extradition of those it considers as terrorists Sweden and Finland may not view certain individuals as terrorists. The Turkish Foreign Minister reiterated in an interview that Turkey will not approve the accession agreement if these nations do not implement the issues outlined in the memorandum signed earlier.

Turkey Urges Support of NATO Allies

The rising threat has been underlined by skyrocketing summer temperatures, with 100 million Americans currently under extreme heat warnings and devastatingly hot circumstances affecting anguish across the Europe has resulted in Joe Biden’s revival of Climate Agenda. On 20th July, while announcing a total of $2.3 billion to assist develop US infrastructure that can resist global disasters, Mr. Joe Biden said “the health of our citizens and our communities is literally at stake, our national security is at stake and our economy is at risk. So we have to act”. He added “Climate change is literally, not figuratively, a clear and present danger”.

As the Russian-Ukraine war continues, there are questions arising about NATO’s intervention in the conflict. If we look at the landscape, member states of NATO are bordered with Ukraine but officially it is not a member ally. Russia has one demand on the table that is non-negotiable which is Ukraine cannot be a part of the organization. However, Ukraine wants to join NATO as a member country and whenever it has floated the idea, internal strife erupt because of the presence of pro-Russian supporters in the Donbas region. Also, Russia has warned of political and military consequences as Putin did in the case of Finland and Sweden’s potential alliance membership. It is not the case that NATO is not intervening in the Ukrainian territory because of the country’s membership, there are some other reasons, as we have seen NATO involving in countries issues that are not its members.

Ukraine is seeking NATO’s help but the foreign ministers rejected any possibility of intervening against Russian forces in Ukraine, whether on the ground or in the air, as stated by Jens Stoltenberg the secretary general of NATO alliances. He has also said that “Allies are agreed upon the fact that we should not have NATO planes operating over Ukrainian airspace or NATO troops operating in Ukrainian territory”. Ukrainian leaders have called for a no-fly zone above Ukraine’s airspace, but NATO is opposed to the idea, fearing that engagement may lead to a confrontation with Russia and might result in a full-fledged war in Europe which will involve many more countries and causing far more damages. Therefore, the stance of NATO is explicit that it will not intervene but will offer assistance while remaining neutral in the conflict.

On the other hand, President Joe Biden of the United States has stated repeatedly that the Western alliance will remain neutral in the war between the two countries as long as Russia does not strike NATO territory. Last month, a summit was held where member countries participated, the Russia-Ukraine issue was discussed in response to which new sanctions against Russia were issued but no military option was mentioned. A British officer has also warned that NATO is not prepared for a conflict with Russia. Since Russia’s invasion began, the Alliance countries have provided weaponry and financial aid to Ukraine, but they have been careful not to engage in any activities that could pull them into the conflict. The other justification for not intervening is that, US has faced the consequences because of war on terror in Afghanistan. It is not going to be popular politically for United States and European countries to enter Ukraine with the help of military forces.

It is clear that NATO is not planning to intervene and sending troops to Ukraine. But it needs strong advocacy and diplomacy and it is more likely that it will continue with weapons supplies, providing diplomatic as well as political support to Ukraine in the ongoing war.